1 Chron 12:32 Report, 18: Wehner's Analysis of the Global war initiated since 1979 by Militant Shia and Sunni Islamism

NB: Over the past several days, the events at the Montserrat volcano have dominated my focus, but I have continued to think about the 1 Chron 12:32 "understanding our times" series. Here, I therefore put up some further food for thought.
______________

For those wishing to do an in-depth analysis of the global spiritual-geostrategic situation posed by militant Islamism, Peter Wehner's sobering analysis at Real Clear Politics is hard to beat; whatever points of disagreement one may have with his argument.

Key excerpts, giving us a taste of the riches in store for the patient reader:

President Bush has said that the war against global jihadism is more than a military conflict; it is the decisive ideological struggle of the 21st century. We are still in the early years of the struggle. The civilized world will either rise to the challenge and prevail against this latest form of barbarism, or grief and death will visit us and other innocents on a massive scale.

Given the stakes involved in this war and how little is known, even now, about what is at the core of this conflict, it is worth reviewing in some detail the nature of our enemy - including disaggregating who they are (Shia and Sunni extremists), what they believe and why they believe it, and the implications of that for America and the West . . . . The enemy we face is not Islam per se; rather, we face a global network of extremists who are driven by a twisted vision of Islam [of course, they argue that they are the true folowers of Islam's founder, and not without some justification]. These jihadists are certainly a minority within Islam [generally estimated at ~ 10%, which yields in excess of 100 millions, more than the total of committed Nazis and Communists of C20 combined] -- but they exist, they are dangerous and resolute, in some places they are ascendant . . . .

"Across the Middle East Shias and Sunnis have often rallied around the same political causes and even fought together in the same trenches," Professor Vali Nasr, author of The Shia Revival, has written. But he also points out that "followers of each sect are divided by language, ethnicity, geography, and class. There are also disagreements within each group over politics, theology, and religious law..."[3] Professor Nasr points out that "[a]nti-Shiism is embedded in the ideology of Sunni militancy that has risen to prominence across the region in the last decade."[4] . . . .

Shiites believe that the Twelfth Imam, al-Mahdi, is merely hidden from view and will one day return from his "occultation" to rid the world of evil. Legitimate Islamic rule can only be re-established with the Mahdi's return because, in the Shiite view, the imams possessed secret knowledge, passed by each to his successor, vital to guiding the community . . . . Shia have historically been politically quiescent, with "[the return of the Mahdi] remaining in practice merely a sanctifying tenet for the submissive acceptance of the status quo."[11]

In more recent times, however -- and in particular in Iran under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini -- the martyrdom of Hussein at Karbala in 680 has been used to catalyze political action. Ayatollah Khomeini embraced a view that Hussein was compelled to resist an unpopular, unjust and impious government and that his martyrdom serves as a call to rebellion for all Muslims in building an Islamic state . . . .

Professor Noah Feldman of New York University points out, "Recently, Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, contributed to renewed focus on the mahdi, by saying publicly that the mission of the Islamic revolution in Iran is to pave the way for the mahdi's return..."[13]

Sunni radicals hold a very different eschatological view. "For all his talk of the war between civilizations," Professor Noah Feldman has written:

"bin Laden has never spoken of the end of days. For him, the battle between the Muslims and the infidels is part of earthly human life, and has indeed been with us since the days of the Prophet himself. The war intensifies and lessens with time, but it is not something that occurs out of time or with the expectation that time itself will stop. Bin Laden and his sympathizers want to re-establish the caliphate and rule the Muslim world, but unlike some earlier revivalist movements within Sunni Islam, they do not declare their leader as the mahdi, or guided one, whose appearance will usher in a golden age of justice and peace to be followed by the Day of Judgment. From this perspective, the utter destruction of civilization would be a mistake, not the fulfillment of a divine plan."[14]

Many Sunnis, then, look toward the rise of a new caliphate; Shia, on the other hand, are looking for the rule of the returned imam -- with the extremist strain within Shia believing they can hasten the return of the twelfth imam by cleansing the world of what they believe to be evil in their midst . . . .

In Islam's first few centuries of existence, it was a dominant and expanding force in the world [a history of unrepented-of imperialism we are prone to forget or may be simply ignorant of], sweeping across lands in the modern-day Middle East, North Africa, Spain, and elsewhere. During its Golden Age -- which spanned from the eighth to the 13th century -- Islam was the philosophical, educational, and scientific center of the world. [The Chinese may dispute that . . .] The Ottoman Empire[17] reached the peak of its power in the 16th century. Islam then began to recede as a political force. In the 17th century, for example, advancing Muslims were defeated at the gates of Vienna, the last time an Islamic army threatened the heart of Europe. And for radicals like bin Laden, a milestone event and historic humiliation came when the Ottoman Empire crumbled at the end of World War I.

This is significant because for many Muslims, the proper order of life in this world is for them to rule and for the "infidels" to be ruled over. The end of the Ottoman Empire was deeply disorienting. Then, in 1923-24 came the establishment of modern, secular Turkey under Kemal Ataturk -- and the abolishment of the caliphate.[18]

Osama bin Laden and his militant Sunni followers seek to reverse all that. Bin Laden sees himself as the new caliph; he has referred to himself as the "commander of the faithful." He is seeking to unify all of Islam -- and resume a jihad against the unbelievers.

According to Mary Habeck of the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University:

"Jihadis thus neither recognize national boundaries within the Islamic lands nor do they believe that the coming Islamic state, when it is created, should have permanent borders with the unbelievers. The recognition of such boundaries would end the expansion of Islam and stop offensive jihad, both of which are transgressions against the laws of God that command jihad to last until Judgment Day or until the entire earth is under the rule of Islamic law."[19]

Al Qaeda and its terrorist allies are waging their war on several continents. They have killed innocent people in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, the Far East, and the United States. They will try to overthrow governments and seize power where they can -- and where they cannot, they will attempt to inflict fear and destruction by disrupting settled ways of life. They will employ every weapon they can: assassinations, car bombs, airplanes, and, if they can secure them, biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons.

The theocratic and totalitarian ideology that characterizes al Qaeda makes typical negotiations impossible. "Anyone who stands in the way of our struggle is our enemy and target of the swords," said Abu Musab al Zarqawi, the late leader of al Qaeda in Iraq. Osama bin Laden put it this way: "Death is better than living on this Earth with the unbelievers among us."

In short, we see the outlines of an intransigent, religiously motivated, global conquest ideology, in part at least -- here I think we can challenge Wehner based on some of the recent notes made by Joel Richardson (which apply to Sunnis as well as Shias) -- further motivated by a global conquest eschatology as described.

We cannot deal with this effectively by imagining that we can bury our heads int he sand and hope the storm will pass, or by so focussing on our real and imagined flaws [as the comments on the crisis in Montserrat so sharply expose . . .) and the wider historic, as yet unfinished sins of the West, that we become paralysed in the face of a global, existential threat.

Later, let us explore the background a bit more, then look at some of the key flash-points, DV. END

Montserrat Update, 5: Jan 9, 2007

Overnight, it was indicated by the MVO that the runout of the flow yesterday morning was actually 5 km [~ 3 miles], and that it was generally consistent with the model projections from last September for a 5 mn cu m flow.

It is estimated that somewhat more than 5 mn cu m has fallen from the dome, leaving a chute just above Tyre's Ghaut, potentially facilitating further, larger flows into the Belham. It was also indicated by the MVO that what has fallen already represents only a relatively small fraction of the available mass in the dome.

What does this all mean?

A good way to answer that, as we continue to monitor the evolving state of the volcano, it would be instructive to review the Montserrat Volcano Observatory Scientific Advisory Committee's [SAC] views -- NB: then, not fully formalised -- when the volcano was last in a fairly similar condition to what now obtains.

For, instance, the September 2002 assessment, some eight months before the July 2003 collapse is quite illustrative.

Citing the Executive Summary:

With a very large dome and continuing dome growth, situations can arise rapidly where currently populated areas in and marginal to the lower Belham Valley will be at high risk. If the dome switches its direction of growth to the north or northwest then collapses are possible which could generate pyroclastic flows that would reach the lower Belham Valley . . . . For individuals, the risk of death by eruptive activity for persons living north of Lawyer’s Mountain remains classified as NEGLIGIBLE under the Chief Medical Officer’s Risk Scale, and residents of north Woodlands are also assessed to be at NEGLIGIBLE risk; further south, risks range from MODERATE for residents along the northern slopes and ridge of the Belham Valley, to LOW in the Olveston area, and VERY LOW on passing north of Salem.

