A KAIROSFOCUS BRIEFING NOTE
On the Troubling Case of Dr Richard Sternberg
NOTE: Over the past several months, I have been an active participant in the Evangelical Outpost Blog, in particular on themes relating to the origins of the cosmos and life in it. In the course of such, I have had several exchanges with other active commentators, including Dr Larry Lord, who has requested permission to cite my comments elsewhere. Unfortunately, on track record, I cannot trust that such citation and comments will be fair and representative of what I have had to say. I have therefore stipulated that he cite the below as a condition of any such citations. This post also appears in the web page: http://www.angelfire.com/pro/kairosfocus/resources/On_Sternberg.htm, and a recent media interview with Mr Bill O'Reilly may be found at http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,166831,00.html, with a revealing column at http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/klinghoffer200508160826.asp . Over the next little while I will be returning to a more active profile onthis blog as well as my main site. GEM
ON THE TROUBLING CASE OF DR RICHARD STERNBERG
Mr Richard M von Sternberg, a researcher in the Smithsonian who holds two PhDs in Biology and who advocates structuralism [cf:http://www.rsternberg.net/ ], has, on the so far uncontested findings of an OSC investigation [cf. http://www.rsternberg.net/OSC_ltr.htm], edited and published a controversial journal article by Mr Meyer that passed peer review by "renowned scientists."
Because the article cuts across the dominant NDT, the publication of such scientific "heresy" appears, in light of the OSC's findings, to have led to sustained harassment and intimidation, compounded by slanders. Such a situation, sadly, does not reflect well on the ethics of leading scientists and institutions in the USA, as is documented by the OSC report, including telling email excerpts.
It is fair comment to observe that if the evident ethical lapses involved are not properly resolved, this will likely lead to a significant public backlash; as failure to police one's profession is a betrayal of public trust.
In the case of Dr Larry Lord, a prolific commentator in the Evangelical Outpost Blog, there has been a consistent and sometimes abusive dismissal of these findings, compounded by an equally persistent failure to provide evidence that warrants the inference that the findings of the OSC, are false or materially misleading.
Dr Lord, a molecular biologist, has also repeatedly failed to materially address the underlying scientific issues when repeatedly called upon to do so, as can be seen in relevant threads in the EO, such as http://www.evangelicaloutpost.com/archives/001549.html .
The key such issue that has yet to be addressed is that the origin of life by spontaneous chemical processes, or the similar diversification observed in the Cambrian Explosion, are arguably implausible in light of the relevant statistical thermodynamics of spontaneous generation of the required information-rich, functionally specified, complex molecular systems. This case has been discussed by Thaxton, Bradley and Olsen since 1984 in their work, the Mystery of Life's Origins, which builds on earlier work by Yockey. [Cf. online chapters at http://www.ldolphin.org/mystery/ ]. This line of work has been extended inter alia by the work of Mr Dembski, Mr Behe and Mr Meyer [Cf. popular summary: http://www.spectator.org/dsp_article.asp?art_id=8543 ], who are major advocates of a minority scientific paradigm, namely "Design Theory."
The 1984 work -- which is in the main based on plausibly applicable implications of the statistical thermodynamics summarised in Boltzmann's equation s = k ln w, was sufficiently impressive that Dr Dean Kenyon, eminent biologist and origin of life researcher, took occasion of writing the foreword to recant his earlier position as stated in his Biochemical Predestination, of which he was a co-author.
I invite dialogue on the above, on condition that the tone is civil and the focus is on the material issues as adverted to supra.
Grace be to you all [cf. Titus 2:11 - 14.]
[Name deleted; contact accessible through the Contact in RH column.]
GEM of TKI
2005:08:28
Sunday, August 28, 2005
Friday, May 27, 2005
Right makes . . . Right
GEM 05:05:25a
GEM 05:05:25a
It has often been said that “the voice of the people is the voice of God.” However, this is just as misleading as the equally common idea that might – or, for that matter; power, or wealth – makes right. In fact, it is right that makes right. So, as we consider our rebuilding/ re-development challenges and an upcoming election cycle (thus the need for us to collectively make a wise decision on our national leadership over the next several years), let us reflect on a key incident in the career of the Apostle Paul, while he was on his way to Rome as an Appeals prisoner:
[Our ship] made slow headway for many days and had difficulty arriving off Cnidus. When the wind did not allow us to hold our course, we sailed to the lee of Crete, opposite Salmone. We moved along the coast with difficulty and came to a place called Fair Havens, near the town of Lasea. Much time had been lost, and sailing had already become dangerous because by now it was after the Fast. So Paul warned them, "Men, I can see that our voyage is going to be disastrous and bring great loss to ship and cargo, and to our own lives also." But the centurion, instead of listening to what Paul said, followed the advice of the pilot and of the owner of the ship. Since the harbor was unsuitable to winter in, the majority decided that we should sail on, hoping to reach Phoenix and winter there. . . . . When a gentle south wind began to blow, they thought they had obtained what they wanted; so they weighed anchor and sailed along the shore of Crete. Before very long, a wind of hurricane force, called the "northeaster," swept down from the island. The ship was caught by the storm and could not head into the wind; so we gave way to it and were driven along . . . When neither sun nor stars appeared for many days and the storm continued raging, we finally gave up all hope of being saved. After the men had gone a long time without food, Paul stood up before them and said: "Men, you should have taken my advice not to sail from Crete; then you would have spared yourselves this damage and loss. But now I urge you to keep up your courage, because not one of you will be lost; only the ship will be destroyed. [Ac 27:7 – 22, as excerpted.]
The incident exposes the down side to collective decision-making:
--> The uncontrollable but partly predictable environment precipitated a crisis: buffetted by heavy head-winds, the ship was delayed until it was necessary to winter in a safe harbour, but the first harbour, Fair Havens, was not fully suitable. So, the majority wanted to move on to a hopefully better prospect, Phoenix.
--> Paul warned of the risk involved, but the owner and the kubernete spoke with the voice of wealth and technical know-how respectively: they were more than willing to go along with the crowd, and advised the Centurion in charge to run a dangerous risk in the hope of a quick and desirable advantage.
--> As a result, the lone voice of safety and caution was easily overwhelmed by the majority, backed up by wealth and technical expertise; so the decision was to go ahead if opportunity should present itself.
--> Soon, a gentle south wind seemed to offer every advantage, and it was eagerly seized. But, before long, sudden disaster struck in the form of an early winter storm, and at once the ship was reduced to sinking condition, forcing the sailors to try to see if they could keep off the sandbars off the Libyan coast, and so they were only able to drift across the stormy seas while hope of a safe landfall faded.
--> Then, at the end, it was the very same Paul whose advice and leadership had been dismissed when things were looking good, who had to stand up and give hope and counsel. Then, he had to intervene a third time, to save lives by exposing the sailors’ plot to abandon the passengers as the ship ran aground on the north coast of Malta. So, through his second intervention, the company were all saved, even though the ship and its cargo were lost.
Plainly, this incident exposes the downside of democracy, of technical advice, and of looking to the wealthy and powerful for wise counsel: for, in a world of self-interested sinners the majority, the wealthy, the technically expert and the powerful are often tempted to act in their own perceived interests, rather than on what is wise and right. Sometimes, they get away with it, but that simply makes them less willing to listen to sensible advice the next time around. Sooner or later, such self-interested, reckless action leads to disaster. For, it is what is right that is right, regardless of who proposes or supports or opposes it. As David counselled: “Except the LORD build the house, they labour in vain that build it . . .” Ps 127:1a.
So, now, let’s reflect on our own circumstances as we work to rebuild Montserrat; then let’s talk, let’s pray and let’s act.
