Friday, June 24, 2016

BREXIT! Where are we now? (In a lot of trouble, but not without hope.)

. . . including, regarding major trends of our civilisation vis a vis the IslamISTS, also as a civilisation, we face "seven mountains of influence" issues.

I add, the initial cliff-edge fall-off in the Pound [US$ 1.50 --> 1.44] as Sunderland gave the first indication Brexit would likely win:

Sky News, live:

Guardian graphic breakdown of the vote:

Key initial impacts:
  • UK Prime Minister, David Cameron has resigned, staying on as a three-month caretaker
  • Former Mayor of London Boris Johnson (leader of the Brexit campaign) is tipped a likely successor
  • A 2 - 4 year estimated Lisbon Article 50 leave process is likely to begin under Cameron's successor.
  • The Governor of the Bank of England has promised liquidity in Pounds and key foreign currencies to ease pressure on UK markets and the currency.
  • Key stocks, starting with leading banks are off by up to 1/5.
  • FTSE initially has dived 6.95% though as of this writing it has clawed its way back above the 6,000 threshold,
  • the GBP dived 5.77% against the Euro (which is itself falling), and up to 8.46% against the US$, hitting as low as $1.36 down from $1.50 on the eve of the vote. The Yen is rising.
  • Gold is surging, oil is falling.
  • The Scots have long since warned that a Brexit would re-open the independence question, which would have major consequences for the UK's geostrategic stance in the world, and knock-on effects for the global economy and stability.
  • And much more . . .
Geostrategic issues are of sobering concern when we consider the global geostrategic situation:

We must also ponder civilisation level trends, for which the (generic) seven mountains of influence approach may be helpful:

One obvious implication is this is a sign of rising nationalism in the midst of an unsettling and utterly atypical US Election year that just saw an assassination attempt -- directly parallel to the murder of a UK Member of Parliament. (If anything, that would tend to favour Mr Trump; providing, he does in fact become the Republican nominee.)

As touching origins debates and linked concerns relevant to Intelligent Design and to the historic Judaeo-Christian heritage of our civilisation, the key issue will be the power moves made during a time of uncertainties and instabilities. 

For, we deal with those of the Marxian type view that a "crisis" must not go to "waste."

Here in Montserrat and in the wider Caribbean, we just took a direct, hard hit as both the UK and the European Union are key development partners. 

A Turtle, head and limbs in the shell . . .
An article at The Montserrat Reporter explores such impacts, for Montserrat. Regional leaders and the public should ponder the thoughts and concerns raised. Above all, we must not panic or go into a head-in-the-shell mode.

Vigilance, is eternally the price of liberty. END