With a northwest or north direction of dome growth, in which additional material accumulates such that moderate or large collapses could occur and be directed by topography into Tyre’s Ghaut, the risks would change for population areas bordering the Belham Valley. For this situation the exposure would be assessed as HIGH.

Moving north from the Belham Valley, there is a steep decline of risk to residents. If, at any time, it were required to reduce total overall societal exposure, this could be achieved by sequential evacuation of areas bordering the Exclusion Zone. Early warning and other mitigation steps would also reduce exposure. [Bold emphases added]

Thus, we can clearly see that there is a gradation of risk to the vicinity of Woodlands beach under conditions similar to what now obtains. That is related to the unfortunately credible risk -- given, e.g. the May 8, 1902 St Pierre disaster -- that surge clouds connected to pyroclastic flows can spread out well beyond the margins of the valleys down which the main flows tend to rush.

In September 2006, some remarks along these lines in the SAC Technical Report, were:

The dome is currently growing to the east/northeast, but the next time that the locus of lava dome growth shifts to the north or west there will be the potential to infill the moat between the dome and the crater walls and overtop the crater rims above Gage’s and/or Farrell’s Walls. If this happens, the possibility will exist to send dome collapse pyroclastic flows towards Plymouth or into the lower Belham Valley. Our new analysis of this (paragraphs 20-21) shows that the assessed probability by flows down Gage’s Ghaut has fallen relative to the last report. This analysis also shows that the top of the dome must be at least about 950 metres above sea level for such collapses to occur at all, and that most collapses with volumes greater than about 2 million cubic metres occur when the dome is above 1000 metres above sea level. As before, flows of volume greater than 2 million cubic metres could threaten Plymouth . . . .

As we have seen from the PYROFLOW probabilistic simulations of pyroclastic flows and their surges (Fig.4), the 5 million cubic metre simulated flows would reach no further down the Belham River Valley than Cork Hill. Because we have not had such long flows on land on Montserrat we cannot with high confidence accurately simulate equivalent flows that reach all the way down the Belham Valley to the sea. Nevertheless extrapolations of model parameters suggest that such a flow would need to have a volume of about 12 million cubic metres or more. The boundaries of such flows and their surges in the lower Belham Valley simulated by PYROFLOW are shown in Fig.6. [pp. 13 - 15, emphases added.]

The caption to Fig 6, p. 14, reads:

Fig.6. Simulated limits of dome collapse pyroclastic flows and their surges in the lower Belham Valley. The red boundary is for flows of up to 5 million cubic metres such as has been experienced as a result of collapses over the Farrell’s Wall earlier in the eruption. The blue line represents the boundary of a ~ 12 million cubic metre flow. The purple line along Nantes River marks the northern limit of any conceivable pyroclastic flow/surge activity. Note that the pyroclastic surge limits are derived by a very simple method and thus the red and blue boundaries are not necessarily conservative with respect to surge hazard.

In short, the models in use are to be viewed with caution, and the SAC's credible limit for dome collapse or avalanche-induced pyroclastic flow surges is the line of the Nantes River, as noted previously.

That, in turn, suggests to this observer, that the limit for surges due to collapse of high eruption columns is considerably further out from the Belham. (This would account for the estimates that view Lawyers as the line of ultimate safety as noted in 2002. Such a column blast is conceivable as the result of a major dome collapse event. Hopefully, such an event would give sufficient warning - credibly, at least some dozens of minutes -- through the generation of the required high, sustained eruption column that people could flee north of that line.)

But, the above is sufficient for us to draw out some issues and concerns on the announced evacuation of yesterday, which is up to the rim of the Belham valley. That is, it assumes that the potential pyroclastic flows are in effect constrained by the topography of the Belham valley. But, there is plainly a credible enough potential for a wider-spreading surge cloud that it is commented upon in the September 2006 SAC Technical report, complete with a "purple line."

This confirms the validity of the previously posted three-scenario decision-support model for hazards [tied to three decision alternatives -- 1: do nothing assuming a switch is imminent; 2: evacuate up tot he northern rim of the Belham; 3: evacuate up to the line of the Nantes]. Such a model can also be inferred from remarks by SAC members released to the press locally last week:

A: OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO [Wadge], let's say 70% chance: Since a shift in the locus of dome growth to the NW usually lasts up to ~ 4 weeks, maybe the locus of growth will shift away to a more "safe" quadrant soon, so if nothing is done nothing would result. [But if B or C happen, dozens to hundreds of casualties could result.]

Expectation of losses [for option 1]: 0.7 * 0 + 0.27 * 20 + 0.03 * 200 = 11.4

B: INTERMEDIATE [Wadge], let's say 27% chance, i.e. 9/10 of the remaining 30%: A large collapse leading to pyroclastic flows down the Belham but which are more or less confined to the margins of that river. If the margins are evacuated, then no casualties would occur under A or B. But if C happens, up to hundreds could happen.

Expectation of losses [for option 2]: 0.7 * 0 + 0.27 * 0 + .03 * 200 = 6

C: PESSIMISTIC [Aspinall], let's say 3% chance: A very large collapse with unconfined surge clouds similar to May 8, 1902. If an evacuation up tot he Nantes line is done, no casualties would occur. But, if no evacuation or a marginal evacuation is done, up to hundreds of casualties could easily result.

Expectation of losses [for option 3]: 0.7 * 0 + 0.27 * 0 + .03 * 0 = 0

Now, of course, the probabilites and casualty estimates are illustrative only, but the general orders of magnitudes given are enough to make the point.

THAT POINT IS THAT THE LEVEL OF EVACUATION CURRENTLY UNDERTAKEN -- OPTION 2 -- IS NOT THE MOST ROBUST DECISION. (That is, on the evidence in hand, Salem -- up to the line of the Nantes, is still exposed to the possibility of a wide-spreading, sudden pyroclastic flow surge; which is not covered by evacuation option 2, the one taken as at yesterday afternoon, 6 pm, when the Governor's proclamation went into effect.)

For, plainly, Salem and environs, on the best available scientific, historical and common-sense information, are at risk of a sudden, large dome-collapse-triggered pyroclastic flow. So, it would be wise for the people of Salem and environs to move north of the Nantes now, if possible, and/or at minimum, to be prepared to do so on a moment's notice. (NB: Whatever the pressures on the authorities, by virtue of our need and right to know as a directly concerned public, it is plainly incumbent upon them to immediately explain why evacuation to the line of the Nantes has not currently been ordered, given the above.)

Finally, it should be noted that fears that if Salem is evacuated, Montserrat is "finished" are probably groundless.

For, prior to about 1998, the level of infrastructure further North may have lent credibility to such a view. But, in the near-decade since then, considerable infrastructure has been emplaced in the North. Also, as was discussed in this blog Saturday, using modular construction technologies similar to what Mr Ryan has used in his new mini-plaza in Brades, we can rapidly put in warehousing, small-business plazas, evacuation cottages and land for farmers. Indeed, if necessary, similar modular construction could be used to build campuses for the education institutions in Salem, which are on the fringes of the Nantes river line.

The bottomline is plain: with prudence, a sustainable Montserrat can be build starting from where we are now. So, let us join together with one heart and mind to do just that! END

Montserrat Update Jan 8 07, No 4: Flows reach Weekes-Cork Hill region

Live update, from Dr Hards of MVO, 7:25 AM:

The Pyroclastic flows have reportedly reached Weekes-Cork Hill. END

BREAKING: Montserrat Update, 3: 6:50 AM Jan 8, 07

BREAKING: I update by posting the substance of a response to the same person; which was originally intended to communicate a map -- but the alarms sounded then the Governor went on the air, then I waited to record the MVO chief's comments live.

Pardon the jerky style:

_____________

X,

As I type this the Governor, HE Debra Barnes- Jones, is on air by phone at ZJB, at 6:40 AM, the alarms having finally sounded 5 minutes ago, 6:35 AM.

____________

Breaking:

She went off air, and after several minutes Dr Hards is finally on air,

--> Explosion noise heard, 6:15, explosion, 30 k ft ash cloud

--> Pyroclastic [Flow, PF] activity, still in area evacuated over the past few days, furetner information to follow.

