We must rebuild the buttresses that undergird sound development partnerships -- or miss the J-curve, K-wave breakout opportunity presented by the rising AI-economy

 

The Leaky Tyre effect

I am increasingly concerned that the Caribbean is in danger of missing the surging tide of a second technology-driven long wave; which would continue to trap us in malthusian, leaky tyre stagnation instead of allowing us to follow Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, China, Israel and India. (For, in our region, several key states have broken the trend of our own initial J-curve advance across the 1970's to 90's.) 

I am particularly concerned that we are overly influenced by fashionable but outdated and fundamentally unsound neo-marxist thought, agendas and activism that promise liberation but have consistently failed to cultivate either a soundly balanced understanding of our difficult, painful, harm-riddled history, or the cultural, technology and strategic capability-building and sound development partnerships that would buttress our ability to  surf Kondratiev, long-wave transformational, compound growth, J-curve breakout trends. 

Similarly, I am concerned that Christian leaders and influencers across our region are too often either caught up in the same fashionable but failed neo-marxism (often, dressed up in ethical or theological garb but lacking material aspects that would lead to a sounder, Acts 27 influenced balance). 

China's GDP per Capita, since 1960

On this front, I am especially concerned on the subtle relativism of reducing analysis to a matter of clashing "opinions." With, the -- all too predictable -- projection that those who fail to toe the neo-marxist, "critical theory" line are taken in by "propaganda," or are excusing "crimes against humanity," or are stooges of neo-colonialist neo-imperialism . . . language that is itself generations out of date. Out of date? Yes, given what the collapse of the Iron Curtain and the remarkable turnaround of China's economy through opening up to market-led economics all too undeniably demonstrated from the 1980's on. Even Cuba's J-curve -- after a USSR-funded leaky tyre episode (similar to North Korea) -- has a lesson or two for us.

The OECD, 2022: Russia's Application is suspended,

China, India, Indonesia and South Africa are partners

(Applicants -- mostly, Latin America & Europe -- are in lighter blue)

I am further disturbed to see that we are largely ignorant of the UNCTAD-OECD ODA, 1970 on, widespread policy consensus that a well managed commitment by leading economies to give 0.7% of Gross National Income [GNI] to development aid . . . about 2.8% of Government budget (assuming a typical Government scale as 25% of national income) . . . for a full generation, would credibly be sufficient to catalyse breakout from extreme poverty and could help the South to break the malthusian cycle of near flat-line economies and/or leaky tyre, "pump up and leak back down to stagnation" (as we discussed here at KF, last time and over a decade ago). 

This, would require widespread "surf the K-wave" breakthroughs and compounding, self-sustaining growth; causing, a J-curve advance.

We can -- and should -- put a few numbers on this; pardon, if you are disinclined to a bit of financial-economic arithmetic. So, 

- taking a long term trend on GDP growth of 1.5% and 

- using a long-horizon public capital discount rate of 3%,

- starting at current world product [GNI] estimate 100.91 trillion, 

- that would have 50-year annuity present value US$26.9 trillion, and

- at the "typical/traditional" 7% rate, US$13.1 trillion. 

(Not insignificant but feasible -- as this is far cheaper than war and chaos, and also as not posing an impossible, partnership-breaking, credibility undermining trillion-dollar "bill" for a single small island state. Likewise, as the above uses the World Product, it is assuming a matching level of commitment to development funds by all countries: a "skin in the game" strategy. [Later, below, we will need to briefly address "justice" claims and suggestions that this is just "a negotiation opening gambit" -- with what BATNA (= walk-away option), pray, tell?] )

Currently, the 0.7% "international consensus" policy commitment is stated in the globally agreed UN Sustainable Development Goals, Target 17.2:

17.2 Developed countries [= OECD] to implement fully their official development assistance commitments, including the commitment by many developed countries to achieve the target of 0.7 per cent of gross national income for official development assistance (ODA/GNI) to developing countries and 0.15 to 0.20 per cent of ODA/GNI to least developed countries [--> so, ~ 0.50 - 0.55% of GNI would be for the less impoverished but struggling or fragile economies of the S]; ODA providers are encouraged to consider setting a target to provide at least 0.20 per cent of ODA/GNI to least developed countries

Plainly, we cannot afford yet another bout of being caught on the wrong side of Schumpeter's creative destruction. Accordingly, I now invite us to consider another TKI-ChatGPT 5.2 collaboration exercise:

Moving Beyond Rage:
A Civic Creed/Mini-Manifesto for Escaping Stagnation

TKI + ChatGPT 5.2, Dec 25, 2025

Every society eventually reaches a moment when shouting stops working.

The Caribbean is there now.

Motto of the Anti Slavery
Society. Note Philemon:
"15 For this perhaps is why [Onesimus]
was parted from you for a while,
 that you might have him back forever,
16 no longer as a slave but more than a slave,
as a beloved brother-especially to me, but
how much more to you, both in the flesh
 and in the Lord. 17 So if you consider me
 your partner, receive him as you
 would receive me. 18 If he has wronged
you at all, or owes you anything,
charge that to my account."

We face stagnation, rising insecurity, fragile institutions, and a global economy reshaped by artificial intelligence, energy transition, and geopolitical rivalry. Yet our public debates are increasingly driven by anger, accusation, and ideological reflex (influenced by outdated and failed neo-marxist, critical theory activism). Too often, our painful history has been weaponised, not understood; assertions of "justice" have in fact targetted descendants of our fellow oppressed (who, largely through Christian, Biblical ethics such as Epistle to Philemon) took up abolition as the world's first civil rights movement; as a result, too often our politics and policy making have become a contest of denunciation rather than a discipline of prudent, warranted, sober judgment.