AMEN
Sunday, April 24, 2005
A useful source on Rastafarianism
GEM 05:04:24
GEM 05:04:24
A couple of weeks back, on the Let’s Talk ZJB radio talk show here in Montserrat, a caller in the 9 pm call-in segment raised several typical Rastafarian talking points:
1] The inappropriately “white” Jesus of older Sunday School art [NB: he was a Semite, and so probably looked much like a Bedouin Arab does; cf. http://www.bibarch.com/News/News-Genetic-Brothers.htm and http://www.barzan.com/kevin_brook.htm on Abraham’s family and – given that the Kurds inhabit the region where the Northern Kingdom was exiled in 722 BC – perhaps some of the “lost tribes”];
2] His alleged status as a Nazirite [NB: this is based on an error, cf. Num. 6:1 – 7 with Matt. 11:16 – 19; for, Jesus of NazARETH drank wine, strictly forbidden to NazIRITES];
3] Christian failure to teach from the whole Bible (instead focussing on certain NT books and texts, especially from the writings of Paul; cf. http://www.angelfire.com/pro/kairosfocus/resources/PAUL_AND_CHRIST.htm );
4] The demand that Rastafarian thought be given an equally credible seat at the dialogue table [cf. http://www.angelfire.com/pro/kairosfocus/resources/straight_or_spin.htm ].
The resulting, subtly strained, on-air discussion set me to thinking. For in fact, while the questions the caller raised are significant, normally the church in the Caribbean does not devote much thought or effort to what is after all a regionally rooted, commonly encountered challenge to the orthoodox Christian faith; one that especially appeals to disaffected young men who are looking for roots in an African cultural identity. Indeed, while in fact several scholarly studies have been done and can be found in various libraries, I know of no handy reference on Rastafarianism and the issues it raises that is suitable for use by -- and commonly available to – Christians and others across the region who often encounter this sect and its teachings.
Why is that so?
On reflection, and with a bit of shame, I have to admit that, partly, this reflects the facts that (1) by and large, Caribbean Evangelicals are not long on scholarship, and (2) perhaps partly as a result, we do not really take Rastafarianism and the concerns and issues it reflects and projects seriously. Indeed, Rastas are quite commonly viewed as just a bunch of Ganja-smoking, half-baked, ill-educated -- or even half-mad -- malcontents. And, where we move beyond such ill-judged contempt and sweeping dismissals, the focus tends to be on the need for rootedness in Africa and the plight of the Black Man, so the serious theological and historical issues that lurk just below the surface of their claims are simply set to one side.
Neither response is acceptable, if we are to “truth it in love” as Paul counsels in Eph. 5:14 - 15.
Rastafarianism did in fact arise in Jamaica in the 1930’s as a movement of protest in a world where the black man was – and to a greater extent than we are willing to admit, still is – the principal victim of the global world and its trading system that began to emerge in the 1490’s when the Portuguese rounded Cape Horn and sailed on to India, and when one of their former captains, Columbus, sailed across the Atlantic and reached the Caribbean. That painful, and yet unfinished history has to be fully addressed, including the under-reported but pivotal and often painful role of the dissenting churches, black missionaries and church leaders such as George Liele, Sam Sharpe and George William Gordon in our liberation struggles. [Cf. http://www.angelfire.com/pro/kairosfocus/resources/Carib_liberty.htm ]
But equally, while we must appreciate the contribution of Rastafarians such as Bob Marley to the emergence of a comfortable black consciousness, if Christians are to retain street credibility, we must fully and fairly address the theological, historical and philosophical issues and concerns that the movement raises.
For instance, first and foremost, Rastafarianism is about viewing the last Emperor of Ethiopia as the biblical Messiah and God incarnate, so a proper response must begin with a brief and objective look at his history such as we may find at the Wikipedia site: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haile_Selassie_of_Ethiopia . There, we will see that Haile Selassie’s life-story is partly inspiring, but partly tragically spoiled with the incompetence and corruption that so often taints those who hold absolute political power. We will also learn that Tafari Makkonen (his birth name; “Ras” means “duke”) was a life-long member of the Orthodox Christian Church of Ethiopia, and that he sent Christian missionaries to gently correct and guide the Rastas to a sounder faith in Christ when he realised (on an April 1966 state visit to Jamaica) that there was a sect in the Caribbean that was trying to worship him.
So, now, let’s talk . . . AMEN.
Thursday, April 07, 2005
An Era Passes
GEM 05:04:06a
GEM 05:04:06a
Over the past few days, through global TV coverage, the world witnessed the passing of Pope John Paul II, and that of one of the ~ 1 billion members of his global flock, Mrs Terri Schiavo. These events were epochal, and so they help us achieve that understanding of our times that will help us know what we should do. [Cf. 1 Chron 12:32.]
For:
- As John Paul passed away, we saw a curious blend of responses. On the one hand, there were accolades to a great man who first resisted Nazi tyranny in his native land, Poland as a nineteen-year-old youth. Then, across a long career as a priest, Bishop, theologian-philosopher, and finally, Pope, he helped liberate hundreds of millions of victims of Communist tyranny in Eastern Europe and reached out across ancient enmities, quarrels and hurts to bring healing and seek reconciliation. But at the same time, while the New York Times could easily find sharp critiques it was reduced to an all too revealing inadvertently published line in its online obituary: “need some quote from supporter.” Why? Simple: the late Pope was a Traditionalist, especially on morality.
- Similarly, Mrs Schiavo suffered brain damage fifteen years ago, and her husband won a million-dollar settlement intended to maintain her for fifty years. However, she was starved and dehydrated to death on court order at the request of Mr Schiavo (who for the past ten years has been living with another woman by whom he has fathered two children). This was done despite serious questions from competent medical personnel about the accuracy of her “persistent vegetative state” diagnosis – for which not even a MRI scan has been done. Why? Because “progressive” legal thought no longer permits us to consider the point that such blatant adultery is an abandonment of the marriage, so Mr Schiavo retained his position as legal guardian. On his orders, key tests simply were not done. His argument was clear: Terri would not wish to live with such a low quality life, so food and water should be withheld till she died. And so, over the strong protest of her family and many others, that is just what was done. Chillingly, we know the underlying concept all too well from the recent, grim history of the late Pope’s motherland: “life unworthy of life” was Hitler’s rhetorical basis for euthanasia -- and it soon became the operating principle of the infamous Nazi death camps, such as the most infamous of all: the one they built in conquered Poland, Auschwitz. Thirteen millions perished in those camps, including six million Jews, but already we are forgetting the lesson.
In a region where some 25% of both employment and National Income come from tourism, that clash between morality and economic interests is a serious, immediate concern. For, as we saw last year in our own local controversy over the proposed Gambling Act, we are now increasingly being offered a false “choice”: between prosperity and adherence to sound principle. “[A] false choice”? Yes, for sound society is rooted in principled restraint of our desires, agendas and passions. So, if we seek prosperity at the expense of moral principles rooted in respect for liberty, order, opportunity and justice based on our being equally created in God’s image, there can be no foundation for rebuilding our nation as a healthy, wholesome, truly democratic, God-blessed community.
Thus, the big challenge ahead is quite plain: how can we develop our nation without fatally compromising the moral principles that give us a community worth living in? To that issue, we must now turn our thoughts.
So now, let’s talk . . . AMEN
Saturday, April 02, 2005
The Rebuilding of Montserrat, 8:
On St Patrick's Day
GEM 05:03:23a
Week before last, we the people of Montserrat celebrated St Patrick's Day, as our National Day. For, in 1768, there was an uprising as slaves tried to strike a blow for freeedom: they had observed that on Ireland's national day, their Irish masters would gather together and celebrate with much strong drink. So, what better day to strike for freedom?
However, their plans were detected, and the uprising became an abortive slaughter. So, on March 17th, we remembered their sacrifice as the first step to the freedom we enjoy today. But, also, there are several yet-burning issues that the 1768 incident surfaces:
1] St Patrick himself, as a 16 year-old lad in Britain, was kidnapped and sold into slavery in Ireland, where adversity helped him deepen his Christian Faith. He managed to escape after six or seven years and returned to Ireland decades later as a Missionary Bishop, with such great success that the anniversary of his death, March 17, 493, is Ireland's national day.
2] For instance, it is said that in his second meeting with the assembled pagan chieftains of Erin, he was challenged about the apparent illogicality of the Trinity. He plucked a three-leaf shamrock and began: "Is this one leaf or three? If one leaf, why are there three lobes of equal size? If three leaves, why is there just one stem? If you cannot explain so simple a mystery . . . how can you hope to understand . . . the Holy Trinity?" The Shamrock leaf, of course, has long been a national symbol of both Christian Ireland and Montserrat.