--> Where did surges go: Gages Valley, some in Tyres Ghaut, not very clear at moment.

--> Not seeing anything in Belham; note on PF activity. So far within guidelines (on the map, one assumes,[ linked].)

--> Morning show host, Basil Chambers, says sirens on saying "evacuate, evacuate" in Salem, Dr Hards indicates this relates to already designated areas.

--> Latest update: explosive event with gas and ash, PFs in Gages and Tyres not necessary over, stay put, don't panic.

____________ ________

Back to earlier:

She [Governor] indicates that Dr Hards, MVO head, is trying to get through to the radio station, and notes that a dome collapse is in progress.

Let us pray that it is a small one, and that nothing serious has happened.

Okay

Gordon
_____________

The map is available from me, on request.

Further updates will be posted as necessary. END

MONTSERRAT UPDATE, 2: Jan 8 07, 6:15 AM -- Further Update and response on the Montserrat Volcano situation

Overnight, I had a request in an E-Group for clarification. (NB: In response to an earlier request, I sent out a basic map of Montserrat with a few annotations to the E-Group. Available on request. You can find maps of Montserrat here and here [this being an online version of the 1: 25,000 Tourist Map] MVO has much more details and the latest hazardous/safe zone maps.)

As I am about to post this, the alarms are now sounding, 6:35 AM. Let's update when we hear more of what is happening, if necessary.

I responded to the request as below.

Notice, that as I was spell checking, a dome collapse was evidently in progress. No alarms have sounded up to the time of this posting.

I have of course removed identification of the person requesting clarification:

_____________

REQUEST:

Thanks for the explanation and the map which I found very useful.

If I understand, you do not even go to Plymouth the capital? Has that fared badly?

It would be a useful addition to your map to indicate the areas that are now out of bounds and volcano threatened.

Blessings

X

______________________

RESPONSE, 6:15 AM:

X,

I forgot!

For the longest time, nearly everywhere South of the Belham has been off-limits [apart from tours and "holdouts" living in a hill next to the Belham]. There is also an offshore exclusion zone in the South and on the East side of the Island near the open mouth of the Crater. On land, that exclusion zone runs right up to more or less, Jack Boy Hill, the lookout point used to see the mountain.

Plymouth has been buried under debris flows since August – December 1997. It is abandoned and a tourist site.

Note, as I spell-checked this and posted, Del called me to our Kitchen window. From it and from the backyard we can see that a large reddish ash column is in our Southern Sky, 6:15 AM, maybe 15,000 – 20,000 ft, with what seems to be roaring and volcanic lightning. This seems to be a partial collapse of the dome. Please stay tuned to the news.

Currently, the upgrading to threat level 4 out of 5 meant that the tours into Plymouth are forbidden. [When I said I do not go S of St Peter's unless I have a good reason, I mean I will hesitate to go S of Lawyer's Ghaut, and most certainly will not go S of the the Nantes River [Next to Ram's Supermarket], apart from excellent reason. The line of relative safety in the hazard assessment scenarios, according to Dr Willy Aspinall (in answering public questions put to the SAC panel for the Observatory in March 2006), oscillates between those lines.]

The further warnings discussed in my earlier blog post mean that the residents in Isles Bay Hill etc are supposed to evacuate, as well as those on the rim of the Belham valley to the North, i.e. the fringes of Salem. [The big problem with that is, that in the hopefully unlikely event of a big enough sudden collapse of the rapidly growing dome leading to a spreading hot ash cloud (a la St Pierre 1902), up to hundreds of casualties could result in as little as three minutes, in the region of Salem. But, even after eleven years, no serious provision has been made to accommodate the implied up to ~ 800 evacuees from Salem.] . . . .

Looking at options and illustrative odds:

A: OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO, let's say 70% chance: Since a shift in the locus of dome growth to the NW usually lasts up to ~ 4 weeks, maybe the locus of growth will shift away to a more "safe" quadrant soon, so if nothing is done nothing would result. [But if B or C happen, dozens to hundreds of casualties could result.]

Expectation of losses: 0.7 * 0 + 0.27 * 20 + 0.03 * 200 = 11.4

B: INTERMEDIATE, let's say 27% chance, i.e. 9/10 of the remaining 30%: A large collapse leading to pyroclastic flows down the Belham but which are more or less confined to the margins of that river. If the margins are evacuated, then no casualties would occur under A or B. But if C happens, up to hundreds could happen.

Expectation of losses: 0.7 * 0 + 0.27 * 0 = .03 * 200 = 6

C: PESSIMISTIC, let's say 3% chance: A very large collapse with unconfined surge clouds similar to May 8, 1902. If an evacuation up tot he Nantes line is done, no casualties would occur. But, if no evacuation or a marginal evacuation is done, up to hundreds of casualties could easily result.

Expectation of losses: 0.7 * 0 + 0.27 * 0 + .03 * 0 = 0

Of course, the probabilities assigned and loss-levels used are crude guesstimates; for illustrative purposes only!

But, they are plainly illustrative of where A ROBUST RESPONSE lies.

The basic challenge is, that there is a perception that if one acts on a large evacuation and no major flow occurs, then there has been an "unnecessary" evacuation and socio-economic dislocation -- all with damaging effects on business values and economics.

[This is similar to the issue of what happened in Guadeloupe in 1976, where the eruption did not go beyond an initial level passed here in 1995 - 6, but where an evacuation of the western lobe of that butterfly shaped island for a year cost something like US$ 400 millions. There was a nasty public scientific quarrel over scenarios and hazards, and it was decided after a special international conference to return people to Basse Terre, and since then for 30 years, no devastating eruption has happened. IMHCO, the lack of understanding that a probability other than 1 or 0 is an index of ignorance and the need for prudence, leads to this perception. My proposal that we model based on laying out scenarios and identify a robust policy as above, is designed to reduce the risk of a scientific quarrel, and to educate the public on the range of issues and possibilities that go into the policy.]

So, we need wisdom just now -- do pray for that.

All the best

Gordon

Montserrat Volcano situation Update Jan 6, 2007

In the Caribbean, when public policy goes wrong, it is as a rule the poor, typically black descendants of slaves who pay the price: in further impoverishment, in loss of livelihood, in dislocation and distress, and -- far too often: in blood.

So, given our region's sad and unfinished, painful history: slavery, colonialism, genocide of native peoples and general oppression, incompetence and injustice, our decision-making and decision-influencing classes have special burdens and face special challenges. That holds for the rising class of educated Caribbean leaders; it holds for the international, expatriate experts and advisers who do so many technical consultancies here; and it -- especially -- holds for the remaining colonial powers in those territories that (for one reason or another) have not obtained independence.

So, with three-fold force, it holds for Montserrat in the face of a lingering volcano crisis that has now played out over eleven years.

In that light, it pains me to have to summarise and comment below on the latest events over the past few days and weeks, as the growth rates in the dome again surged and led to a much escalated threat to our largest current township, Salem and its environs. But, integrity demands that we must face unwelcome but credible facts, seek the truth, and set out to act with that prudence that stems from wisdom:

1] By early 2005, the public discussion on the state of the eruption since 1995, was (in light of reported quiescence since the July 2003 major dome collapse) to set the criteria for declaring the eruption officially over. Public policy was shifting gears from emergency management and recovery to rebuilding and redevelopment. An award-winning video, Volcano Generation, was produced by a journalist at the local access cable TV channel, on how a new generation was going to "take back" the island from the volcano.

2] However, in a press conference held in the July 2005 10th anniversary volcanology conference, Professor Glen Mateoli [sp?] of the USA dropped a bombshell: his monitoring of the swelling of the mountain edifice over the period since the 2003 collapse indicated that the eruption was anything but over or fading away. Indeed, he predicted that within a short time, the mountain would return to active eruptive behaviour. Although this was initially received with public skepticism and even dismissals by other volcanologists at the conference and by public officials and public relations officers, within weeks, he was justified by events.

3] After this, the hosts of the Let's Talk local talk show [disclosure: myself included] highlighted Dr Mateoli's remarks, brought to the public attention the Okada tetrahedral model for transparent management of potential volcano crises presented at the 10th anniversary conference, and called for managing the crisis robustly in light of a full fan of credible scenarios, from optimistic to "most likely" to pessimistic. We pointed to the longstanding pattern of an optimistic bias in public pronouncements and management, and its consequences. For this, we were publicly rebuked by the Government media figure who hosts the weekly volcano interview with the Observatory staff, for "misconstruing" the situation. A journalistic, openly and acknowledgedly on the record interview with Professor Okada which was played, unedited, on the Let's Talk programme as the hook for our discussion, was also publicly misrepresented by the then head of the MVO as a violation of the privacy of a conversation with a scientist.