This is not sustainable. Economically, morally, socially or politically.

Using the JoHari window (Intel, fallible knowledge form)
to build transparent, stakeholder consensus, strategic 
vision based on agreed, soundly warranted knowledge,
leading to a stable critical mass of support for reformation

What is needed is not amnesia about past wrongs, nor indulgence of present injustices—but a recovery of civic wisdom: the kind that allows plural societies to govern themselves without tearing themselves apart, and to build partnerships for innovation, J-curve breakout and prosperity without abandoning conscience.

Strikingly, the resources for such wisdom are not new. They are ancient—and urgently relevant.

A forgotten truth: what is unjust never truly works

In his final years, even as the Roman Republic collapsed into factional violence, Cicero wrote On Duties. He was not writing for philosophers. He was writing for citizens, officials, soldiers—for anyone whose actions shaped public life.

His core claim was simple and severe: What is right and what is useful never truly conflict.

Cicero is saying something profoundly modern:

• Corruption undermines trust.

• Lies distort information.

• Tyranny destroys initiative.

• Slander fractures cooperation.

In contemporary language: Unjust systems suffer from information failure, incentive failure, and legitimacy failure.

Yes, short-term advantage gained by injustice—through corruption, slander, anger, coercion, manipulation, "gaslighting," or deceit—always corrodes the foundations of long-term success. A state may appear to “get away with it” for a season. But trust -- key "social capital" -- erodes. Information fails. Initiative dies. Political risk rises. Capacity leaks away. Yes, the "brain drain" is a symptom, not a root cause.

Two thousand years later, modern economics tells the same story in different language. Societies that normalise dishonesty, politicised abuse of justice, ugly rhetoric and moral intimidation suffer capital flight, brain drain, institutional decay, loss of the soft societal capital of mutual respect and trustworthiness, and eventually stagnation. No amount of redistribution can compensate for the collapse of trust that creates hard-to-fix leaky tyre, malthusian trap economies.

This is why the current rising tendency to excuse assassination ("he was asking for it . . ."), to justify mass killing of the despised “other,” or to treat slander as activism is not merely immoral—it is economically suicidal.

Conscience, law, and public reason

The biblical tradition reinforces this point in a way that is often misunderstood (or even set-up as a strawman target and knocked over). For example, in Romans 2:13 - 15, the Apostle Paul observes that even those without a formal law code explicitly tracing to the Mosaic tradition . . . often act rightly, guided by conscience.

(Where, as a matter of often overlooked fact, our own Common Law begins with Alfred of the West Saxons in his c. 790 AD Book of Dooms, citing Exodus 20: "When God was speaking to Moses, this is what he said . . .") 

Given common angry reactions, let us note further: Paul's claim is not imposition of  "Christofascist" theological control, but descriptive moral anthropology. Namely:

Human beings are rational, responsible, and morally governed, conscience-guided creatures.

Conscience is not propaganda nor mere dubious, oppressive social conditioning. It is a built-in witness to an intelligible, objectively identifiable  moral order that makes civic life possible. Without it, law becomes mere force. With it, disagreement remains governable.

In Ciceronian terms, we have branch on which we all sit first duties (so, objective, intelligible and indeed self-evident: one who tries to deny these, inescapably actually must appeal to them to try to make his argument stick . . . ) Yes, the canons of a creation-order, conscience-guided, built-in, first law. These first duties are in fact, the roots of "the natural law." So, we have conscience-attested, known duties --

1st: to truth

2nd: to right reason

3rd: to prudence (including, warrant)

4th: to sound conscience,

5th: to neighbour, so too

6th: to fairness and

7th: to justice

. . . 

xth: etc. 

That is why the ancient law of Israel, in Leviticus 19:15 - 18, insisted—not sentimentally, but sternly—that justice be impartial, that slander be rejected, that vengeance be restrained, and that neighbours reason frankly with one another. These were not pious ideals. They were anti-civil-war rules. So, let's read the actual original context for the famous Golden Rule:

Lev. 19: 15 “You shall do no injustice in court. You shall not be partial to the poor or defer to the great, but in righteousness shall you judge your neighbor. 16 You shall not go around as a slanderer among your people, and you shall not stand up against the life  of your neighbor: I am the LORD. 

 17 “You shall not hate your brother in your heart, but you shall reason frankly with your neighbor, lest you incur sin because of him. 18 You shall not take vengeance or bear a grudge against the sons of your own people, but you shall love your neighbor as yourself: I am the LORD. 

Similarly, respect for property is a key plank for the economy, and sound sexual morality stabilises the foundation of society, the family rooted in the husband-wife bond. Ignore such rules, and societies radicalise, polarise and lose cohesion, going into an ill-disciplined,  self-destructive, shipwreck-bound, Acts 27 voyage-of-folly, delusional spiral of ruinous malthusian, beggar-my-neighbour chaos . . . and make the fatal cry for a strong man to save us -- so, let us again hear Ps 146:3 Put not your trust in princes, in a son of man, in whom there is no salvation. Observe them, even (inevitably) imperfectly, and the fabric of mutual respect, trustworthiness and neighbourliness generally survives.