3] Over a thousand years later, the long-since Christianised Irish were under the English boot-heel and repeatedly rose up to try to liberate themselves. (Eventually, after decades of futile debate over Home Rule, the bloodily suppressed 1916 Easter Rebellion led to the creation of the Republic of Ireland, and to the lingering conflict in Northern Ireland.)
4] Many Irish settlers in the Caribbean came as indentured servants, often labouring under slave-like conditions for a period of up to seven years.
5] The Irish settlers in Montserrat came here from St Kitts, to find freedom to practice their Catholic Faith.
How then could men from a Christian nation whose patron saint was an escaped slave, and who themselves longed for liberty, then turn around and cruelly enslave and oppress other men? Why is it that the national day, named after that Patron Saint, has so often become an occasion for drunken revelry?
The answers are as painful as they are simple:
1] Until a dozen Christians -- through the heart-softening impact of the great evangelical awakening then occurring in Britain -- founded the first antislavery society in London in 1787, no-one had dared to challenge slavery as an institution. So, despite Biblical rebukes to oppression, injustice and kidnapping, generally slavery was at most seen as a personal misfortune rather than an inescapably illegitimate institution. And, it would take fifty years for their campaign to triumph in the teeth of bitter, well-funded and clever opposition.
2] The lifestyle of many of the slave-masters of 1768 also speaks loud and clear: men who celebrate the memory of a great Christian Missionary by becoming drunk plainly and sadly know little of the gospel, and live less of it. Indeed, the Britain of that era was so corrupt that William Wilberforce said that many men pretended to be worse than they really were, or they would not have credibility with the leading men of the time. No wonder a major strategic focus of his campaigns against slavery and dozens of other major social ills was "to make goodness fashionable."
In short, while the gospel naturally works to save souls, renew minds, improve lives and transform institutions and communities, it is clear that this is in the teeth of the social implications of sin-darkened understanding, sin-hardened hearts and sin-numbed consciences. And, as (1) the controversies over gambling and (2) the bitterly challenged success of Uganda's common-sense, traditional morality-based ABC strategy to combat HIV/AIDS demonstrate all too plainly, that has major implications for us as we seek to rebuild our nation as a healthy, wholesome, truly democratic, God-fearing community. AMEN
On St Patrick's Day
GEM 05:03:23a
Week before last, we the people of Montserrat celebrated St Patrick's Day, as our National Day. For, in 1768, there was an uprising as slaves tried to strike a blow for freeedom: they had observed that on Ireland's national day, their Irish masters would gather together and celebrate with much strong drink. So, what better day to strike for freedom?
However, their plans were detected, and the uprising became an abortive slaughter. So, on March 17th, we remembered their sacrifice as the first step to the freedom we enjoy today. But, also, there are several yet-burning issues that the 1768 incident surfaces:
1] St Patrick himself, as a 16 year-old lad in Britain, was kidnapped and sold into slavery in Ireland, where adversity helped him deepen his Christian Faith. He managed to escape after six or seven years and returned to Ireland decades later as a Missionary Bishop, with such great success that the anniversary of his death, March 17, 493, is Ireland's national day.
2] For instance, it is said that in his second meeting with the assembled pagan chieftains of Erin, he was challenged about the apparent illogicality of the Trinity. He plucked a three-leaf shamrock and began: "Is this one leaf or three? If one leaf, why are there three lobes of equal size? If three leaves, why is there just one stem? If you cannot explain so simple a mystery . . . how can you hope to understand . . . the Holy Trinity?" The Shamrock leaf, of course, has long been a national symbol of both Christian Ireland and Montserrat.
3] Over a thousand years later, the long-since Christianised Irish were under the English boot-heel and repeatedly rose up to try to liberate themselves. (Eventually, after decades of futile debate over Home Rule, the bloodily suppressed 1916 Easter Rebellion led to the creation of the Republic of Ireland, and to the lingering conflict in Northern Ireland.)
4] Many Irish settlers in the Caribbean came as indentured servants, often labouring under slave-like conditions for a period of up to seven years.
5] The Irish settlers in Montserrat came here from St Kitts, to find freedom to practice their Catholic Faith.
How then could men from a Christian nation whose patron saint was an escaped slave, and who themselves longed for liberty, then turn around and cruelly enslave and oppress other men? Why is it that the national day, named after that Patron Saint, has so often become an occasion for drunken revelry?
The answers are as painful as they are simple:
1] Until a dozen Christians -- through the heart-softening impact of the great evangelical awakening then occurring in Britain -- founded the first antislavery society in London in 1787, no-one had dared to challenge slavery as an institution. So, despite Biblical rebukes to oppression, injustice and kidnapping, generally slavery was at most seen as a personal misfortune rather than an inescapably illegitimate institution. And, it would take fifty years for their campaign to triumph in the teeth of bitter, well-funded and clever opposition.
2] The lifestyle of many of the slave-masters of 1768 also speaks loud and clear: men who celebrate the memory of a great Christian Missionary by becoming drunk plainly and sadly know little of the gospel, and live less of it. Indeed, the Britain of that era was so corrupt that William Wilberforce said that many men pretended to be worse than they really were, or they would not have credibility with the leading men of the time. No wonder a major strategic focus of his campaigns against slavery and dozens of other major social ills was "to make goodness fashionable."
In short, while the gospel naturally works to save souls, renew minds, improve lives and transform institutions and communities, it is clear that this is in the teeth of the social implications of sin-darkened understanding, sin-hardened hearts and sin-numbed consciences. And, as (1) the controversies over gambling and (2) the bitterly challenged success of Uganda's common-sense, traditional morality-based ABC strategy to combat HIV/AIDS demonstrate all too plainly, that has major implications for us as we seek to rebuild our nation as a healthy, wholesome, truly democratic, God-fearing community. AMEN
The Rebuilding of Montserrat, 8:
On St Patrick's Day
GEM 05:03:23a
Week before last, we the people of Montserrat celebrated St Patrick's Day, as our National Day. For, in 1768, there was an uprising as slaves tried to strike a blow for freeedom: they had observed that on Ireland's national day, their Irish masters would gather together and celebrate with much strong drink. So, what better day to strike for freedom?
However, their plans were detected, and the uprising became an abortive slaughter. So, on March 17th, we remembered their sacrifice as the first step to the freedom we enjoy today. But, also, there are several yet-burning issues that the 1768 incident surfaces:
1] St Patrick himself, as a 16 year-old lad in Britain, was kidnapped and sold into slavery in Ireland, where adversity helped him deepen his Christian Faith. He managed to escape after six or seven years and returned to Ireland decades later as a Missionary Bishop, with such great success that the anniversary of his death, March 17, 493, is Ireland's national day.
2] For instance, it is said that in his second meeting with the assembled pagan chieftains of Erin, he was challenged about the apparent illogicality of the Trinity. He plucked a three-leaf shamrock and began: "Is this one leaf or three? If one leaf, why are there three lobes of equal size? If three leaves, why is there just one stem? If you cannot explain so simple a mystery . . . how can you hope to understand . . . the Holy Trinity?" The Shamrock leaf, of course, has long been a national symbol of both Christian Ireland and Montserrat.
3] Over a thousand years later, the long-since Christianised Irish were under the English boot-heel and repeatedly rose up to try to liberate themselves. (Eventually, after decades of futile debate over Home Rule, the bloodily suppressed 1916 Easter Rebellion led to the creation of the Republic of Ireland, and to the lingering conflict in Northern Ireland.)
4] Many Irish settlers in the Caribbean came as indentured servants, often labouring under slave-like conditions for a period of up to seven years.
5] The Irish settlers in Montserrat came here from St Kitts, to find freedom to practice their Catholic Faith.
How then could men from a Christian nation whose patron saint was an escaped slave, and who themselves longed for liberty, then turn around and cruelly enslave and oppress other men? Why is it that the national day, named after that Patron Saint, has so often become an occasion for drunken revelry?
The answers are as painful as they are simple:
1] Until a dozen Christians -- through the heart-softening impact of the great evangelical awakening then occurring in Britain -- founded the first antislavery society in London in 1787, no-one had dared to challenge slavery as an institution. So, despite Biblical rebukes to oppression, injustice and kidnapping, generally slavery was at most seen as a personal misfortune rather than an inescapably illegitimate institution. And, it would take fifty years for their campaign to triumph in the teeth of bitter, well-funded and clever opposition.