4] This unfortunate -- and never apologised for or retracted -- incident highlights the precise point made by Prof Okada: scientists, officials and the independent media should jointly collaborate to provide a three-legged, transparent platform supporting the public's need and right to know about the risks and hazards they face in living with a potentially active volcano.

5] Also, when I subsequently discovered a copy of the 1987 Wadge-Isaacs report, to my amazement, I discovered that in points 9 - 10 of its two-page executive summary -- right in the front of the document, it highlighted the need for transparently reckoning with just the sort of fan of scenarios we had discussed on Let's Talk:

. . . 9. [Scenario-based approach:] We suggest that emergency planning should allow for three very different types of eruption:

1. [Relatively Optimistic case:] A small eruption within English’s Crater. The only community that would be directly threatened by pyroclastic flows would be Long Ground which should be evacuated as soon as the eruption starts. There would also be a hazard from mudflows, specifically in Fort Ghaut in Plymouth.

2. [Intermediate case:] A moderate to large eruption. Most of southern Montserrat should be evacuated. The only two communities that would be relatively safe are Richmond and Cork Hill. The sequential hazard zone map gives a guide to the priority of evacuation in the event of such an eruption.

3. [Pessimistic case -- more or less what has now happened several times] A collapsing dome/lateral blast eruption. This is a very remote but dangerous possibility. The conditions leading up to it may be detectable in advance and once diagnosed immediate evacuation of the relevant 180 degree sector of the volcano would be required.

10. [Recommended robust policy response:] We suggest that some consideration be given to strategies for mitigating the damage done to the island by the loss during the eruption of the centralized facilities at Plymouth. Land use planning should take specific account of the mudflow hazards in the ghauts and valleys and the high risk area east of English’s Crater. [Bracketed, explanatory comments added]

6] From early August 2005 a new dome emerged, at first growing slowly, but then accelerating sharply in February 2006. On May 20, without warning (and the sirens did not sound, similar to the failure in the fatal Central Corridor in 1997!) the dome, then about a hundred million cubic metres [100 mn cu m] collapsed, mostly falling to the east. However, some very heavy ash falls occurred to the west. A hot ash surge cloud rushed out to sea on the eastern [open -- no crater wall] side of the volcano, and inexplicably bounced back inland, panicking those who had gone to the Jack Boy Hill lookout site to watch the events. A surprise bubble of irritant gases also flowed to the west, discomfiting , many residents of Salem, which is on the flanks of the Belham Valley [a major radial valley that runs to the West from the volcano edifice]. (Across the cycle of the eruption, scientists, officials and the public alike have repeatedly been caught by surprise by events.)

7] Within days, a new dome was rapidly growing, and in December 2006, it was about 150 mn cu m. For much of this period, the growth rate of this dome was said to be about 9 cu m/s, or about 3/4 mn cu m/day. So as Christmas approached, we faced a large dome, growing at an unprecedentedly rapid average rate for the overall eruption. The "good news" was that, even though growth shifted to the NW side of the dome closest to the Belham valley, Salem and environs, there was still a gap between the dome and the crater wall; which provided a barrier to collapses and hot ash and debris flows.

8] These flows are called pyroclastic flows, aka nues ardentes. On May 8, 1902, such a flow down a river valley in Martinique led to a spreading hot ash cloud that wiped out St Pierre, perhaps 2 miles to the South of the valley; killing 28,000 people in maybe three minutes. It is worth pausing to cite a brief summary of how that happened:

St. Pierre was destroyed by nues ardentes (glowing avalanches) which detached from the growing lava dome and crashed under gravity down the flanks of the volcano. For the most part, these avalanches were topographically controlled by preexisting valleys, such as that of the Rivière Blanche . . . but some were big enough to engulf St. Pierre on their margins.

9] Indeed, it is worth noting here, that in the original, exemplary 1986-7 Wadge-Isaacs study and report cited above on the risks posed by the Soufriere Hills Volcano in Montserrat, a thought-provoking figure superimposes a map of the deadly Martinique flows on May 8, 1902 on the map of the Belham valley, obviously engulfing Salem and Environs. So, while indeed, computer modelling of topographically-controlled pyroclastic flows and surge clouds [e.g. the PYROFLOW model currently in use at the MVO] are an important tool to guide hazard and risk assessment, we should recognise that -- as was acknowledged in the public presentation of the results, such models are subject to error, surprises on the ground and uncertainties so should be used with caution. (For, citing and expanding my public warning of Oct 30, 1995: Volcanology at its root is an observational science, as the very name of the Montserrat Volcano Observatory should remind us.)

10] Then, early in the new year, rumours began to circulate that the Vue Pointe Hotel at the mouth of the Belham was being evacuated. Shortly thereafter, the sirens sounded and those who could tuned to the local radio station, ZJB. We heard plainly worried officials informing us that the dome had surged in its growth, and was now estimated as "over 200 mn cu m." [NB: 50 mn cu m growth in 3 weeks or so corresponds to an average growth rate of 25+ cu m/s; or, ~ 2.4+ mn cu m/day.]

11] Worse, the crater rim on that side had now been overtopped by the surging dome, and pyroclastic flows were running down the Gages Valley and also Tyre's Ghaut. Already, runouts had reached a kilometre, about 3/5 of a mile. Thus, both Plymouth and the flanks of the Belham were at risk. The daytime entry zone was immediately cancelled, and an evacuation of the residents on "the flanks" of the Belham was announced. However, within hours this last was being dialled back to getting prepared to evacuate, and the next afternoon we were told by the [UK-appointed] Governor that a proclamation was being prepared for issue "within 48 hours."

12] By Friday evening, we learned from the Volcano Observatory during its weekly briefing, that runouts on the Gages front had reached 4 km [~ 2 1/2 miles], and on the Tyre's Ghaut front, 1.5 km [~ 0.9 miles]. Consultations with Dr Willy Aspinall, a leading expert on hazards of volcanoes and who had been present for the June 25, 1997 event that killed perhaps 19 people, led to a warning that the fact that current flows were small should not lull us into ruling out the same sort of sudden large scale, lethal flow that had happened that fatal day on his watch. Nevertheless, we were informed by officials, that only fifty households on the flanks of the Belham were to be evacuated at present, and that a high-powered official delegation [including the Governor] was visiting the houses one by one to explain the situation.

13] By this time, the Vue Pointe Hotel at the mouth of the Belham [and about a mile downstream from the communities on the flanks of the valley] had been evacuated two full days previously. This gap raises some obvious questions:

[1] If the risk to Vue Pointe was enough to trigger an immediate evacuation (on common reports, even before alerting the general public), given the known and publicly admitted uncertainties in volcano hazard modelling why was it not serious enough to call for a similar implemented evacuation of the communities located on the banks of the Belham?

[2] If on the other hand -- notwithstanding the known facts that (a) pyroclastic flows can spread out on the sides of constraining valleys, that (b) large ones can happen with little warning, and that (c) these flows easily run up to 60+ miles per hour so cannot be outrun on foot or in a car -- the degree of assessed risk for residents on the flanks of the Belham was low enough for them to remain in their homes pending an official order that takes several days to prepare, why was the Hotel -- a mile or so further away from the source of danger -- immediately evacuated?

[3] Or, more directly: why is it that ALL of "the 180 degree sector" facing the W side of the dome, up to at least the line of the Nantes River identified as potentially at serious risk was not "immediate[ly]" evacuated, as per the 1987 recommendations?

[4] Given the sad history of what has already happened with this crisis in June to August1997, and the underlying socio-cultural and historical issues raised at the head of this post, how can this apparent contradiction be credibly explained?