A corrective political spectrum

One reason our debates are so distorted and angry is that we have inherited a shallow political map: “left versus right,” a framework shaped by the seating in the early revolutionary French National Assembly (1789), and made utterly outdated by collapse of the key old European monarchies after the First World War -- the historic anchor of "the right." These "key" collapsed monarchies are the Russian, Austrian & German Empires, with the Ottoman Caliphate following by 1924. 

A more historically grounded spectrum is far older -- we can readily trace elements in the Exodus story or the Chronicles and in the debate between Aristotle and Plato alike, can see concerns in the history of Athens' failure through the Peloponnesian War. It is also more realistic:

Autocracy → Oligarchy → Democracy (properly buttressed) → Anarchic chaos

Seen from this long- arc- of- history viewpoint, stable, lawful, rights-protecting, sustainable democracy is not . . . repeat, NOT . . . the default state of humanity. It is in manifest, sobering fact a rare achievement, made possible only when citizens are sufficiently educated, morally formed, civic-minded, and institutionally protected to participate without destroying the state itself.

Similarly, given the trillion dollar bill recently put on the table as a solution to our troubles, we must pause to speak to our pain, raising some balancing concerns:

Focally, the Caribbean is not uniquely wounded; it is uniquely early. It experienced globalisation, colonisation, associated labour flows (including a particularly vicious case of slavery, for centuries), and resulting identity complexity centuries before the rest of the world. Our tragedy is not that we were oppressed and mixed — but that we are challenged to build institutions and a common vision strong enough to hold that mixture together, reconciling and healing our pain. Arguably, Hawaii did. New Zealand has made a gallant effort. Similarly, arguably, Singapore did (in the face of potential civil war and/or invasion). Others, are learning. We can too — if we stop mistaking grievance for strategy . . . or, for vision.

Elaborating, we need Moral clarity about our painful, as yet unfinished past of slavery, the triangular trade system (and the older linked, root trades across the Sahara, the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean [not least, the 869AD on, Zanj rebellion . . . including, its sugar cane farming context]), the plantation, and colonisation (by Spain, Holland, France, The UK, even Denmark and Sweden . . . with a touch of Polish involvement as subject troops from Napoleon's empire sent to Haiti). Clarity, that

• arises from truthful, balanced, objectively warranted description of reality
  
• accepts complexity, tragedy, mixed motives, and unintended consequences (e.g. "Old World" diseases devastated "New World" populations  long before the germ theory of disease was established or viruses were identified; similar in many ways to the waves of the Black Death, bubonic plague [which from 1346 on, wiped out ~ 1/3 of Europe's population] . . . and which, still lurks)
• binds truth, right reason, prudence, and conscience together
• aims at repair, restraint, and future-oriented justice and good order
  
• recognising, that it is not in the gift of mortal man to establish final justice
  
• is willing to say: this was wrong, this was mixed, this was constrained, this must not be repeated

Thus, we must correct simplistic moralism that instead

• weaponises our pain rather than healing it
• steamrollers multidimensional, painfully nuanced history into accusation and 
• stigmatises the other with scarlet letter indelible, hereditary guilt-branding
• selects a single moral axis and absolutises it
• thrives on outrage rather than responsibility
• seeks moral leverage, not moral truth
• locks people into equally hereditable grievance identities that disable future-building

Or, more starkly:

Moral clarity seeks to bind wounds; ill-advised moralism seeks to reopen them for power.

That is why such simplistic, one-dimensional, flattened moralism:

• resists the prudent restraints and limits of sound developmental policy,
• distrusts and slanders or even attacks competence that dares to be independent-minded,
• may open the door to ideologically driven stigmatising and murderous targetting of scapegoated minorities (or even, outright lawless reigns of terror),
• undermines investment climates (forgetting that "investment is a flighty bird"),
• and ultimately reproduces the Malthusian trap it claims to oppose.

Pain becomes currency. Rage becomes negative social capital. But, with predictably damaging effect. For, when our pain is mobilised into steamroller, juggernaut, simplistic moral narratives:

• social cohesion fractures,
• policy horizons shrink, 
• innovation and technological capacity dry up,
• external partners disengage quietly and walk away, 
• Smart money leaks out to greener pastures, and 
• the poor pay the price yet again.

This is not mere theory. It is the damaging pattern of our past generation, reflected in aborted J-curve takeoffs that became immiserating malthusian trends. For specific further example, when descendants of the powerless lower classes under oligarchic overlords in the years 1626 - 1834/38 (now the UK's  tax base) who  through Awakening rose up in the first modern civil rights movement, against slavery and its kidnapping based trade, find themselves targetted with impossible trillion dollar bills, for cause they will silently disengage from us and our claims; including, quietly walking away from "negotiations" that start with irreconcilable polarisation and stigmatisation like that. (Ever wondered why negotiations that play bad faith, hardball opening gambit cards like that typically drag on and on then peter out fruitlessly?) Likewise, with the grim C20 record of the holocaust -- and the horrific fate of those who failed to flee quickly -- on the table: when angry demagogues come to power, the proverbial brain drain and capital-capacity flight will predictably accelerate to catastrophic levels.

History shows that when cultural-moral buttresses weaken, democracies do not smoothly “correct themselves.” They slide—often rapidly—into oligarchy, strongman rule, or violent fragmentation. That is why Herodotus and Thucydides wrote their living memory histories of Athens, and it is why in the Acts, Luke makes sure to emphasise again and again, just how dangerous and open to lawless impulses the mob is. In more recent times, the Reichstag fire incident makes for grim reading.