2] The lifestyle of many of the slave-masters of 1768 also speaks loud and clear: men who celebrate the memory of a great Christian Missionary by becoming drunk plainly and sadly know little of the gospel, and live less of it. Indeed, the Britain of that era was so corrupt that William Wilberforce said that many men pretended to be worse than they really were, or they would not have credibility with the leading men of the time. No wonder a major strategic focus of his campaigns against slavery and dozens of other major social ills was "to make goodness fashionable."
In short, while the gospel naturally works to save souls, renew minds, improve lives and transform institutions and communities, it is clear that this is in the teeth of the social implications of sin-darkened understanding, sin-hardened hearts and sin-numbed consciences. And, as (1) the controversies over gambling and (2) the bitterly challenged success of Uganda's common-sense, traditional morality-based ABC strategy to combat HIV/AIDS demonstrate all too plainly, that has major implications for us as we seek to rebuild our nation as a healthy, wholesome, truly democratic, God-fearing community. AMEN
On St Patrick's Day
GEM 05:03:23a
Week before last, we the people of Montserrat celebrated St Patrick's Day, as our National Day. For, in 1768, there was an uprising as slaves tried to strike a blow for freeedom: they had observed that on Ireland's national day, their Irish masters would gather together and celebrate with much strong drink. So, what better day to strike for freedom?
However, their plans were detected, and the uprising became an abortive slaughter. So, on March 17th, we remembered their sacrifice as the first step to the freedom we enjoy today. But, also, there are several yet-burning issues that the 1768 incident surfaces:
1] St Patrick himself, as a 16 year-old lad in Britain, was kidnapped and sold into slavery in Ireland, where adversity helped him deepen his Christian Faith. He managed to escape after six or seven years and returned to Ireland decades later as a Missionary Bishop, with such great success that the anniversary of his death, March 17, 493, is Ireland's national day.
2] For instance, it is said that in his second meeting with the assembled pagan chieftains of Erin, he was challenged about the apparent illogicality of the Trinity. He plucked a three-leaf shamrock and began: "Is this one leaf or three? If one leaf, why are there three lobes of equal size? If three leaves, why is there just one stem? If you cannot explain so simple a mystery . . . how can you hope to understand . . . the Holy Trinity?" The Shamrock leaf, of course, has long been a national symbol of both Christian Ireland and Montserrat.
3] Over a thousand years later, the long-since Christianised Irish were under the English boot-heel and repeatedly rose up to try to liberate themselves. (Eventually, after decades of futile debate over Home Rule, the bloodily suppressed 1916 Easter Rebellion led to the creation of the Republic of Ireland, and to the lingering conflict in Northern Ireland.)
4] Many Irish settlers in the Caribbean came as indentured servants, often labouring under slave-like conditions for a period of up to seven years.
5] The Irish settlers in Montserrat came here from St Kitts, to find freedom to practice their Catholic Faith.
How then could men from a Christian nation whose patron saint was an escaped slave, and who themselves longed for liberty, then turn around and cruelly enslave and oppress other men? Why is it that the national day, named after that Patron Saint, has so often become an occasion for drunken revelry?
The answers are as painful as they are simple:
1] Until a dozen Christians -- through the heart-softening impact of the great evangelical awakening then occurring in Britain -- founded the first antislavery society in London in 1787, no-one had dared to challenge slavery as an institution. So, despite Biblical rebukes to oppression, injustice and kidnapping, generally slavery was at most seen as a personal misfortune rather than an inescapably illegitimate institution. And, it would take fifty years for their campaign to triumph in the teeth of bitter, well-funded and clever opposition.
2] The lifestyle of many of the slave-masters of 1768 also speaks loud and clear: men who celebrate the memory of a great Christian Missionary by becoming drunk plainly and sadly know little of the gospel, and live less of it. Indeed, the Britain of that era was so corrupt that William Wilberforce said that many men pretended to be worse than they really were, or they would not have credibility with the leading men of the time. No wonder a major strategic focus of his campaigns against slavery and dozens of other major social ills was "to make goodness fashionable."
In short, while the gospel naturally works to save souls, renew minds, improve lives and transform institutions and communities, it is clear that this is in the teeth of the social implications of sin-darkened understanding, sin-hardened hearts and sin-numbed consciences. And, as (1) the controversies over gambling and (2) the bitterly challenged success of Uganda's common-sense, traditional morality-based ABC strategy to combat HIV/AIDS demonstrate all too plainly, that has major implications for us as we seek to rebuild our nation as a healthy, wholesome, truly democratic, God-fearing community. AMEN
Thursday, March 24, 2005
On HIV/AIDS and the Success of the ABC Strategy:
GE M 05:03:23a
On the Let's Talk programme, we sometimes let remarks stand without direct rebuttal; especially if the programme as a whole provides adequate balance. However, if such remarks are later sliced out of context and presented publicly as the bottom line on the topic, a few balancing words are then quite in order.
Regrettably, such a corrective is plainly now needed on the topic of the Church's morally based stance on the HIV/AIDS global epidemic and on the related success of Uganda's ABC campaign.
First, let us hear Moses on why biblical morality "works":
". . . what does the LORD your God ask of you but to fear the LORD your God, to walk in all his ways, to love him, to serve the LORD your God with all your heart and with all your soul, and to observe the LORD's commands and decrees that I am giving you today for your own good?" [Deut. 10:12 - 13]
So, Heb 13:4 -- "marriage should be honoured by all, and the marriage bed kept pure, for God will judge the adulterer and all the sexually immoral" -- should be seen in that light: our Creator's commands are meant to protect and bless us and our community, so ignoring them can have sadly devastating consequences for us, for our loved ones, and for the wider community.
But, equally, as Jesus pointed out: none of us is without sin, so instead of throwing stones at one another, each of us should ask God to help us take the planks out of our own eyes and reach out a helping or comforting hand. [Jn 7:53 - 8:11, Matt 7:1 - 5.]
Secondly, a recent (and unfortunately flawed) Columbia University study on Uganda may have led some to think that the A and B parts of the ABC strategy don't work in the real world. However, as the Harvard-based AIDS researcher Dr Edward Green observed just a few days ago:
"[condom use] went up in every country in Africa and in several countries condom user levels went higher than Uganda and [HIV/AIDS] infection rates didn't come down, they went up. We know the statement that condoms worked is not true. Then there's another claim: When people die off, prevalence goes down because of death. That's also not true because infection rates and levels of death, however you want to measure them, have gone up higher in other African countries and prevalence hasn't come down . . . . It went down uniformly throughout Uganda." [CT interview Mar 7 05, http://www.christianitytoday.com/ct/2005/110/12.0.html ]
That is, as Dr Green also noted, the best explanation for Uganda's success remains: "Most behavioral change [towards Abstinence and Fidelity] in Uganda was in the latter 1980s and early 1990s . . . . So the incidence rate started going down in the later 1980s and early 1990s and then it's the dynamics of epidemics that even if you don't really do anything after that, prevalence continues to go down for a number of years . . ."
In short, ABC did and does work. And, more specifically, while condoms are significantly (but not perfectly) effective as barriers to the passage of the HIV virus, the Uganda epidemiological evidence shows strongly that the A and B parts are the real keys to its success. So, let us heed the bottom-line lesson for the Caribbean: a balanced ABC strategy is both morally sound and epidemiologically sound. END
GE M 05:03:23a
On the Let's Talk programme, we sometimes let remarks stand without direct rebuttal; especially if the programme as a whole provides adequate balance. However, if such remarks are later sliced out of context and presented publicly as the bottom line on the topic, a few balancing words are then quite in order.
Regrettably, such a corrective is plainly now needed on the topic of the Church's morally based stance on the HIV/AIDS global epidemic and on the related success of Uganda's ABC campaign.
First, let us hear Moses on why biblical morality "works":
". . . what does the LORD your God ask of you but to fear the LORD your God, to walk in all his ways, to love him, to serve the LORD your God with all your heart and with all your soul, and to observe the LORD's commands and decrees that I am giving you today for your own good?" [Deut. 10:12 - 13]
So, Heb 13:4 -- "marriage should be honoured by all, and the marriage bed kept pure, for God will judge the adulterer and all the sexually immoral" -- should be seen in that light: our Creator's commands are meant to protect and bless us and our community, so ignoring them can have sadly devastating consequences for us, for our loved ones, and for the wider community.