But, the real challenge is not fault finding but to identify a way forward that gives us some hope for a sustainable and desirable future.

a] Salem: I suggest, with all due respect, that we face the obvious: Salem and environs are at serious risk, and in a context that the mountain remains persistently eruptive, should be excluded from future development plans until the situation clarifies itself. We should not put in any further new infrastructure and public institutions into that township, and should move major institutions such as the High School, Community College and UWI Extramural Centre. [Given the public statement by Dr Aspinall et al in a SAC presentation in March 2006, on being asked to define the "safe" North, long term investments should only be put in North of the Lawyers Ghaut, just north of the Woodlands beach.]

b] Evacuations: These tend to cause impoverishment as people have to abandon residential property and business places, with their contents. The inhumane shelter conditions of 1995 - 7 led people to drift back into plainly unsafe areas to farm and to get a chance to rest in comfort, desensitising them to the hazards, which contributed to deaths. Thereafter, it contributed to depopulation. Consequently, it is suggested that:

[i] We should immediately purchase some of the unused shipping containers in the Port, and use them to create a warehousing facility for residents and small businesses in the Salem area, so that people may store their movable property. [As soon as possible after that, prefabricated warehousing -- perhaps ex UK military? -- should be brought in to upgrade the facilities.]

[ii] Following the example by Mr John Ryan who recently built a U-shaped walk-in plaza with eleven [11] business units on a half-acre site in Brades, we should use modular construction technologies to rapidly create small business plazas that can house the small businesses of Salem and Environs. A similar plaza could accommodate one or more evacuated schools.

[iii] A similar approach could create small cottage estates, which could serve as housing with dignity for evacuees. (If one were built right away, it could house a significant fraction of the currently expected evacuees, and would show a commitment that would discourage evacuees from simply abandoning the island. A further major flight from the island would have devastating social and economic impacts, as would a forced exodus of the many Caricom Nationals who have joined our workforce in recent years.]

[iv] There is enough land available in the North that targetted farming areas could be developed for the evacuated farmers of Salem. This would avert one of the acknowledged contributory factors to the deaths in 1997.

c] Public Policy and Public Relations: We should immediately and decisively move to a franker, more transparent, more accountable approach to managing volcanic hazards. The use of robust, scenario-based planning, and the Okada model for transparency with the public should be major planks of this change of approach.

Of course, many other ideas can be put into the mix. The above are just a few starters for a frank, serious discussion on how we as a community can work together to build a sustainable future as we continue to live with an active, andesitic (thus, explosive) island-arc volcano.

So, let us now face the truth together, so that we can build soundly and sustainably on it. END

1 Chron 12:32 Report, 17: Moving the Eschatology ball forward -- Mahdism and the Great Western Apostasy

Last time, we began to address Islam by looking at an official Iranian web page on Mahdism which revealed an Islamist global subjugation agenda of shocking proportions. (Of course, this was smoothly presented through turnabout rhetoric as a liberation struggle against Western Oppression in the name of "justice." The bald record of Iran's sad history since 1979 gives the lie to such pretensions.)

Overnight, as I followed up on the themes, I was led to Joel Richardson's online book hosted by the very useful Answering-Islam.org, namely Will Islam be our Future?

The book, first of all, takes an irenic, concerned stance that reflects an intercessor's heart and one who genuinely loves and has much experience in reaching out to Muslim people, despite serious death threats. He takes much time to warn against hate and violence, but notes that a serious comparison of the above topics will have painful implications, which many will indubitably find offensive and infuriating. But, the first principle is that we have to honestly face issues together, if we are to make progress.

I, too, request that what follows be taken in that spirit -- and invite correction if you can show me to be objectively wrong in the analysis below. [Note also my own engagement of JR on points where I think he has evident gaps in his thinking.]

Overall, I find that the work is a pioneering, breakthrough, frank, serious, honest and compassionate comparative analysis of Islamic and Biblical eschatologies that -- despite factual and analytical gaps and possibly debatable inferences over particular points -- IMHCO significantly moves the ball forward on eschatological thought. Indeed, in my further opinion, unless one reckons with the information, facts, perspectives and issues raised in this book, one is no longer current on Eschatology.

It is that important a breakthrough.

For instance, one of the first things that leaped out at me is a point raised in the fourth chapter: a reason why -- as we saw last time -- Iran semingly sees itself as the vanguard for the Mahdi's emergence:

The Mahdi’s ascendancy to power is said to be preceded by an army from the east who will be carrying black flags or banners of war. Sheikh Kabbani states:

Hadith indicate that black flags coming from the area of Khorasan will signify the appearance of the Mahdi is nigh. Khorasan is in todays Iran, and some scholars have said that this hadith means when the black flags appear from Central Asia, i.e. in the direction of Khorasan, then the appearance of the Mahdi is imminent. ¹⁷

In Islam there are two flags. One is white and one is black. Written across both flags in Arabic are the words, “There is no God but Allah and Muhammad is his Messenger”. The white flag is called Al-Liwaa and serves as the sign for the leader of the Muslim army and is the flag of the Islamic State. The black flag is called Ar-Raya and is used by the Muslim army. It is also called the flag of jihad, and is carried into battle. One flag is governmental and the other is a military flag. ¹⁹

The book carries out a detailed investigation of Hadiths, Quran teachings and major Islamic commenters on Islamic Eschatology. It then, step by step, with frankness and compassion, compares biblical eschatological teachings [having first duly noted on the debates on that vexed topic]. In Chapter 18, it then summarises its well-researched findings, devastatingly.

Excerpting a few key findings -- apologies in advance if you find these painful or offensive, and please view this as an invitation to serious, honest dialogue [note also that there are specific points where I differ from JR, cf. my onward discussion]:

AntiChrist vs Mahdi: Bible: The Antichrist is an unparalleled political, military and religious leader that will that emerge in the last-days. Islam: The Mahdi is an unparalleled political, military and religious leader that will emerge in the last-days Bible: When Antichrist emerges, there will already be some form of system in place that will be poised to receive him as a Savior and to give allegiance to him. Islam: All Muslims are commanded to give their allegiance to The Mahdi as the final Caliph and Imam (leader) of Islam. [JR NB: Islam is already the second largest religion and will at present growth rates become the largest religion within a few decades. Islam is awaiting the coming of the Mahdi with a universal anticipation.]

False Prophet vs Islamic Eschatological Jesus: Bible: the False Prophet is a secondary prominent figure that will emerge in the last-days who will support the Antichrist. Islam: the Muslim Jesus is a secondary prominent figure that will emerge in the last-days to support the Mahdi.

End-times wars: Bible: The Antichrist and the False Prophet together will have a powerful army that will do great damage to the earth in an effort to subdue every nation and dominate the World. Islam: The Mahdi and the Muslim Jesus will have a powerful army that will attempt to control every nation of the earth and dominate the World.

New World Order: Bible: The Antichrist and the False Prophet establish a New World Order. Islam: The Mahdi and the Muslim Jesus establish a New World Order. Bible: The Antichrist and the False Prophet institute new laws for the whole earth. Islam: The Mahdi and the Muslim Jesus institute Islamic law all over the earth.

New, Global Religious System: Bible: The Antichrist and the False Prophet will both be powerful religious leaders who will attempt to institute a universal world religion. Islam: The Mahdi and the Muslim Jesus will institute Islam as the only religion in the earth. Bible: The Antichrist and the False Prophet will execute [by beheading] anyone who does not submit to their world religion. Islam: . . . the Mahdi and the Muslim Jesus will execute [by beheading] anyone who does not submit to Islam.

Israel: Bible: The Antichrist is said to make a peace treaty with Israel for seven years. Islam: The Mahdi is said to make a peace treaty through a Jew (specifically a Levite) for exactly seven years. Bible: Jesus the Jewish Messiah will return to defend the Jews in Israel from a military attack from a vast coalition of nations led by the Antichrist and the False Prophet. Islam: The Dajjal, the Islamic Antichrist will gain a great Jewish following and claim to be Jesus Christ and fight against the Mahdi and the Muslim Jesus.

Jerusalem: Bible: The Antichrist will set himself up in the Jewish temple as his seat of authority. Islam: The Mahdi will establish the Islamic Caliphate from Jerusalem.

Theology: Bible: The antichrist spirit specifically denies the most unique and central doctrines of Christianity, namely the trinity, the incarnation and the substitutionary death of Jesus on the cross. Islam: Islam doctrinally and spiritually specifically denies the most unique and central doctrines of Christianity, namely the trinity, the incarnation and the substitutionary death of Jesus on the cross.

Now, there are two immediate, glaring gaps in the analysis:

[1] Islam is specifically, most emphatically monotheistic and against the worship of idols -- a major feature of the Antichrist system of Revelations 13.

