Monday, March 03, 2014

The sobering situation with the Ukraine . . . disturbing parallels to 1938

All I want to say just now, is that it looks uncommonly like the 1938 dismemberment of Czechoslovakia by Germany, starting with the German moves to "protect" the Sudeten German minority. 

Ukraine in context, with the ethnic divisions (HT: Airing News)

Thanks to Wikipedia, a run-down of the 1938 crisis:


And, back in 2008, the much derided Sarah Palin gave a clear warning, on "crisis scenario number four" -- videotape:

CNN has a report in which it was forced to acknowledge this (though it trivialises as "a bragging rights moment"):
In 2008, when she was the GOP vice presidential nominee, Palin questioned in a speech whether then-Sen. Barack Obama would have the foreign policy credentials to handle a scenario in which Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine.

"After the Russian army invaded the nation of Georgia, Senator Obama's reaction was one of indecision and moral equivalence – the kind of response that would only encourage Russia's Putin to invade Ukraine next," she said in Reno, Nevada on October 21, 2008. 
CNN was also forced to admit that, "[i]n October 2008, Foreign Policy [a major magazine of the US Foreign Policy Establishment] labeled Palin's prediction as "strange." 

Shoe's on the other foot now.

In short, Palin saw it coming, five years ago . . . something that the analogy of the 1930's would point to. 

Where, the same analogy points to trouble in the Persian Gulf.

I truly hope we are not going back to such a dark era of Democratic state fecklessness in the face of rising aggressive states as the 1930's were. But we must not ever overlook that Syria, Iran and Russia are allies. And, already there are disturbing parallels in the Middle East.

And guess what: Poland -- shades of 1938 --  is a neighbour of Ukraine, with the former East Prussia to its East, now in Russian hands.

Poland must be very, very glad it is a member in good standing of NATO.

I think I have a nauseous, queasy feeling in the pit of my stomach. END