But, equally, as Jesus pointed out: none of us is without sin, so instead of throwing stones at one another, each of us should ask God to help us take the planks out of our own eyes and reach out a helping or comforting hand. [Jn 7:53 - 8:11, Matt 7:1 - 5.]
Secondly, a recent (and unfortunately flawed) Columbia University study on Uganda may have led some to think that the A and B parts of the ABC strategy don't work in the real world. However, as the Harvard-based AIDS researcher Dr Edward Green observed just a few days ago:
"[condom use] went up in every country in Africa and in several countries condom user levels went higher than Uganda and [HIV/AIDS] infection rates didn't come down, they went up. We know the statement that condoms worked is not true. Then there's another claim: When people die off, prevalence goes down because of death. That's also not true because infection rates and levels of death, however you want to measure them, have gone up higher in other African countries and prevalence hasn't come down . . . . It went down uniformly throughout Uganda." [CT interview Mar 7 05, http://www.christianitytoday.com/ct/2005/110/12.0.html ]
That is, as Dr Green also noted, the best explanation for Uganda's success remains: "Most behavioral change [towards Abstinence and Fidelity] in Uganda was in the latter 1980s and early 1990s . . . . So the incidence rate started going down in the later 1980s and early 1990s and then it's the dynamics of epidemics that even if you don't really do anything after that, prevalence continues to go down for a number of years . . ."
In short, ABC did and does work. And, more specifically, while condoms are significantly (but not perfectly) effective as barriers to the passage of the HIV virus, the Uganda epidemiological evidence shows strongly that the A and B parts are the real keys to its success. So, let us heed the bottom-line lesson for the Caribbean: a balanced ABC strategy is both morally sound and epidemiologically sound. END
Saturday, March 12, 2005
PS: On Moving on beyond the "blame the churches" debate
GEM March 12, 2005
Regrettably, at the 2000, 2002 and 2004 International AIDS conferences, there was a tendency to blame the churches [and advocates of the ABC approach who stress the importance of morally-driven behaviour change as the key to the HIV crisis] for contributing to the spread of HIV AIDS, to the point where some seminars have deteriorated into mere religion-bashing. This sad and unnecessary development includes a now notorious presentation by Mr Martin Gunter of the Jamaica Red Cross (who was then a member of Jamaica's HIV Advisory Committee and Chairman of the Caribbean Regional AIDS Network, CARAN) at the 2000 Durban, South Africa XIIIth International AIDS Conference.
The resulting rebuttals by University of Technology Lecturer and Communications Consultant Mr Martin Henry and by church leaders are well worth reflecting on, as is Mr Gunter's unfortunately disingenuous response to these well-deserved rebukes.
Unfortunately, too, some of the acrimony of this regional and international debate has now come here; as was manifested by a regrettable ZJB news item presented on the evening of Fri March 11, 2005 which excerpted some rather sharp remarks by a Let's Talk guest panelist on March 2nd that echo Mr Gunter's perspectives. Even more unfortunately, these remarks were reported without reference to the broader context of the programme and the next session on March 9th as discussed above (and to which the station had prior access, including having print and audio copies of Rev. Seale's remarks at the CONECAR, as had been featured in the LT programme on Wed 9th -- one hardly needs to underscore the audience differences between a talk show and the Evening News!).
This sad, and undesirable development underscores the point that it is high time for us to move on beyond the blame game and face what Mr Henry aptly called "[t]he cold truth":
"The cold truth which the AIDS industry, Marvin Gunter, and the rest of us must soberly confront is that, barring a scientific or divine miracle, this most dreadful pandemic is set to run its devastating epidemiological course, which has been already determined by past human choices. If not divine judgement, AIDS certainly is largely a consequence of anti-Christian sexual behaviour . . . . The surest protection for the uninfected individual is chastity and fidelity. Whatever else it may do by way of response to the crisis, the Church, in the teeth of antagonism sharpened by desperation, must preach this loudly and clearly without compromise but with the spirit of compassion and practical care for those already fallen in the manner of Jesus her Head and Exemplar."
Let us heed this call to truth-based, morally sound, compassionate action in the spirit of Jn 7:53 - 8:11. END
GEM March 12, 2005
Regrettably, at the 2000, 2002 and 2004 International AIDS conferences, there was a tendency to blame the churches [and advocates of the ABC approach who stress the importance of morally-driven behaviour change as the key to the HIV crisis] for contributing to the spread of HIV AIDS, to the point where some seminars have deteriorated into mere religion-bashing. This sad and unnecessary development includes a now notorious presentation by Mr Martin Gunter of the Jamaica Red Cross (who was then a member of Jamaica's HIV Advisory Committee and Chairman of the Caribbean Regional AIDS Network, CARAN) at the 2000 Durban, South Africa XIIIth International AIDS Conference.
The resulting rebuttals by University of Technology Lecturer and Communications Consultant Mr Martin Henry and by church leaders are well worth reflecting on, as is Mr Gunter's unfortunately disingenuous response to these well-deserved rebukes.
Unfortunately, too, some of the acrimony of this regional and international debate has now come here; as was manifested by a regrettable ZJB news item presented on the evening of Fri March 11, 2005 which excerpted some rather sharp remarks by a Let's Talk guest panelist on March 2nd that echo Mr Gunter's perspectives. Even more unfortunately, these remarks were reported without reference to the broader context of the programme and the next session on March 9th as discussed above (and to which the station had prior access, including having print and audio copies of Rev. Seale's remarks at the CONECAR, as had been featured in the LT programme on Wed 9th -- one hardly needs to underscore the audience differences between a talk show and the Evening News!).
This sad, and undesirable development underscores the point that it is high time for us to move on beyond the blame game and face what Mr Henry aptly called "[t]he cold truth":
"The cold truth which the AIDS industry, Marvin Gunter, and the rest of us must soberly confront is that, barring a scientific or divine miracle, this most dreadful pandemic is set to run its devastating epidemiological course, which has been already determined by past human choices. If not divine judgement, AIDS certainly is largely a consequence of anti-Christian sexual behaviour . . . . The surest protection for the uninfected individual is chastity and fidelity. Whatever else it may do by way of response to the crisis, the Church, in the teeth of antagonism sharpened by desperation, must preach this loudly and clearly without compromise but with the spirit of compassion and practical care for those already fallen in the manner of Jesus her Head and Exemplar."
Let us heed this call to truth-based, morally sound, compassionate action in the spirit of Jn 7:53 - 8:11. END
Friday, March 11, 2005
The Rebuilding of Montserrat, 7:
Unsafe, SafER, SafEST
GEM 05:03:09a.1
Over the past few weeks, we have been discussing the HIV/AIDS crisis in Montserrat and the wider Caribbean, in light of a recent survey of students in the MSS. This survey reveals that the HIV/AIDS crisis has the potential to decimate a whole generation of our young people, if we continue with "business as usual."
For, it is clear that many of our young people -- and indeed many of our adult population, too -- indulge in very unsafe sexual habits: promiscuity, "unprotected sex"; even sex in exchange for money, favours, or even something as simple as a phone card. Such practices simply invite the spread of HIV/AIDS and the dozens of other devastating sexually transmissible diseases; some of which are almost as worrisome as AIDS -- e.g. Human Papilloma Virus [HPV], which is a leading, strongly suspected cause of cervical cancer. (According to available statistics, this cancer has killed more women in the USA than AIDS has. Moreover, while HPV is so contagious that it is reportedly the commonest STD in the USA, condoms provide little defense against it. HPV is thus very politically incorrect; so it is, by and large, a silent plague.)
Now, last week, Nurses Buffonge and Skerritt kindly helped us to look at the need for safER sexual practices: the use of latex condoms [Ed. note: and of dental dams], which act as barriers to the exchange of body fluids that can carry the HIV virus. We also saw that in Uganda, thanks to a strong intervention by the President and many leaders of that country through their ABC campaign -- Abstinence if single, Being Faithful to one's spouse, using Condoms if one insists on risky behaviour -- they were able to stem the tide of the AIDS epidemic there.