[2] The fourth kingdom in Daniel 2 is obviously an extension/version of -- not just a replacement for -- the Roman Empire. (This cap of course fits the Western World very well, and its leader America; often called by Iran -- and not without some measure of warrant -- The Great Satan.)

On the first, JR suggests a key point: if a figure emerges who in the first instance fulfills the characteristics of the Mahdi, and leads the major Muslim countries and their allies on to a [partial?] defeat of Israel, that would indubitably draw to him a great many Muslims.

If such a figure also gains unprecedented power as a world leader, he would then become nigh impossible to resist. What would then happen --as La Haye and Jenkins suggest -- if such a figure is suddenly assassinated, and "rises from the dead"? [This can be easily faked in this age of spin . . .] Then, if his miracle-working assistant thereupon sets up a statue and demands worship on pain of death, who would be in a position to resist, save by embracing martyrdom?

A great many Muslims, would indeed immediately recognise this figure as an imposter and - to their credit -- would rise up against him even in the face of hopeless odds; but it would be far, far too late at that point. So, the root issue is whether th Islamic world as a whole is equipped to recognise and resist such a clever imposter /false Mahdi before it is too late. (Sadly, the current proneness to extremism does not give us much hope to us as outside observers. I would welcome correction here!)

(I suggest that at this point of unmasking as well, many Muslims would have their eyes opened to the Gospel and the true Christ, as would many of Israel, the latter in light of Zech 12 - 13.)

The second issue is more difficult.

JR baldly -- and correctly -- points out that the Eastern Roman Empire was succeeded by the Ottoman one when it fell finally in 1453. But, that successor empire is not of particularly Western/Roman character, which is what Dan 2 etc invites us to understand.

I do note, however, that as we see the European Union moving ever more to the South and East with Turkey [a major player in the scenarios JR discusses] knocking on the door for entry, that is suggestive. Similarly, as the demographics of Europe shift ever more and more in the face of a rising tide of Islam, we see through the mists the looming shape of Bat Ye'or's Eurabia.

So, the blend of European Apostasy and cultural loss of will, with an associated massive demographic collapse, and the rise of a resurgent Islam could make, say,

a suave, western-educated, cultured politically messianistic, postmodern charismatic figure ethnically from Turkey who appeals to European social idealism and United Nations-style globalist internationalism (while he also looks to many Muslim eyes like a Mahdi)

. . . into an all- too- potent possibility.

Now, is all of this mere indulgence in speculation that can provoke hostility and violence, or is it a plot outline for a novel to follow up on the Left Behind series?

No.

It is a warning:

[a] to an increasingly apostate Western Culture ripe for even more deeper deception than at present, and

[b] to an Islamic culture that needs to ask itself some hard questions about its Eschatological assumptions and agendas.

For, the time when we could assume that the line between Good an evil passes between "us" and "them," instead of -- as Solzhenitsyn warned -- through the individual "desperately wicked" human heart has long since passed.

Let us therefore now enter into honest, frank spiritual, cultural and political dialogue, to see how we can avoid the catastrophe of a charismatic global dictatorship that seemingly starts out as paradise on earth, but then turns into an Apocalyptic nightmare.

May God grant us wisdom, in his mercy. END

1 Chron 12:32 Report, 16: Abusing Advent III: Iranian Mahdism's Christmas Day 2006 message to the Christian, Anglophone West

It seems that Advent, sadly, is fast becoming the preferred time to make counter- [or even in some cases, anti-] Christian pronouncements!

Today's example -- excerpted from an Iranian official web page, "The World Toward Illumination" -- allows us to bridge to examining a key example of the Islamist global vision, rhetoric and agenda.

The opening words of the page are a classic of turnabout rhetoric -- accusing your opponents of pursuing your own agenda while presenting yourself as the antidote:

Man's effort to procure the facilities needed in his life, is as old as history. In today's world, science and technology have helped human societies to achieve many of the amenities. But mankind has not yet been able to eliminate poverty and remove the unequal distribution of income in the society, because of the unjust world order imposed by the so-called big powers, which by monopolizing science and technology terrorize weaker nations and plunder their wealth and natural resources. The cold and calculating domineering powers impose on the weaker nations, the methods of production, consumption and technology that are to the benefit of capitalists. In the weird system of today’s powerful counties, moral and spiritual values have no place and are seen as undesirable liabilities that prevent these powers from reaching economic welfare and what they call true prosperity. However, the exploitation of the weak, the unjust system of distribution and denial of the rights of nations, will end with the reappearance of Imam Mahdi (AS). In the government of the Imam man will witness real economic welfare throughout the world without any discrimination. The main issue in his global government is carrying out social justice and one of the main products of social justice is a highly developed economy that leads to the blossoming of moral and spiritual values as emphasized by the dynamic teachings of Islam.

The eschatological framework is worth highlighting, as it brings out the underlying agenda of Middle East and global conquest implied in the above:

In our discussion of the world in the last days of the earth we had said in our previous editions of this programme that no source has pointed to the exact date when the Savior will appear and only God knows about the exact timing of the reappearance of Imam Mahdi (AS) . . . . Imam Mahdi and steadfast devotees will gather in Mecca . . . . After his appearance the Imam would remain in Mecca for some time, and then go to Medina. According to narrations Sofyani, a descendant of the Prophet’s archenemy Abu Sofyan will seize Syria and attack Iraq and the Hejaz with the ferocity of a beast . . . . many incidents take place in this line and finally Imam Mahdi sends troops who kill the Sofyani in Beit ol-Moqaddas, the Islamic holy city in Palestine that is currently under occupation of the Zionists. . . . Another beautiful moment of the Savior's appearance is the coming down of Prophet Jesus (PBUH) from heaven. Hazrat Mahdi receives him courteously and asks him to lead the prayers. But Jesus says you are more qualified for this than me . . . Imam Mahdi will be the leader while Prophet Jesus will act as his lieutenant in the struggle against oppression and establishment of justice in the world. Jesus had himself given the tidings of the coming of God's last messenger and will see Mohammad's ideals materialize in the time of the Mahdi. The seat of the Mahdi’s global government will be the city of Kufa, where his headquarters will be the Sahla Mosque, presently outside the city that was the home of Prophet Idrees or Enoch long before the great deluge of the times of Prophet Noah. From here he will dominate the east and the west to fill the earth with justice.

This picture dovetails well with Islam expert, Dr Patrick Sookhdeo of Barnabas Fund's outline of Islamic eschatology, as summarised here:

“Muslims believe that Jesus will come back to earth as a Muslim, will marry and have children, then die and be buried near Muhammad. Some traditions assert that at this second coming He will destroy every cross, kill all Jews, convert the Christians to Islam, and reign as king of all Muslims.” [A Christian’s Pocket Guide to Islam, Christian Focus/Isaac, 2002., p. 22.]

In this context, it is also worth the time to cite certain historically and strategically important excerpts from the Last [but one?] Surah of the Quran "handed down," No 9:

5: But when the forbidden months are past, then fight and slay the Pagans wherever ye find them, an seize them, beleaguer them, and lie in wait for them in every stratagem (of war); but if they repent, and establish regular prayers and practise regular charity, then open the way for them: for Allah is Oft-forgiving, Most Merciful. [This is the infamous Sword Verse that takes precedence under the doctrine of Abrogation, over a hundred more irenic passages in the Quran; mostly from the earlier Meccan period. It implies a global agenda of conquest, which led to the -- to the too often unrecognised, unacknowledged, unrepented of -- classical and modern history of Islamic imperialism and supremacism.]

[. . . . ]

29: Fight those who believe not in Allah nor the Last Day, nor hold that forbidden which hath been forbidden by Allah and His Messenger, nor acknowledge the religion of Truth, (even if they are) of the People of the Book, until they pay the Jizya with willing submission, and feel themselves subdued. [This is The Verse of Tribute, which is a cornerstone of dhimmitude, in which non-Muslims under Islamic rule are subjected to harsh, Apartheid-like conditions that deny their basic human rights.]

30: The Jews call 'Uzair a son of Allah, and the Christians call Christ the son of Allah. That is a saying from their mouth; (in this) they but imitate what the unbelievers of old used to say. Allah's curse be on them: how they are deluded away from the Truth!

31: They take their priests and their anchorites to be their lords in derogation of Allah, and (they take as their Lord) Christ the son of Mary; yet they were commanded to worship but One Allah: there is no god but He. Praise and glory to Him: (Far is He) from having the partners they associate (with Him).