The Caribbean’s challenge, then, is not to chant democratic slogans, but to rebuild the conditions that make lawful, prudent, sustainable democracy viable.

A civic creed for policy and public life

From these traditions—classical, biblical, and historical—we can distil a simple civic creed, not as dogma, but as operating principles suitable for children in schools, journalists editing the news, and even policy-makers:

1. Truth before advantage Public life must be governed and disciplined by accurate description of reality. Persistent falsehood, unruliness, willful error or slander is the seed-plot of injustice, scape-goating, marches of folly, disaster.

2. Right reason with adequate warrant Decisions must be justified by sound, balanced evidence and carefully worked through, disciplined logic [which is not a mere cultural/ racial/ class imposition], not rage, slogans, mob impulses or tribal loyalty.

3. Prudence over impulse What feels righteous in the moment may be ruinous in the long run. For, what sweet nanny goat mouth run 'im belly.

4. Conscience as guardian Not everything legal is legitimate or wise; not everything popular or self-indulgent is right or healthy (or, prudent -- a main facet of wisdom).

5. Neighbour-regard Policy must be capable of coherence across the whole community, not tailored to humiliate, target or exclude the despised other. Where, too, God is our first neighbour, and our host. (Yes, never mind that this is "controversial" -- and even quietly "unmentionable" -- in a radically secularist age: if our "leading lights" hold God . . . the ultimate root of reality, of goodness, of truth and of wisdom . . . in contempt and seek to marginalise him, predictably, society heads for ruinous, lawless chaos.)

6. Fairness and justice Partiality—to rich or poor, powerful or marginal—is equally corrosive.

7. Forbearance without appeasement of evil Patience is not surrender; reform is not revenge.

This creed is not “conservative” or “progressive.” It is pro-civilisational.

A path to reform and takeoff

What does this mean in practice?

The ancient, parable-based wisdom of Joshua Davidson has as

yet many insights for today. Here, he envisions how a tiny, humble

seed draws on its environment, sprouts, grows and provides gradual

transformation of a harsh, semi-arid environment, thus giving

shade, shelter, structure & support to the birds of the air. This

extends from the individual & family, to the enterprise, community,

society, civilisation & world. Are we planting & nurturing mustard seeds?

First, we must abandon the illusion that money alone delivers development. Capital without capacity leaks away. Curriculum is Industrial Policy by another means -- and, STE[A^2]M Educators . . . yes,  our teachers of  "Sci -Tech (embracing, too, Design)," of "Engineering," of "Arts [including, Multimedia Authoring]," of "Agriculture" & of "Mathematics" . . . ChatGPT 5 is looking straight at you. For, education and skill-building are now upstream to economic & societal transformation in an AI-driven world. Yes, upstream of national destiny. The real work of K-wave transformation and J-curve breakout  from the ever-lurking malthusian trend is thus cumulative, wisdom-driven, educational, generational and patient. 

Yes, too, we cannot readily see the slow but very real growth of the mustard seed into a tree as it occurs, day-by-day, but unless we take the courage of faith and plant the tiny seed and persistently nurture it every day, every year, decade-by-decade, the birds will lack shade, shelter, safety and branches to build their nests on. So, we must prioritise:

• Reliable energy to power industry and services. (And yes, in an AI-driven age where we will need to own our own AI utilities, that includes reconsidering the nuclear option, not just fashionable -- but often, highly fluctuating -- "renewables.")

• Digital productivity—including AI—as tools for small business, agriculture, logistics, research and education. 

(Should we accede to Open Source technology covenants for AI, for technical and office productivity software, and generally? Should we embed such Open Source software, including the Linux Operating System and its derivatives such as Android, Raspberry Pi OS and Chrome in our education, research and Government software systems? What of the broader Maker Movement? Could the Raspberry Pi ecosystem be a key digital productivity and educational platform for our region? Should we refactor our approach to Mathematics, as the  foundational core of the now central general purpose technology . . . computation; being, [i:] the disciplined study of [ii:] the logic of [iii:] structure and quantity?

The computer in action

(Where, computers, with suitable interfaces, sensors, instruments & actuators backed by AI, are now "intelligent," general purpose, "universal" machines capable of doing "anything" they can figure out. Thus, too, computing, is automated information transformation that applies the logic of structure and quantity [= Mathematics], through algorithms [= stepwise input > process > output methods], to drive productivity. So, too, Mathematics is now the "grammar" and "logical back-bone" of modern productivity, it is not just a "[boring] subject" in school.)

 

How will we move beyond "ICT/IT" to coding, multimedia and AI prompt writing competence for all, backed by deep understanding of computation, underlying Mathematics and digital technology? For, a K-wave is already rising at full flood . . . )

• Human capital grounded in competence, not credential inflation.

• Capacity-building education & skill-building as a key component of the 0.7% GNI commitment, perhaps through a global Sir Arthur Lewis University, with a Richard Skemp College of Education and Capacity and Entrepreneurship that curates a global reference curriculum, K - 12 and Associate level, perhaps partly modelled on existing world class systems, say, Singapore for K-12 and the International Baccalaureate, CXC and similar systems for secondary and first level tertiary, delivering a globally portable Associate degree. 