Thus, we can see from the implications of the silent HPV epidemic and the Uganda HIV/AIDS success story just how sound, practical and effective the 2,000 year old biblical principle of safEST sex is:
"Marriage should be honored by all, and the marriage bed kept pure, for God will judge the adulterer and all the sexually immoral." [Heb. 13:4; cf. Matt. 19:3 - 11, Eph. 4:17 - 24, Rom. 13:8 - 10, & Matt. 11:19b.]
So, as we continue to reflect on the HIV/AIDS and broader STD epidemics, we should recognise the direct relevance of an even older (and just as politically incorrect!) biblical principle:
"And now, O Israel, what does the LORD your God ask of you but to fear the LORD your God, to walk in all his ways, to love him, to serve the LORD your God with all your heart and with all your soul, and to observe the LORD's commands and decrees that I am giving you today for your own good?" [Deut. 10:12 - 13]
In short, our Creator has set moral limits on our behaviour for our own good, and the consequences of ignoring these limits can be devastating indeed. Thus, it is no surprise that the rapid spread of dozens of destructive STDs is due to the unhealthy implications of sexual immorality and associated promiscuity and perversion. Having said that, it is equally true that none of us is without guilt, so instead of casting the first stone, let us now consider how we can promote a return to wiser behaviour, and reach out with compassion to the victims of these diseases.
A good place to begin is with some recent remarks by the Rev. Gerry Seale of the Evangelical Association of the Caribbean, made at the Congress of Evangelicals in the Caribbean, which was held last month. In this presentation, Bro Gerry highlights AIDS as the number one emerging issue that the church in the region will have to confront, based on evidence that strongly suggests that sinful, unsafe sexual behaviour is rife across the region, within the churches as well as in the wider community-- so that there are already over half a million victims of HIV/AIDS in our region.
Such trends mean that we will increasingly have to deal with more and more victims of this disease, and will have to break out of the all-too-common sinful attitude of self-righteous condemnation. Instead, we should demonstrate the power of God to overcome bondage to sinful, unsafe sexual habits, and to enable us to reach out compassionately and effectively to our relatives, church members, friends and fellow citizens who have become victims of this latter-day plague.
Plainly, through the wisdom and power of God, we need to move on from unsafe, to safer or -- even better -- safest behaviour; and, we need to reach out in practical love and caring to those who will (or already have) become victims of these deadly diseases. So now, let's talk. AMEN
Unsafe, SafER, SafEST
GEM 05:03:09a.1
Over the past few weeks, we have been discussing the HIV/AIDS crisis in Montserrat and the wider Caribbean, in light of a recent survey of students in the MSS. This survey reveals that the HIV/AIDS crisis has the potential to decimate a whole generation of our young people, if we continue with "business as usual."
For, it is clear that many of our young people -- and indeed many of our adult population, too -- indulge in very unsafe sexual habits: promiscuity, "unprotected sex"; even sex in exchange for money, favours, or even something as simple as a phone card. Such practices simply invite the spread of HIV/AIDS and the dozens of other devastating sexually transmissible diseases; some of which are almost as worrisome as AIDS -- e.g. Human Papilloma Virus [HPV], which is a leading, strongly suspected cause of cervical cancer. (According to available statistics, this cancer has killed more women in the USA than AIDS has. Moreover, while HPV is so contagious that it is reportedly the commonest STD in the USA, condoms provide little defense against it. HPV is thus very politically incorrect; so it is, by and large, a silent plague.)
Now, last week, Nurses Buffonge and Skerritt kindly helped us to look at the need for safER sexual practices: the use of latex condoms [Ed. note: and of dental dams], which act as barriers to the exchange of body fluids that can carry the HIV virus. We also saw that in Uganda, thanks to a strong intervention by the President and many leaders of that country through their ABC campaign -- Abstinence if single, Being Faithful to one's spouse, using Condoms if one insists on risky behaviour -- they were able to stem the tide of the AIDS epidemic there.
Thus, we can see from the implications of the silent HPV epidemic and the Uganda HIV/AIDS success story just how sound, practical and effective the 2,000 year old biblical principle of safEST sex is:
"Marriage should be honored by all, and the marriage bed kept pure, for God will judge the adulterer and all the sexually immoral." [Heb. 13:4; cf. Matt. 19:3 - 11, Eph. 4:17 - 24, Rom. 13:8 - 10, & Matt. 11:19b.]
So, as we continue to reflect on the HIV/AIDS and broader STD epidemics, we should recognise the direct relevance of an even older (and just as politically incorrect!) biblical principle:
"And now, O Israel, what does the LORD your God ask of you but to fear the LORD your God, to walk in all his ways, to love him, to serve the LORD your God with all your heart and with all your soul, and to observe the LORD's commands and decrees that I am giving you today for your own good?" [Deut. 10:12 - 13]
In short, our Creator has set moral limits on our behaviour for our own good, and the consequences of ignoring these limits can be devastating indeed. Thus, it is no surprise that the rapid spread of dozens of destructive STDs is due to the unhealthy implications of sexual immorality and associated promiscuity and perversion. Having said that, it is equally true that none of us is without guilt, so instead of casting the first stone, let us now consider how we can promote a return to wiser behaviour, and reach out with compassion to the victims of these diseases.
A good place to begin is with some recent remarks by the Rev. Gerry Seale of the Evangelical Association of the Caribbean, made at the Congress of Evangelicals in the Caribbean, which was held last month. In this presentation, Bro Gerry highlights AIDS as the number one emerging issue that the church in the region will have to confront, based on evidence that strongly suggests that sinful, unsafe sexual behaviour is rife across the region, within the churches as well as in the wider community-- so that there are already over half a million victims of HIV/AIDS in our region.
Such trends mean that we will increasingly have to deal with more and more victims of this disease, and will have to break out of the all-too-common sinful attitude of self-righteous condemnation. Instead, we should demonstrate the power of God to overcome bondage to sinful, unsafe sexual habits, and to enable us to reach out compassionately and effectively to our relatives, church members, friends and fellow citizens who have become victims of this latter-day plague.
Plainly, through the wisdom and power of God, we need to move on from unsafe, to safer or -- even better -- safest behaviour; and, we need to reach out in practical love and caring to those who will (or already have) become victims of these deadly diseases. So now, let's talk. AMEN
Thursday, February 24, 2005
The Rebuilding of Montserrat, 6:
Rebuilding Productivity
GEM 05:02:23
Economists often talk of the importance of balance between the supply and the demand sides in a healthy economy: production and consumption.
For, plainly, goods and services have to be produced and paid for if they are to be consumed. In turn, this requires savings and investment to maintain and further build the productive base of the economy so that we can enjoy a better standard of living in the future. Also, as the sad contrast of Jamaica and Barbados over the past forty years or so clearly shows: if an economy is heavily dependent on imports to sustain a desirable level of consumption, in the end it has to produce and sell an abundance of desirable and globally competitive exportable goods and services; in a stable, law-abiding community.
So, as we look to the rebuilding of Montserrat, this two-sided view highlights a major (and, indeed, longstanding) challenge. For, while we indeed currently enjoy the benefits of a relatively comfortable level of consumption, agriculture, industry and value-added services clearly lag behind. As a direct consequence, over the past several years, it has been UK Government transfers, a few high profile -- and volatile -- investments, aid money and/or remittances that have been largely driving the local economy. (In witness of this, the injection of ash-cleaning money made a big difference since 2003, and when it tailed off about a year ago, the drying up effect was also just as evident.)
This brings several current issues to focus:
1] The major industry in which the Caribbean is currently globally competitive is Tourism, which accounts for perhaps 25% of employment and national income across the region. In our case, we have a drive-in active volcano as a major potential attraction, but we currently lack the major infrastructure to support a sustainable tourism sector. Thus, the importance of the ongoing development of our air- and sea- ports and the Little Bay Newtown.
2] Traditionally, Agriculture has been the backbone of the region’s economies, however this has in many cases now sunk to less than 10% of the economy. Opportunities in this industry now seem to lie in specialist niches with high-value products that can be produced efficiently on a relatively small scale. For instance, we could try neutraceuticals (such as herbal medicines) and foods that are certified as organically grown. Sea Island cotton, perhaps, is another possibility.
3] Similarly, Information and Communication Technologies [ICTs] and a cluster of related cultural and artistic creative services materials have unlimited potential, and require more of brainpower, creativity and skill than of capital equipment. The success of Arrow, the Leas, and others shows some of what can be done.
