Saturday, March 08, 2014

A heads I win, tails you lose ballot in the Ukraine, and geostrategic reflections

Over at UD, I have been doing the experiment of a newswatch post on the unfolding Crimea crisis, following up from the last KF post on the crisis in the Ukraine. As one benefit, JG has put us on to Kyiv Post online newspaper. 

This has an article on the ballot for the announced referendum on whether Crimea should join Russia. 

It turns out that voters are given two choices: 
[a] Yes, right away

[b] Yes, after a suitable delay and a (fictional) independence
Shades of 1938, it seems:

Proposed Crimea Yes, yes ballot (HT: Kyiv Post)
 Sad, sickly sad.

We can now take it to the bank that Putin is up to no good, either in Russia or beyond Russia's borders.

And, it is obvious that the Western powers are again caught out fumbling in the face of rising aggression by a European strongman. With ghosts from the 1930's warning us in no uncertain terms on consequences.

I also did a bit of onward geostrategic reflection on events in Ukraine that I think is worth sharing here at KF:
First, the USA is the successor to the British Empire as leading oceanic power. 

That means that global trade is critically dependent on US capacity and will to hold the trade choke points open, whether regionally significant or globally significant. (That is how Britain — for all its sins — held the line open from 1805 – 15 on to 1914, securing a base for the first waves of industrialised global trade and progress that forever changed the world.)

The problem is, America is also its own continent in a state, and tends to want to ignore the wider world, save in fits and starts; the sustained 40 year Cold War effort being the exception triggered by the existential threat of Soviet nukes. Even that was hard to sustain.

From 1979 on, WW IV has been building up as a slow burn conflict with resurgent Islamism allied to remnants of revanchist losers of the Cold War, de facto WW III.

The 9/11 attacks, a decapitation strike attempt, should be seen in that light, as should the ongoing Iranian sprint to nukes now being given cover by Russia, an Iranian ally.

The US post 9/11 strategy was to hit Afghanistan and Iraq not only for their own value but as strategic pincers for Iran. Then, the forces of freedom in Iran should have been backed to the hilt . . . the 2009 uprising over a stolen election was the perfect opportunity.

But, there is a civilisational civil war pushed by neomarxist progressives and their allies, who hold disproportionate influence thanks to sanctuaries in the academy, the media and foundations plus government. These same are the core of the radical secularist ideological push that so likes to dress itself up in the holy lab coat.

On their world narrative, the USSR was the vanguard of progress, never mind a few cracked skulls along the way. And, the right wing is held to be nazism, which the US right wing is viewed as being . . . Bushitler and Christofascist are not mere schoolyard taunts they are emblems of a ruthless ideology pushing well poisoning, so the US is deemed the biggest global threat in many ways, a threat to be curbed and hobbled, hamstrung if possible.

In fact, as simple history will show, Nazism means, National Socialist German Workers Party, and Mussolini came out of Socialism. Fascism is essentially statist political messianism with amoral nihilistic Nietzschean impulses that sees the superman figure as saviour of victim mass groups. It is smart enough to cut deals with industrialists and other groups, and worm its way to power, unchecked power. Unchecked power is the means to utter dominance. Mix in marginalisation, demonisation, slander against centres of opposition, and an all too familiar threat emerges: fascism remixed is the real global threat and it mainly comes from those who look like rescuers who promise to use the state to defend mass victim groups. 

From 2008, the neomarxist progressives have had their dream opportunity, with an elected minority race Ivy League educated president of the US who is a disciple of Alinsky’s Chicago School of community organisers . . . notice, how that never seems to get clearly defined? No prizes for guessing why.

And so, the sort of geostrategic folly we are seeing is no accident or mere bumbling. 

It is the working out of an agenda of breathtaking scope.

Only, reality, in the shape of a chess-playing, bear-riding former KGB Colonel, has come a-knocking. With Iran’s nukes waiting in the wings.

We are back to 1938, as Palin warned 5 years ago, and we are again found wanting.

But this time, nukes are in play.

Nukes that are getting into ever more irresponsible hands.
Let's do the cartoon and photoshop thingy:

Bear-riding KGB Colonels . . .

Chess vs Checkers . . . 

For those unfamiliar with chess,the checker piece on a chessboard is under direct three-way threat from a Bishop, a Pawn and a Queen. A Knight also covers the one move forward step that is presumably accessible to a simple piece, and which the apparently pushing finger indicates is likely. Its only momentarily safe move would be a retreat on a diagonal . . . to the left, and there is not enough material on the Obama side to back any onward moves of consequence. If he tries to play by Chess rules and captures the Bishop the backing pawn will have him. If he moves to the right and takes the pawn, that would open up a threat to a Knight, but that is backed by a Pawn and given the material gap, I would tempt that, letting the Knight just sit there. By Checker Rules of course, the man is already blocked hopelessly. This is an end game with no hope of survival.

And, oh yes, if you want to get on with crying about blood for oil and similar talking points, maybe we should look at this World Observer Online infographic that explains much of what Putin is likely to be up to:

Then, understand that Ukraine is a gateway to much else and serves as a handy distractor from events in Iran as it sprints over the finish line to get its bombs in place. 

Iran of course sits on the Persian Gulf global oil jugular vein, is under the tyranny of Mullahs obsessed with visions of end times Islamic conquest of the world through Mahdi-led Black Flag armies, and is an ally of Russia. 

In geostrategic matters, only naive fools believe in mere coincidences.

Or, put another way, Sun Tzu strongly indicates that the ideal general conceals his intentions by confusing moves and deceptive smokescreens, until he is ready to strike as a thunderbolt from the blue.

I therefore continue to have a very queasy feeling in the pit of my stomach.

It is time to pray, and it is time to reflect on our own failure to think soberly about the realities of the world and potential consequences of our feckless, wishful thinking, media manipulated behaviour. END