(I, here, strongly encourage the Raspberry Pi ecosystem for a computing for all component, and for the interfacing, automation and control modules. For languages, I suggest Scratch [block language, age 7+] > Python ["the new BASIC"] > Java [Gateway to the tech infrastructure backbone C family and to various computing paradigms], and perhaps Mathematica for calculation, given the "free" version made available by Wolfram. A key class project would be a computer-controlled, drip irrigation system for garden plants.)

• Entrepreneurship ecosystems that reward problem-solving, not proximity to power.

• Institutional integrity, trustworthiness and discipline that make long-term investment rational.

This is why countries like South Korea and Singapore escaped poverty while others with similar histories did not. Not because they were spotlessly, perfectly morally pure—but because they refused to let ideological theatrics and toxic rhetoric override disciplined policy.

Second, we must reject polarising fantasies—whether trillion-dollar reparations claims for a few hundred thousand people detached from institutional reality, or cynical calls to paper over our deep wounds and “forget the past.” Neither builds the future. Genuine partnership anchored in warranted truth, forbearance and reconciliation does.

Global frameworks already exist—such as the long-standing commitment by developed nations to devote a small but not insignificant share of national income to development. Properly focused over decades on capacity rather than consumption, such resources could be transformative. But, only if recipient societies cultivate the moral and institutional soil in which they can take root.

A curriculum unit we urgently need

Finally, this wisdom must be taught—not only to students, but to those who dominate public discourse.

A single secondary-school or early tertiary module could include:

1. The Ship of State Plato’s parable, paired with the real-world case study of Acts 27, showing how prudence is often ignored before crises and painfully rediscovered during them (including, in that light, a discussion of the key buttresses of lawful, sustainable democratic self-government).

2. Cicero on duty and public service Exploring why injustice undermines utility, and why corruption is never merely “pragmatic.”

3. The moral foundations of law Conscience, renewal of sound natural law (including Ciceronian first duties), and the limits of power.

4. Democracy’s prerequisites Why literacy, free speech (so, freedom of a responsible press), restraint, discipline and moral norms matter more than slogans.

5. Case studies of takeoff and stagnation Korea (S and N), Singapore, the Caribbean (esp. Ja, BB, Haiti, Cuba, the DR)—without romanticism or fatalism.

This would not indoctrinate. It would inoculate—against rage, over-simplification, and despair.

Where, as there are ever ready dismissive talking points that try to set aside examples of J-curve breakout, let us pause to note:

South Korea and Singapore did not grow because they were authoritarian; they grew because they restored disciplined order, protected investment, and built trust—and the bulk of their sustained take-off came after the most authoritarian phase had passed. Authority was used, sometimes harshly, to suppress predation and establish credibility in post-war chaos; steady, generation-length compounding growth did the rest. This is why the standard retort—“Lee Kuan Yew was a dictator”—misses the point: North Korea was more authoritarian and collapsed, while Japan, Israel, Taiwan, India, and later China show that growth follows investor confidence, not repression. Indeed, Japan's earlier rise was largely oligarchic, but its post-war recovery and rise to the global top tier was democratic. Democracy is not a suicide pact, but neither is it a licence for polarisation, slander, indiscipline or policy incoherence, recklessness and imprudence. Where moral and civic buttresses restrain faction and reward competence, democratic societies can sustain the long discipline required for J-curve take-off. Where they do not, stagnation follows—regardless of ideology.

The choice before us

The Caribbean stands at a moment of decision. Artificial intelligence, energy transition, and global realignment offer unprecedented opportunity—but also amplify the cost of error.

We can continue down a path of polarisation, slander, indiscipline and moral exhibitionism, and watch stagnation harden into full-bore malthusian decline.

Or we can recover a disciplined, wisdom-driven public-spiritedness older than our ideologies, firmer than our resentments, and more demanding than our slogans.

History suggests that only the latter path leads out of the Malthusian trap.

The choice is ours—if we are still willing to reason together. END

The K-wave, Economic development challenge: breaking out of the Malthusian trend through surfing Kondratiev long waves -- evidence and remarks

 The Economy Is Not a Fixed Pie: What the Charts Are Quietly Telling the Caribbean

GEM/TKI + ChatGPT 5.2

There are moments when charts speak more clearly than speeches.

A set of long-run economic charts — drawn from respected international sources — compare countries that started poor and became rich, countries that began with promise and stalled, and countries that once stood side by side but today live in different economic universes.

Taken together, they tell a story the Caribbean cannot afford to ignore. We will begin with the two Koreas, as this natural experiment -- sadly, for North Korea -- tells a story of breakout from the immiseration pointed out by Malthus in 1798, and of relapse due to a leaky tyre economy. A story we must heed.

Two Koreas, One Starting Line, Two Destinies

In the early 1950s, North and South Korea emerged from a devastating war. Both were shattered. Both were poor. Both faced geopolitical pressure and scarce resources. Neither had oil, gold, or vast land.

Today, South Korea is a high-income industrial power. North Korea remains trapped in scarcity.

What matters here is not ideology or rhetoric, but results over time. When their economies are placed on the same chart, using the same scale, one line bends sharply upward decade after decade. The other rises briefly, flattens, and then sinks.

This divergence did not happen overnight. It took patience, discipline, and institutional consistency. South Korea invested heavily in skills, industry, exports, and technology. It made mistakes—but it learned from them. Growth was allowed to compound.

North Korea never built the machinery that turns effort into lasting capacity. Short-term surges faded. The system could not hold gains.