4] There are many other possibilities, but for them to work out, we need to develop a body of effective entrepreneurs, backed up by astutely targetted financing and facility and management support services. For this, the Business Incubator concept is a tested strategy that has a global track record of improving the five-year survival rate for new small businesses from a dismal 20 - 25% to in excess of 80%.
5] Most of all, we need a skilled, healthy, motivated workforce and a functioning community if we are to create and sustain such industries. Thus, we see the critical importance of education (especially the new community college), independent and transparent media, effective governance and community-based institutions. That in turn requires that we need to work hard on our community-based organisations and government sectors.
We could go on with the list, but the above is enough to show that we need more than merely an injection of infrastructure through the creation of improved ports and a Newtown. Further development of the Community College (perhaps integrating it with a Business incubator that embeds a financing facility) may help. Improvements in governance, transparency and the media may be helpful. So would be the creation of a subscription-based community development foundation that could catalyse community-based initiatives.
But in the end, the key issue is spiritual: are we (as individuals, families, staffs and communities) willing work together under God, to make the sustained, diligent changes of heart, life- and work- styles that will be required for efforts such as the above to succeed? For, except the Lord builds the house, we work in vain.
So, now, let’s talk . . . AMEN
Rebuilding Productivity
GEM 05:02:23
Economists often talk of the importance of balance between the supply and the demand sides in a healthy economy: production and consumption.
For, plainly, goods and services have to be produced and paid for if they are to be consumed. In turn, this requires savings and investment to maintain and further build the productive base of the economy so that we can enjoy a better standard of living in the future. Also, as the sad contrast of Jamaica and Barbados over the past forty years or so clearly shows: if an economy is heavily dependent on imports to sustain a desirable level of consumption, in the end it has to produce and sell an abundance of desirable and globally competitive exportable goods and services; in a stable, law-abiding community.
So, as we look to the rebuilding of Montserrat, this two-sided view highlights a major (and, indeed, longstanding) challenge. For, while we indeed currently enjoy the benefits of a relatively comfortable level of consumption, agriculture, industry and value-added services clearly lag behind. As a direct consequence, over the past several years, it has been UK Government transfers, a few high profile -- and volatile -- investments, aid money and/or remittances that have been largely driving the local economy. (In witness of this, the injection of ash-cleaning money made a big difference since 2003, and when it tailed off about a year ago, the drying up effect was also just as evident.)
This brings several current issues to focus:
1] The major industry in which the Caribbean is currently globally competitive is Tourism, which accounts for perhaps 25% of employment and national income across the region. In our case, we have a drive-in active volcano as a major potential attraction, but we currently lack the major infrastructure to support a sustainable tourism sector. Thus, the importance of the ongoing development of our air- and sea- ports and the Little Bay Newtown.
2] Traditionally, Agriculture has been the backbone of the region’s economies, however this has in many cases now sunk to less than 10% of the economy. Opportunities in this industry now seem to lie in specialist niches with high-value products that can be produced efficiently on a relatively small scale. For instance, we could try neutraceuticals (such as herbal medicines) and foods that are certified as organically grown. Sea Island cotton, perhaps, is another possibility.
3] Similarly, Information and Communication Technologies [ICTs] and a cluster of related cultural and artistic creative services materials have unlimited potential, and require more of brainpower, creativity and skill than of capital equipment. The success of Arrow, the Leas, and others shows some of what can be done.
4] There are many other possibilities, but for them to work out, we need to develop a body of effective entrepreneurs, backed up by astutely targetted financing and facility and management support services. For this, the Business Incubator concept is a tested strategy that has a global track record of improving the five-year survival rate for new small businesses from a dismal 20 - 25% to in excess of 80%.
5] Most of all, we need a skilled, healthy, motivated workforce and a functioning community if we are to create and sustain such industries. Thus, we see the critical importance of education (especially the new community college), independent and transparent media, effective governance and community-based institutions. That in turn requires that we need to work hard on our community-based organisations and government sectors.
We could go on with the list, but the above is enough to show that we need more than merely an injection of infrastructure through the creation of improved ports and a Newtown. Further development of the Community College (perhaps integrating it with a Business incubator that embeds a financing facility) may help. Improvements in governance, transparency and the media may be helpful. So would be the creation of a subscription-based community development foundation that could catalyse community-based initiatives.
But in the end, the key issue is spiritual: are we (as individuals, families, staffs and communities) willing work together under God, to make the sustained, diligent changes of heart, life- and work- styles that will be required for efforts such as the above to succeed? For, except the Lord builds the house, we work in vain.
So, now, let’s talk . . . AMEN
Thursday, February 10, 2005
The Rebuilding of Montserrat, 5:
A Social HIV Vaccination
GEM 05:02:09a
The December 3, 2004 Montserrat Reporter led with a chilling headline: "Survey Reports 70% of MSS Girls Sexually Active." Now, while this headline is a bit sensationalist -- the body of the story simply says that the Ministry’s survey actually showed that the 70 % relates to the students as a whole -- we have to reckon with the implications of such statistics in an era of rampant HIV/AIDS.
For, if the statistics are even approximately true, we could easily lose a generation of promising young people to AIDS within a decade, the time AIDS can take to incubate.
Why? Because condoms are significantly less than 100% effective (if and when they are actually used), so habitual risky sexual behaviour tied to a false sense of security can actually worsen one’s chance of exposure to HIV infection. For instance: UN and other studies concede that these thin rubber sheaths fail in use, for one reason or another, some 10% of the time. [Cf. Hearst, Norman et al, "Condoms," in AIDS Policy and Law, Vol. 18 No. 13, (July 22, 2003); also, cf. Weller and Davis, "Condom effectiveness in Reducing Heterosexual HIV Transmission," Cochrane Review, No. 1 (2003).] So, basic probability theory tells us that if such condoms are used ten times, the chance of one being protected all ten times is actually only 35%: 90% of 90% of 90%, ten times over. (That chance is more or less the same as that for a really high-risk version of Russian Roulette: loading four rounds into the chambers of a six-shot revolver, spinning, cocking the hammer and pulling the trigger; while hoping to hear "click." Would you willingly make such a gamble with your life?)
Thus, it is no surprise to see that the only really remarkable AIDS success story, Uganda, is based on the ABC strategy: (1) abstinence till marriage, (2) being faithful to one’s spouse, and only after those, (3) condoms. As someone sums up, big-A, big-B, small-c. As a recent Heritage Foundation report on Uganda’s success story sums up:
"President Yoweri Museveni came to office in 1986 and quickly launched a frank and sobering education campaign about the deadliness of the disease and the hazards of irresponsible sex. It offered three clear options for avoiding death from AIDS: The emphasis for the majority population was on monogamy. The emphasis for youth was on abstinence. Condoms were offered as a last resort, mostly for high-risk groups. The message was delivered from middle-school classrooms to churches to community seminars and in radio, print, and television broadcasts . . . The effect was to create what researchers call a "social vaccine" against HIV: a set of cultural values that encouraged more responsible sexual attitudes and behaviors . . . . What happened in Uganda is that a lot of forces at one time were promoting more responsible sexual behavior, so you get to a social norm, a tipping point kind of thing. At some point all these messages, plus seeing more people dying, get people to change their sexual behavior." [ Loconte, J. http://www.heritage.org/Research/Africa/BG1692.cfm ]
Let’s pause: the Ugandan ABC strategy has shown how to get a great many people to become more sexually responsible. In their case, that has reduced their -- catastrophic -- AIDS infection rates from 15% in 1991 to a current rate of 6% and falling. Nor is that just a matter of dying-off of victims: the successes include achieving significantly higher abstinence rates and delayed sexual initiation among the crucial 15 -19 year old secondary school age group. So, then, why is it that so many of the AIDS prevention efforts in the Caribbean so often seem to be "C-heavy" or even "C-only"? Will it take a sharply mounting death rate from AIDS to wake us up in Montserrat and the wider Caribbean?
Moreover, the Uganda case highlights that collaboration between the health authorities and the church can make a big difference to success in AIDS prevention, so the finger-pointing that sometimes pops up between AIDS activists and church leaders in our region is clearly counter-productive.