32: Fain would they extinguish Allah's light with their mouths, but Allah will not allow but that His light should be perfected, even though the Unbelievers may detest (it).

33: It is He Who hath sent His Messenger with guidance and the Religion of Truth, to proclaim it over all religion, even though the Pagans may detest (it).

Many points in the above are worth a comment; but in the interests of brevity and focus, let us highlight a select, telling few:

1] Observe the key turnabout rhetorical tactic: presenting Islamic imperialism and an agenda of global conquest as a socialist-style "liberation struggle" against Western domination in the name of "justice." [This is an all- too- familiar tactic of would-be world conquerers in the past Century: Hitler and his Axis associates used it, and so did the Marxist-Leninists. Its best refutation is the fact of oppression that resulted wherever these ideologies predomninated. For all its flaws and sins -- which are legion -- the West has in the past Century been demonstrably the lesser of evils. It is not irrelevant to note that, materially (indeed, arguably, largely) through the prophetic impact of the Judaeo-Christian message, has a centuries-long track record of being open to criticism, repentance and reformation from its worst evils.]

2] Next, observe the actual CURRENT declared agenda of global subjugation under Islam: "the unjust system of distribution and denial of the rights of nations, will end with the reappearance of Imam Mahdi (AS) . . . The main issue in his global government is carrying out social justice. " In short, as the further excerpt on the Islamic eschatology shows:

"Imam Mahdi will be the leader while Prophet Jesus will act as his lieutenant in the struggle against oppression and establishment of justice in the world . . . The seat of the Mahdi’s global government will be the city of Kufa, where his headquarters will be the Sahla Mosque . . . From here he will dominate the east and the west to fill the earth with justice."

3] As the Quran's Surah 9 affirms, this is all under the doctrine that Islam is to be advanced by the sword, which is exactly what history abundantly affirms. (In that context, "oppression" really means, government that is not under Allah's religion, laws, prophet and warriors.) But then, under Allah's government and religion, non-muslims are to be subjected to discriminatory adn confiscatory taxes and other steps to ensure that they are not only under subjugation but feel themselves hopelessly subjugated. It is but as short step from that to the Apartheid-like status of dhimmitude that Bat Ye'or so abundantly has documented. Is that what "justice" means?

4] We hardly need to pause to note on the misrepresentation of Jewish teaching in Surah 9, nor the distortion of the doctrine of the Trinity. We need only observe that it is a sad – but telling -- comment that Allah's Prophet, reciting what was “handed down,” does not get basic, standard Jewish and Christian Theology straight. [Cf this discussion on the nature of the Trinity and its rationale, and this one on the authenticity of Paul's theology, as these distortions are often raised by Islamic Apologists.]

5] It is worth noting the spiritually diagnostic attempt to deny the Deity of Christ [that is what "son of Mary" implies, cf. Quran, Surah 4:48 and 171, and 5:116; briefly discussed here] and to "demote" him relative to the Mahdi, the "true" Saviour figure in the Islamist eschatology being presented. Thus, it is fair comment to now point to 1 John 2:18 - 28, and 4:1 - 3 and invite comparison with the Islamist teachings above.

6] Further, let us put all of this in current context: this is under an Iran that ever since 1979 has been using murderous terrorism as a major tactic to advance its Islamist agenda, is now credibly pursuing nuclear weapons, is led by a man who has repeatedly denied the fact (much less the significance) of the Holocaust, and in the next breath has set out to wipe Israel from the face of the Map.

7] Finally on this, Mr Ahmadinejad evidently expects the Mahdi to appear soon, and so the article's references to the Mahdi possibly appearing in the spring may therefore be highly significant.

Against that backdrop, we need to consider again the attitude of denial here in the Caribbean and in the wider world highlighted in No. 10 in this blog series:

. . . the real potency of the Islamist threat lies not in that threat itself, but in our persistent wishful thinking, self-doubt and attitude of denial in the face of mounting danger. In short, we have got to first resolutely face the truth about ourselves and the tidal wave of secularism, apostasy and amorality from the North (i.e. within the gates of Western Culture), before we can do something about the rising invasion from without. After all, an enemy who freely walks and talks among us in culturally nuanced accents as one of our own, is always far more dangerous than one not yet fully within the gates . . . .

[W]e must first of all state the obvious truths of the gospel that those who would impose an atheistic, amoral spirit on Caribbean and Western Culture are all too eager to suppress. For, we are not an atheistic civilisation; we are a Christian civilisation that -- through our own apostasy, lust and greed for riches through exploiting our brothers, and resulting failure to rise to deceitful challenges from within -- have been bewitched, lassoed and saddled by those riding on a tidal wave of secularism, apostasy and neo-paganism.

Then, we can rise to our own Blonie Fields moment [i.e. a time of Spirit-given refreshing and breakthrough] . . . .

So, now, again, we must face the challenge that we are in a time of kairos.

May God grant us courage to face and then address the true gravity of our global situation, and rise to the opportunities that God had graciously given us:

[1] The spiritual tidal wave of aggressive, secularism-driven de-Christianisation from the North

[2] The tidal wave of Islamist militancy from the East, now amplified by the rise of Mahdist eschatological speculations.

[3] Our own opportunity to become a critical strategic force in the church's global mission of witness, disciple-making and peaceful reformation.

END

1 Chron 12:32 Report, 15: Abusing Christmas II -- Independent's Mary the Palestinian Atrocity story

Atrocity stories are, sadly, a traditional, and highly effective propaganda tactic that exploits sympathy with a real or perceived victim to slander a target group.

Thus, they are often used to stir up hatred and distract our attention from material facts and context that would shift the balance of our judgement. That is, they are a classic technique that exploits Aristotle's observation in his The Rhetoric that

Our judgements when we are pleased and friendly are not the same as when we are pained and hostile . . .

The "intercessors' lack of bladder control" claim in the UK Independent's December 16 anti-evangelical hit piece "America's Religious Right," is a sadly apt case in point. That is bad enough, but, by December 23, this was joined by another story in the same newspaper that managed to abuse the Advent Season again in such a way as to constitute what has to properly be called anti-Semitic [not "merely" anti-Zionist] agit-prop joined to massive disrespect for Christians.

As the excellent watchdog site Honest Reporting summarises and comments:

. . . the Independent, a leading British daily, describes the Virgin Mary as a "Palestinian refugee in Bethlehem", and present-day pregnant Palestinian women as "21st century Marys" who "have been giving birth in startlingly similar conditions to those suffered by Mary 2,000 years ago."

The December 23 article by Johann Hari paints a picture of Israeli malevolence towards pregnant Palestinian women, quoting a Palestinian woman who rails against harsh conditions supposedly caused by Israel:

"What would happen if the Virgin Mary came to Bethlehem today? She would endure what I have endured."

Yet, readers must scroll down halfway through this 1,500-word piece to discover the real cause of Palestinian suffering:

"Following the election of Hamas, the world choked off funding for the Palestinian Authority, which suddenly found itself unable to pay its doctors and nurses. After several months medical staff went on strike, refusing to take anything but emergency cases."

The Independent blames Israel for checkpoint security measures, but fails to provide context with the well-documented Palestinian abuse of ambulances and medical facilities to transport and harbor terrorists. Nor does the Independent mention the 2002 arrest of a Palestinian terrorist recruited to carry out a suicide bombing disguised as a pregnant woman -- a graphic reminder of the depths that terror groups will sink in their efforts to bypass Israeli security . . .

It is worth taking a little deeper look. For, the Independent's account (under their "appeals" heading, which should warn us that this is an advocacy piece, at best) begins:

In two days, a third of humanity will gather to celebrate the birth pains of a Palestinian refugee in Bethlehem - but two millennia later, another mother in another glorified stable in this rubble-strewn, locked-down town is trying not to howl.

Fadia Jemal is a gap-toothed 27-year-old with a weary, watery smile. "What would happen if the Virgin Mary came to Bethlehem today? She would endure what I have endured," she says [and then recounts a five year old account of how she was stopped by an Israeli check-point and reportedly gave birth there, losing one of her twin children as a result] . . .