The lesson is blunt: growth that cannot be retained is not growth.

Singapore and Jamaica: The Comparison That Still Hurts

Closer to home, the comparison between Singapore and Jamaica is even more unsettling.

In the late 1960s, Jamaica stood close to the world average in income per person. Singapore was poorer. Both were newly independent, ethnically diverse, politically tense, and strategically exposed. Neither had natural resources to spare.

Then the lines separate.

Singapore’s income rises steadily, crossing the world average and continuing upward. Jamaica’s flattens—and slowly slips below the global trend.

One detail matters deeply: the break occurs in the early 1970s, around a major political turning point. From that moment, Jamaica’s economy never recovers its early momentum. What had looked like the beginning of a takeoff becomes a long plateau.

This is not a moral judgment. It is a structural one.

Once an economy loses momentum—once confidence, continuity, and investment learning are disrupted—it is extraordinarily hard to restart the engine.

Barbados Shows the Middle Ground—and the Limit

Adding Barbados to the picture sharpens the point.

Barbados has been more stable, more institutionally consistent, and more cautious than Jamaica. Its income per person rises higher and holds better. But it does not break away. It does not compound into high-income status.

This matters because it shows that stability alone is not enough. To truly escape, countries must do something more difficult: they must build productivity year after year, generation after generation.

 It is helpful to insert the original case, the UK:

We see here, both the pattern of a beginning of a J-curve takeoff and a leaky tyre injection, surge and relapse due to the Wars over the French Revolution. Illustrating:

Notably absent, however, is strong evidence of a J-curve takeoff in the Williams thesis window that causally leads to where we see the UK now.  This does not mean slavery linked finance and sea trade were not part of the UK’s development story; just, that it was a baked in part of the essentially pre-industrial revolution transformational system. The UK's real sustained J-curve takeoff is mid-late in C19, with mobile steam engines [railroads, steam ships], high volume low cost steel [Bessemer and Open Hearth], electricity, chemicals and increasingly concrete, also early telecommunications [telegraphy, telephony, later on wireless].

It is this context that led Mackinder to suggest that "heartland" continental powers would emerge to challenge Mahan's sea power domination of the world. Indeed, the history of C20 can be analysed in terms of two German pushes and one by Russia. Sadly, the current war in Ukraine can be seen as a C21 renewal of that pattern, driven by Russia's perpetual fear of encirclement.

Similarly, for other Caribbean territories and the “fragile” economies:

Here, we see the typical fragile economy looks a lot like Haiti, and Jamaica is just a bit better than the average for such, on level. But, there are two cases of a struggling but sustained J-curve breakaway, The Dominican Republic and Cuba. The latter also includes an almost text-book leaky tyre episode, a chilling parallel to the case of North Korea, where in both cases the collapse of the USSR led to economic relapse. Sadly, for North Korea that malthusian trend pattern meant famine with perhaps a million deaths.

Yes, we are looking at a strongly stamped general pattern, where general purpose technology driven Kondratiev waves stack to feed a long term, compounding action exponential growth that results in J-curves.

The Middle-Income Trap Is Not a Theory—it Is a Crowd

When economists talk about the “middle-income trap,” they are not speculating. They are describing a crowded place.

Most countries that reach moderate income levels stop there. Only a handful push through: Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Israel, Ireland.

What do these countries have in common?

Not perfection. Not ideology. Not even the absence of corruption.

They share something more practical:

• long-term policy credibility,

• serious investment in skills and technology,

• export competitiveness,

• and institutions that learn rather than reset every election cycle.

They found ways to turn sacrifice today into capacity tomorrow.

Technology Is the Escape Route—And the Risk

Every successful breakout coincides with a technological wave.

The United States’ post-war surge followed massive investment in science and engineering. East Asia’s rise rode electronics and manufacturing. The digital revolution transformed global productivity again.

Now we stand at the edge of another wave: artificial intelligence, automation, and advanced digital systems.

This is not science fiction. It is already reshaping logistics, health care, education, finance, and manufacturing.

For small economies, the danger is not adoption—it is late adoption.

When productivity tools spread unevenly, those who move early compound advantages. Those who hesitate fall behind even if they “grow.”

The Quiet Killers: Energy Costs and Credibility

Two silent factors appear again and again in the charts.

First, energy costs. High, unreliable electricity prices quietly suffocate productivity. They punish factories, offices, data systems, and households alike. No economy can modernise on unstable power.

Second, credibility. Investors, engineers, and entrepreneurs do not respond to speeches. They respond to signals. Threatening language, policy reversals, and politicised economics impose costs even when no law changes.

Growth requires trust in the future.

The Caribbean’s Narrow Window

The Caribbean does not lack talent. It does not lack ideas. It does not lack access to technology.

What it lacks—dangerously—is time.

Once an economy settles into low growth, reversing course becomes exponentially harder. Debt rises. Young people leave. Institutions hollow out. The charts flatten.

The choice is not between left and right, state and market, or ideology and pragmatism.

The choice is simpler—and harsher:

Do we build the capacity to grow steadily, quietly, and relentlessly—or do we continue mistaking temporary relief for progress?

The economy is not a fixed pie. But it is also not infinitely forgiving.

