Monday, September 26, 2011

Matt 24 Watch, 139: Iran may be six months away from a nuclear weapon

The IslamIST attitude and agenda, per Islamic Thinkers Society
2006 street protest, NY (under the doctrines of fair use and free comment)
Over the past week or so, I have been following up on the unilateral statehood bid by Mr Abbas et al, in the UN. 

Yesterday, I laid out my case -- updated overnight [note the onward links] -- on why I am very pessimistic about the implications of what is going on.

Then, this morning, my attention was drawn to an onward development as reported in The Australian, that underscores the urgency of our concerns:

Iran just months from N-bomb

IRAN may be just six months away from developing a nuclear bomb, despite international attempts to thwart the program through sanctions and cyber attacks.

Two years after an underground installation in the city of Qmo was revealed in a joint press conference by US President Barack Obama, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and former British prime minister Gordon Brown, Iran has significantly advanced its uranium enrichment program at the site . . . .

"We believe if Iran broke out now they could have a bomb in six months,"
said David Albright, a former weapons inspector who runs the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington. "They've done this right in front of our faces."

Iran has ignored four sets of UN Security Council resolutions since 2006 calling on it to cease enriching uranium. With the world's attention diverted by the Arab Spring, Tehran has pressed ahead, overcoming delays caused by Stuxnet, a mysterious computer worm that made centrifuges malfunction.

Greg Jones, a defence analyst at the Nonproliferation Policy Education Centre, calculates that Iran could now produce a bomb within 62 days
. . . [more]

 Of course, we can bet that -- predictably -- this will NOT be global headline news, followed up by serious, probing panel discussions, then meetings at the UN and calling for urgent international action.

So, when Mr Netanyahu, in his speech at the UN last Friday, asked pointedly about what would be done about a nuclear weapon in the hands of Mr Ahmadinejad, this must have been in the back of his mind.

To predict the likely onward Israeli action, given the patent futility of the diplomatic efforts to date, we simply need to know that Mr Netanyahu's brother, Yonnie, was a leader of the Entebbe raid to rescue Israeli passengers held hostage by Palestinian Arab terrorists with the complicity of Amin's Uganda. 

Jonathan Netanyahu was killed in action in the raid.

The time-bomb now ticking away may be a nuclear one. And while Iran under its current leadership is obviously fully capable of using such a nuke, it could easily hand such over to terrorists, or even just the radiological materials to make a dirty bomb, and back it up with the threat of nuclear destruction.
One thing is certain, such a development will be seen by Israel as an existential threat, and Israel already has in place the submarines, precision-targetted cruise missiles and air force to respond directly. 

Israel, for excellent reason, will act on what we may call the Netanyahu doctrine: 

"Better a bad press than a good eulogy." 

The war storm-clouds are gathering with frightening rapidity. END

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