There are, however, a few balancing and corrective observations that need to be made:

1] In the First Century, the region in which Bethlehem is located was generally known as "Judaea," with Samaria and Galilee as the other two major subregions. The name Syria Palestina (later shortened to Palestinia) was imposed by the Roman Emperor Hadrian in 135 AD, after his defeat of the second Jewish liberation struggle in seventy years -- in an attempt to erase the memory of the Jews by re-naming the area after their worst traditional enemies; the Philistines. [And that is true even if one insists on dredging up, e.g. the C5 BC Greek Historian, Herodotus' unusual, earlier use of a similar term.]

2] Let us note in passing, that at Advent we celebrate the birth of Jesus the Christ, not mainly "the birth-pains of" Miriam of Galilee; his mother. (This apparently trivial point tellingly reveals just how far many journalists will go today, to suppress references to our Lord and Saviour; HT: Joseph Farah.)

3] Further to this, as Matt 1 records, the context of Jesus' birth is distinctively Jewish, Incarnational [cf John 1:1 - 14 and Heb 1:1 - 14!] and messianic:

MT 1:20 . . . an angel of the Lord appeared . . . in a dream and said, "Joseph son of David, do not be afraid to take Mary home as your wife, because what is conceived in her is from the Holy Spirit. 21 She will give birth to a son, and you are to give him the name Jesus, because he will save his people from their sins."

MT 1:22 All this took place to fulfill what the Lord had said through the prophet: 23 "The virgin will be with child and will give birth to a son, and they will call him Immanuel" --which means, "God with us."

MT 1:24 When Joseph woke up, he did what the angel of the Lord had commanded him and took Mary home as his wife. 25 But he had no union with her until she gave birth to a son. And he gave him the name Jesus.

MT 2:1 After Jesus was born in Bethlehem in Judea, during the time of King Herod, Magi from the east came to Jerusalem 2 and asked, "Where is the one who has been born king of the Jews? We saw his star in the east and have come to worship him."

MT 2:3 When King Herod heard this he was disturbed, and all Jerusalem with him. 4 When he had called together all the people's chief priests and teachers of the law, he asked them where the Christ was to be born. 5 "In Bethlehem in Judea," they replied . . .

4] All of this becomes highly significant when we note that in our day the term Palestinian refugee has come to mean, by usage, an Arab, usually Muslim person who fled the region of Israel at its birth or subsequently; or -- strictly, improperly -- the descendants thereof. Cf here and here (and here too) for correctives and balancing facts on the relevant history of modern Israel. In brief:

--> First, the existence of modern Israel is as the result of endurance in the land by some Jews across the years, who were joined from the mid 1800's by returnees who sought to rebuild the largely ruinate and depopulated land. Their success attracted waves of people, of Jewish, Arab and many other ethnicities.

--> Thus, the League of Nations in the 1920s -- as a part of the post- WW I settlements of the many claims of national groups in the aftermath of the disintegration of the Austrian, Russian and Ottoman Empires -- mandated the establishment of a recognised Jewish homeland, while not prejudicing the existing population.

--> Unfortunately, hostility led by the Mufti of Jerusalem led to war and terrorism, instead of the mutually supportive development of the Arab and Jewish nations in the Middle East envisioned in the 1919 Weizmann-Feisal agreement. (This is why I have often noted that unless you can discuss this agreement in an informed way, you do not know enough to competently and fairly discuss the ME situation.)

--> As one result of this conflict, there was an exchange of Middle East refugee populations, some 400 - 750,000 on the Arab side, 820,00- on the Jewish side. The exchange of property was also favourable to the Arabs. The Jews were largely settled in Israel and have become the core population of the country. Those Arabs who remained in Israel or resettled there under Israeli offers and their descendants -- some 1.5 millions -- have become the freest, healthiest, most prosperous Arabs in the Middle East.

--> The current conflicts, like the 1948 - 9 war, were precipitated by attempts to resolve the conflict through partitioning the land, granting to the Arabs what is the historic Jewish heartland of "the mountains of Judaea" because that is where they are dominant among the population. This underscores the often suppressedbut obvious fact that - sadly -- by and large the core Arab objective remains, not peace alongside their cousins the Jews, but domination and conquest.

--> A similar pattern of events has for decades been playing out in Lebanon, Sudan, Nigeria, Indonesia and elsewhere, on one pretext or another. Similarly, we should look at the current pattern of driving out and displacing the Christian Arabs of Bethlehem [who used to be ~ 80% of the population, but now are ~ 20%] by Islamist militants. We have to see beyond the pretexts to the common pattern and underlying global agenda. (Mr Jimmy Carter's recent book, sadly, is most unhelpful on this -- starting with a slanderous title.)

--> In turn, this pattern is driven by what on a fair comments basis can be described as the the core cultural vision of radical (and, unfortunately, classical) Islam: the world is divided into Dar ul Islam and Dar ul Harb: the regions of submission to Allah, his prophet, law and warriors on the one hand, and the house of war on the other. So, following Mohammed's own example and teachings, Islam was first largely spread by conquest.

--> In Islamist eschatology, Dar ul Islam will subjugate the world, and eventually the whole globe will be under Muslim control. [Cf the Muslim Brotherhood's 100 year world subjugation plan since 1982.] So, in that context, the rise and thriving of an indomitable "dhimmi"-ruled state in areas conquered by Allah's warriors since 638 AD is an affront to Islam, almost blasphemy.

--> Consequently, until/unless this issue is resolved through a liberalising reformation of Islam, there can be no permanent settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict, or for that matter, many other similar Islamism-driven conflicts.

5] So, by distorting and suppressing highly material context, the article immediately becomes highly misleading: Mary was NOT an Arab or even a Jewish Refugee, she was a Jewish victim of Roman occupation, forced to go to Bethlehem even while nine-months pregnant, to pay an oppressive tax. Two futile revolts against that oppression, AD 66 - 73/4, and 133 - 135, would only issue in slaughter, enslavement and exile. (It bears noting that the land was never fully depopulated of Jews, and that from the days of David and beyond, Jews have been historically quite willing to share the land with non-Jewish populations. Indeed, David himself -- the greatest Jewish King, but one -- was part-Moabite.]

6] By suppressing this highly relevant context, which utterly undermines the core premise of the article, we see that it is only fair comment to note that the Independent here -- one hopes inadvertently -- slips into not only Anti-Zionist, but also Anti-Semitic rhetoric. [NB: As Martin Luther King tellingly observed, historically and ideologically, these two ideas and agendas are inextricably linked in any case; many hot protests to the contrary notwithstanding.]

7] Nor do the agitprop problems stop there: an improper line is drawn from what an evidently uncorroborated report on an unauthorised, cruel and criminal act by a few soldiers manning a check-point some five years ago, to a hasty generalisation on a current health services challenge that in reality is in the main triggered by a situation precipitated by the Palestinian Arabs and their political leadership; who insist on clinging to violence and terrorism in the teeth of many reasonable opportunities to make peace. [Can any right-thinking person believe that, absent legitimate security concerns, needy Palestinain Arabs would be denied immediate access to Israeli hospitals? Hospitals which, BTW, were chock full of the victims of islamist terrorist bombings at the time of the alleged incident five years ago.]

So distorted is the article, and so unresponsive to material facts and proper standards of journalism, that the Independent's Editors should soberly reflect on an observation Hugh Fitzgerald [of Jihad Watch] makes on the hook incident from which their article hangs:

"What would happen if the Virgin Mary came to Bethlehem today?" -- remark by a local "Palestinian" Arab in [The Independent article] . . . .

That's easy.

Mary, Joseph, and the baby they are about to have are all, of course, Jewish. And if the Virgin Mary (presumably with Joseph) were to arrive in Bethlehem today, and arrived without the IDF around them, in a place now controlled by the kind of Palestinian Muslim Arabs who are there now, they would be killed on the spot . . . .

[I]f you need evidence for that, start with any number of Israeli hitchhikers picked up and murdered, or those two Israeli boys beaten to death in a cave, or those two Israeli reservists who took a wrong turn into Ramallah and were lynched, as those who killed them and gouged out their eyes held up their bloody hands to a crowd below hysterical with its own happiness and hate, or those four little Jewish girls sitting in their car, methodically shot to death, one by one . . .

A sad litany of hate. And, atrocity stories such as the Independent has now repeatedly chosen to plaster over this current Advent Season will not help matters.

One hopes for a more balanced approach in this dawning new year, but in the meanwhile, we would be well advised to make a New Year's resolution:

Resolved: to learn how to de-spin distorted media stories and straighten out twisted thinking,

. . . if we are to properly understand our times and know what we should do. END