The charts are already drawn. The only question left is whether we choose to learn from them—or add ourselves to them. END

"J'Accuse . . . !" 8: Failing the Isaiah 53-1 Cor 15 test (the spotless, pierced, risen, salvific Lamb of God)

 Exhibit A, The Great Isaiah Scroll, from Cave 1, Qumran, c 125 BC, Isaiah being c 700 BC:

Setting this in due -- but, too often overlooked -- context:

And now, our needed indictment, for:

Dear Intelligentsia, 

We must again indict, for here we have a clear case of prophecy 700+ years before the absolutely pivotal on-the-ground event; which -- ironically, given its focus on a redemptive, transformational  Messiah "despised and rejected of men" -- is by and large sidelined, distracted from, dismissed, or even scorned or forgotten. That event, is the suffering servant, "pierced" Messiah, put to death through judicial malfeasance of corrupt Jerusalem and Roman elites, but thereby bearing our sins and rising from the dead with five hundred unstoppable witnesses, who bears our sorrows, sets us free from sin-guilt and is our Wounded Healer, who makes us whole. Thus, launching, the gospel mission to the world, which yet continues. 

Yes, yes, we know. It is all too easy to play the trifecta fallacy game: a red herring side-tracks us, led away to a strawman soaked in ad hominems and set alight, clouding, confusing, poisoning and polarising the atmosphere, thus frustrating sober, responsible discussion. Yes, the Christian church has too often been guilty of grave wrongs and hypocrisies. Yes, we are well aware that for a thousand years strained alternative, non messianic interpretations have been put forth (and the chapter has been suppressed in reading cycles). Yes, we know another major movement's founder outright dismissed that Jesus was crucified (rendering it discredited historically). Yes, we know, many have been misled through hyperskepticism, to doubt that there was an actual Jesus of Nazareth. And more . . . a whole YouTube full of more, none of which -- per right of fair comment on good grounds -- is responsible.

It is high time for us to turn from such and actually deal with the matter.

First, Isaiah 53 stands, here as a C2 BC Hebrew Manuscript for an epochal document from C8 BC, penned by the prince of prophets (Isaiah); also attested by the similarly dated Septuagint translation. A text that speaks so obviously about a specific individual, that, were such historical provenance not so firm, it would have most likely been dismissed as an after the fact pious fraud . . . the almost standard hyperskeptical dismissal tactic used for several other inconveniently telling scriptural prophecies.  (For shame!)

Indeed, Wikipedia, that notoriously skeptical (and often harshly censorious) source, is forced to concede:

Isaiah 52:13–53:12 makes up the fourth of the "Servant Songs" of the Book of Isaiah, describing a "servant" of God who is abused and looked down upon but eventually vindicated.^[2]

Major themes of the passage include:

• Human opposition to God’s purposes for the servant: Although the servant is exalted by God (Isaiah 52:13), he is despised and rejected by people, who wrongly assume he is cursed and hated by God (Isaiah 53:3).
• The servant’s violent torture and death: The passage uses graphic language—smitten, afflicted, wounded, crushed, bruised, cut off, and exposed to death—to describe the servant’s brutal suffering.
• Prophetic incredulity: The prophet expresses amazement at the message, asking who will believe such an unexpected and counterintuitive report (Isaiah 53:1).
• The servant’s innocence: Despite his suffering, the servant does not retaliate or speak deceitfully. He is described as entirely blameless—free of violence and lies (Isaiah 53:7, 9).
• Blessings upon his persecutors: Through his suffering, the servant brings peace and healing to those who reject him, and he bears their guilt so they may be released from punishment (Isaiah 53:5–6, 8, 12).
• The vindication of the servant after death: Though he dies violently, the servant is ultimately vindicated—he lives again, prospers, and fulfills the will of the Lord (Isaiah 53:10).
• Extending righteousness to others: The servant is called “righteous,” and through his suffering, he enables many to be made righteous as well (Isaiah 53:11).
• Forgiveness and intercession: By bearing their iniquities, the servant secures forgiveness for many and intercedes on their behalf (Isaiah 53:6, 12).

The passage's themes include a wide variety of ethical subjects, including guilt, innocence, violence, injustice, adherence to the divine will, repentance, and righteousness.

In short, if we are to properly understand, apply and live by the power of the gospel, we must understand this pivotal OT messianic prophecy and its documented fulfillment, as is recorded in the C1 NT and backed by the 500 witnesses. 

Let us therefore draw out some key points, looking from 52:10 on:

• We have here, The Gospel According to Isaiah, the scriptural root of the NT theology of the gospel and of atonement as key to the gospel -- i.e. the real "fifth Gospel" [actually, the FIRST, a powerful, fulfilled prophecy c 700 BC] . . . yes, there is no need to go hunting for Gnostic texts of dubious provenance in some quixotic search for an allegedly hidden mystery
• In Ch 52:10, after the famed text on how blessed are the feet of those who bring good news that God's Kingdom prevails, we see a universal context: "The LORD has bared his holy arm before the eyes of all the nations, and all the ends of the earth shall see the salvation of our God." Yes, the focus is a gospel of salvation with power that goes out to all the earth.
• Then, in v 13 we meet the [Suffering, Wounded Healer, saving] Servant of God, "my servant shall act wisely; he shall be high and lifted up, and shall be exalted." (Do not overlook the irony of two senses of being lifted up: shamefully mistreated by judicial murder -- accursed is he who is hanged on a tree; but also saving us through life for a look of penitent trust. And yet, v. 15, "kings shall shut their mouths because of him.")
• As ch 53 opens, we see the great rejection: "1 Who has believed what he has heard from us? And to whom has the arm of the LORD been revealed?" (Yes, that same "holy arm" from 52:10. The powers that be, the movers and shakers, in envious, spiritually blind jealousy for their influence and power, react on cruel mockery, dismissive scorn and injustice to messiah. So, THE WHOLE THEME IN THE FOUR GOSPELS AND ACTS ON THE REJECTION OF JESUS BY THE ELITES IS ITSELF A SUBTLE COMMENTARY ON ISA 53. Yes, too, the innocent, specific, lamb of God messiah, not a nation being judged for its stubborn sin, repeated disloyalty to God and refusal to heed its prophets. That nation, that the loving God is acting to redeem through the one being despised and rejected. Irony upon irony, calling for discernment. And, for penitence.) 
  
