Sunday, November 24, 2013

Matt 24 watch, 229g: March 2012 -- US Obama administration leak games to hamper or block Israeli options on Iran

Some time ago, as I thought about the Israeli strike options to hit and delay Iran's nuke programme sufficiently for sense to prevail:

. . . given the list of possible target-points:

. . . I could not but help observing how inviting the "back -door" across the Caspian Sea must be. Providing, Georgia and Azerbaijan (both of which have had fairly good relations with Israel) were willing to co-operate.  But of course Georgia was hit by Russia (an Iranian ally) in 2008, and I thought, that probably puts that off the list of serious possibilities.

So, imagine my astonishment to be informed of the following Obama Administration leak, circa March 29, 2012:
JERUSALEM - Two reports today about Iran's nuclear program and the possibility of an Israeli military strike have analysts in Israel accusing the Obama administration leaking information to pressure Israel not to bomb Iran and for Iran to reach a compromise in upcoming nuclear talks.

The first report in Foreign Policy quotes anonymous American officials saying that Israel has been given access to airbases by Iran's northern neighbor Azerbaijan from which Israel could launch air strikes or at least drones and search and rescue aircraft.

The second report from Bloomberg, based on a leaked congressional report, said that Iran's nuclear facilities are so dispersed that it is "unclear what the ultimate effect of a strike would be…" A strike could delay Iran as little as six months [--> a very familiar figure, as that is the period of the "interim" deal just struck], a former official told the researchers.

"It seems like a big campaign to prevent Israel from attacking," analyst Yoel Guzansky at the Institute for National Security Studies told ABC News. "I think the [Obama] administration is really worried Jerusalem will attack and attack soon. They're trying hard to prevent it in so many ways."
When we put this with the "deal" diplomatic game now in progress, and the earlier reports of secret negotiations to set it up, it looks like further support for the view that the current US administration has long since decided to accept a nuclear-armed Iran, regardless of implications for Israel, other Middle Eastern states and the wider world.

My overall personal assessment of Nov 13 -- willful betrayal of allies and retreat in the face of a growing global threat by an unstable, terrorism sponsoring state that has repeatedly threatened genocide (when sanctions were beginning to have a significant effect) -- remains unfortunately valid:
I hate to say this, and know some will be angered by such a chain of reasoning -- especially as updated, but logic in light of evident facts and consequences that MUST be recognised in strategic decision making centres in Washington DC, Jerusalem, Tehran, London, Paris, Moscow, Beijing and elsewhere now pushes me:
I: this is patently too co-ordinated, too neat and definitive in potential outcomes -- and too well timed to exploit a predictable distraction over a controversial US domestic policy issue that has been bubbling up since 2010 -- to be mere coincidence and feckless bumbling.
II: It looks deliberate.
III: There is no way the senior officials in Washington could be unaware of the chain of highly likely geostrategic consequences outlined above.
IV: Obviously, those consequences are acceptable to them and reflect a fundamental alienation from Israel and willingness to live with the sort of Middle East that is emerging.
Though many Americans would not agree with such a re-alignment, it is obvious that they have lacked the capability to block any number of radical and questionable "change[s]" emanating from this administration. 
Further conclusion:
V: The United States is being fundamentally realigned in the post-Christian, secularist, statist European mould, and:
  •  it seems the balance of forces is now on the side of that re-alignment,  
  • from seeking to corrupt marriage (the most fundamental civilisation-stabilising social institution)  under false colours of equality and rights, 
  • to massive statist takeovers of major sectors of the US economy 
  • to alienating hitherto pivotal allies across the world (especially in major trouble-spots)  and 
  • allowing or even actively enabling the rise of fundamentally hostile powers to a place where 
  • they will predictably seriously hamper or even block any future US geo-strategic actions designed to be protective of the free world and pivotal trade choke points, starting with no 1 and 2 -- the Persian Gulf and the Suez Canal. 
  • Thus ushering in a new post-Christian era with radical Islam as the pivotal power bloc [probably envisioned as a third world champion and balance/ check to US imperialism . . . about as likely as Germany under Hitler was as a check to French and British Imperialism . . . ]
That very unwelcome summary is a recipe for global chaos and war on a scale hitherto unimaginable.
Indeed, the pattern of untrustworthy behaviour now clearly goes back to at least early 2012, where the Obama Administration did not hold back from revealing serious options that Israel had in hand. In an attempt to frustrate or block them.

No wonder, in the March 29, 2012 report, we see this further remark:
In a column this afternoon titled "Obama Betraying Israel?" longtime defense commentator Ron Ben-Yishai at Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper angrily denounced the leaks as a "targeted assassination campaign."

"In recent weeks the administration shifted from persuasion efforts vis-à-vis decision-makers and Israel's public opinion to a practical, targeted assassination of potential Israeli operations in Iran," Ben-Yishai writes. "The campaign's aims are fully operational: To make it more difficult for Israeli decision-makers to order the IDF [Israeli Defense Forces] to carry out a strike, and what's even graver, to erode the IDF's capacity to launch such strike with minimal casualties."
This is further evidence of something gone very rotten indeed.

We have come to a grim, sobering pass. 

Right now, I feel like a passenger in a car that has skidded out of control and is veering into the path of heavy, fast-moving traffic on the other side of the road. END