• But instead, the servant is lovingly compassionate and redemptive: " 4 Surely he has borne our griefs and carried our sorrows . . . 5  But he was pierced [cf Zech 12: 10 “And I will pour out on the house of David and the inhabitants of Jerusalem a spirit of grace and pleas for mercy, so that, when they look on me, on him whom they have pierced, they shall mourn for him, as one mourns for an only child, and weep bitterly over him, as one weeps over a firstborn" (also cf. Rev 1:7)] for our transgressions; he was crushed for our iniquities; upon him was the chastisement that brought us peace, and with his wounds we are healed."
• Here, we see facets of salvation: justification as sins are forgiven and new -- eternal -- transformational life is imparted, deliverance from demonic bondage, healing within and without; all, in due order of the already and not yet. (Again, note that as resurrection is the ultimate healing, healing cannot be extracted from the work of atoning, lamb of God messiah: he heals, in the Gospels, through his church, these being a foretaste and deposit on what shall be in fulness when he comes in full glory.)
•  Next, Messiah, is our Saviour, our redeemer who bears our sins so we may have God's forgiveness: "6  All we like sheep have gone astray; we have turned—every one—to his own way;  and the LORD has laid on him the iniquity of us all." (Thus, too we see why in Rev 1:7 "all tribes of the earth will wail  on account of him" as every man-jack of us is a guilty sinner, all of us are responsible and guilty. Jew and gentile alike, guilty, guilty, guilty are we all, with the fatal venom of sin in our veins. Yes, that's why resurrection like that of Ezekiel's army of the defeated dry bones is the ultimate healing. Life, for a look of penitent trust. And yes, that healing power for body and soul alike is confirmed in the NT, as an application of this text, cf. Mt 8:14 - 17 and 1 Pet 2:21 - 25, esp. 24 . . . this being, a short exposition on Isa 53 by Peter! Of course, that transformation of wholeness comes in due eschatological order, as the already and the not yet apply.)
• Indeed, he is the Lamb of God: "7 He was oppressed, and he was afflicted,  yet he opened not his mouth;  like a lamb that is led to the slaughter, and like a sheep that before its shearers is silent, so he opened not his mouth." 
• Contrast, the corrupt rulers, who are responsible to God for justice: "8 By oppression and judgment he was taken away; and as for his generation, who considered that he was cut off out of the land of the living, stricken for the transgression of my people?" (Sounds familiar? Pilate, Caiaphas, Herod et al, we are looking at you: what did you do to a manifestly innocent man, why? Do you think you can so easily wash your hands of the blood guilt of judicial murder? Repent, today, as you hear his voice, and seek forgiveness!)
• The all too familiar specifics continue, yes prophetically written c 700 BC -- we can even call the name, Joseph of Arimathea: "9 And they made his grave with the wicked and with a rich man in his death, although he had done no violence, and there was no deceit in his mouth."
• Then, breakthrough -- resurrection: "10 Yet it was the will of the LORD to crush him; he has put him to grief; when his soul makes  an offering for guilt, he shall see his offspring; he shall prolong his days;  the will of the LORD shall prosper in his hand." (God reveals his holy arm, by the sign and power of prophesied, fulfilled, resurrection . . . with 500 un-stoppable witnesses.)
• And so, Saviour: "11 Out of the anguish of his soul he shall see  and be satisfied; by his knowledge shall the righteous one, my servant,  make many to be accounted righteous,  and he shall bear their iniquities." (Now, across 2,000 years, millions upon millions join to joyfully testify about the redemptive power of that once despised, rejected, judicially murdered, but risen Messiah. And yes, kings and queens have been among that number.)
• Thence, let us duly take notice of the official testimony of the 500 Witnesses, c 35 AD, written down for us c 55 AD:

1 Cor 15: 1 Now I would remind you, brothers,  of the gospel I preached to you, which you received, in which you stand, 2 and by which you are being saved, if you hold fast to the word I preached to you— unless you believed in vain. 

 3 For I delivered to you as of first importance what I also received: 

that Christ died for our sins in accordance with the Scriptures, 

4 that he was buried, 

that he was raised on the third day in accordance with the Scriptures, 5 and

that he appeared 

to Cephas, then to the twelve. 6 Then he appeared to more than five hundred brothers at one time, most of whom are still alive, though some have fallen asleep. 7 Then he appeared to James, then to all the apostles. 8 Last of all, as to one untimely born, he appeared also to me . . . 11 Whether then it was I or they, so we preach and so you believed.

The matter is actually blatant, and is manifestly utterly foundational. 

So, let us heed the power of prophecy and let us turn to Him who is the revealed arm of the almighty, our Messiah, risen with 500 witnesses. END