Finally, it is time to be frank: the MSS student statistics are also a challenge to our churches and our SDP Vision Statement’s claim that we are a God-fearing society. For, while over eighty percent of our population identifies with the churches, which teach us to "flee fornication" and to "honour marriage," the high incidences of early sexual activity and of out of wedlock births tells us that the Biblical teaching on family life and morality simply has not hit home in our own community – and, indeed, all across the Caribbean. Why is that so, and why in the teeth of twenty years of knowing that promiscuity is a major risk factor for deadly HIV infection – for which there is simply no cure?
Plainly, it is time for us to think again, to repent, and to find a better way to deal with AIDS, and also with sexual ethics, family life and Christian discipleship. The lives and souls of a whole generation are at stake.
So, now, let’s talk . . . AMEN
A Social HIV Vaccination
GEM 05:02:09a
The December 3, 2004 Montserrat Reporter led with a chilling headline: "Survey Reports 70% of MSS Girls Sexually Active." Now, while this headline is a bit sensationalist -- the body of the story simply says that the Ministry’s survey actually showed that the 70 % relates to the students as a whole -- we have to reckon with the implications of such statistics in an era of rampant HIV/AIDS.
For, if the statistics are even approximately true, we could easily lose a generation of promising young people to AIDS within a decade, the time AIDS can take to incubate.
Why? Because condoms are significantly less than 100% effective (if and when they are actually used), so habitual risky sexual behaviour tied to a false sense of security can actually worsen one’s chance of exposure to HIV infection. For instance: UN and other studies concede that these thin rubber sheaths fail in use, for one reason or another, some 10% of the time. [Cf. Hearst, Norman et al, "Condoms," in AIDS Policy and Law, Vol. 18 No. 13, (July 22, 2003); also, cf. Weller and Davis, "Condom effectiveness in Reducing Heterosexual HIV Transmission," Cochrane Review, No. 1 (2003).] So, basic probability theory tells us that if such condoms are used ten times, the chance of one being protected all ten times is actually only 35%: 90% of 90% of 90%, ten times over. (That chance is more or less the same as that for a really high-risk version of Russian Roulette: loading four rounds into the chambers of a six-shot revolver, spinning, cocking the hammer and pulling the trigger; while hoping to hear "click." Would you willingly make such a gamble with your life?)
Thus, it is no surprise to see that the only really remarkable AIDS success story, Uganda, is based on the ABC strategy: (1) abstinence till marriage, (2) being faithful to one’s spouse, and only after those, (3) condoms. As someone sums up, big-A, big-B, small-c. As a recent Heritage Foundation report on Uganda’s success story sums up:
"President Yoweri Museveni came to office in 1986 and quickly launched a frank and sobering education campaign about the deadliness of the disease and the hazards of irresponsible sex. It offered three clear options for avoiding death from AIDS: The emphasis for the majority population was on monogamy. The emphasis for youth was on abstinence. Condoms were offered as a last resort, mostly for high-risk groups. The message was delivered from middle-school classrooms to churches to community seminars and in radio, print, and television broadcasts . . . The effect was to create what researchers call a "social vaccine" against HIV: a set of cultural values that encouraged more responsible sexual attitudes and behaviors . . . . What happened in Uganda is that a lot of forces at one time were promoting more responsible sexual behavior, so you get to a social norm, a tipping point kind of thing. At some point all these messages, plus seeing more people dying, get people to change their sexual behavior." [ Loconte, J. http://www.heritage.org/Research/Africa/BG1692.cfm ]
Let’s pause: the Ugandan ABC strategy has shown how to get a great many people to become more sexually responsible. In their case, that has reduced their -- catastrophic -- AIDS infection rates from 15% in 1991 to a current rate of 6% and falling. Nor is that just a matter of dying-off of victims: the successes include achieving significantly higher abstinence rates and delayed sexual initiation among the crucial 15 -19 year old secondary school age group. So, then, why is it that so many of the AIDS prevention efforts in the Caribbean so often seem to be "C-heavy" or even "C-only"? Will it take a sharply mounting death rate from AIDS to wake us up in Montserrat and the wider Caribbean?
Moreover, the Uganda case highlights that collaboration between the health authorities and the church can make a big difference to success in AIDS prevention, so the finger-pointing that sometimes pops up between AIDS activists and church leaders in our region is clearly counter-productive.
Finally, it is time to be frank: the MSS student statistics are also a challenge to our churches and our SDP Vision Statement’s claim that we are a God-fearing society. For, while over eighty percent of our population identifies with the churches, which teach us to "flee fornication" and to "honour marriage," the high incidences of early sexual activity and of out of wedlock births tells us that the Biblical teaching on family life and morality simply has not hit home in our own community – and, indeed, all across the Caribbean. Why is that so, and why in the teeth of twenty years of knowing that promiscuity is a major risk factor for deadly HIV infection – for which there is simply no cure?
Plainly, it is time for us to think again, to repent, and to find a better way to deal with AIDS, and also with sexual ethics, family life and Christian discipleship. The lives and souls of a whole generation are at stake.
So, now, let’s talk . . . AMEN
Wednesday, January 26, 2005
A NOTE: last week, the Let's Talk radio programme broke the news in Montserrat that Winair, the carrier chosen to have the temporary monopoly on the new airstrip has been in serious financial woes, indeed had gone bankrupt and was being reorganised. Monday afternoon, we learned thast this Wed., the Let's Talk slot will be pre-empted by a Government broadcast on the status of the airport project. We encourage our listeners and readers to participate. In the meanwhile, here is the text for a speech to the Montserrat Tour and Taxi Association.
The Montserrat Tour & Taxi Association:
The "logistics" of tourism
GEM 05:01:17a
Madam President, Members, etc.:
INTRO: I have been asked to briefly discuss the "logistics" of tourism in Montserrat, with a special view to potential opportunities facing tour and taxi operators. This of course comes in the context of (1) the opportunities presented by the ongoing volcano eruption, as the only live volcano in the premier cruise tourism destination, the Caribbean, and (2) the proposed Little Bay port and town development project. Thus, our discussion tonight naturally needs to engage: (a) the raw potential for a substantial cruise ship tourism market, (b) the required infrastructure developments to facilitate the market, (c) the promotion and affordability concerns, and (d) resulting opportunities and challenges for tour and taxi operators. So, now, let us proceed.
A] BACKGROUND: Tourism and travel, together, are the biggest export industry – and the fastest growing economic sector -- in the world. For instance, according to the World Tourism Organisation, in 2000, 698 million people visited a foreign country, spending US$ 478 billions, or US$ 685 per tourist, "making tourism the world's number one export earner, ahead of automotive products, chemicals, petroleum and food," while employing some 7% of the global workforce.
Here in the Caribbean, the World Travel and Tourism Council reports that "[I]n 1998,direct and indirect GDP [Gross Domestic Product, roughly speaking: how much was earned by all the people in a country in a given year] from travel and tourism was over US$28 billion, accounting for about 25 percent of the region’s total GDP . . . and is expected to reach over US$48 billion by 2005 (WTTC and WEFA 1999)." Consequently, "travel and tourism provided over 2.9 million jobs in 1998 (more than 25 percent of total employment); this number is expected to grow to over 3.3 million (27 percent of total) by 2005." For instance, in 1997, 18.8 million tourists visited us (mostly from North America and Europe), and spent US$ 861/visit, or ~ US$ 16 billions. (These trends continued into the early 2000’s, with a temporary dip due to the 9/11 attacks and the associated global recession. But now, growth is back on track and by 2006/7 the number of tourists visiting the region could climb to over 25 millions. 4.5% is a reasonable estimate for growth of the industry over the decade.)
In short, the region is roughly four times as dependent on tourism and travel than the "average" for the world, and creates about ¼ of its annual income from this industry. We are now a tourism region, not an agriculture region. No wonder, then, that the Caribbean Tourism organisation reports that "Most of the countries [in the region] with relatively high per
capita GDP have a high percentage (more than 30 percent) of GDP derived from [tourism]."
Cruise ship tourism is an increasingly important part of the region’s tourism product, so let us now turn to it.
B] CRUISE SHIP TOURISM: It can be argued that cruise ships are a significant competition to our region’s hotels, and significantly contribute to environmental challenges. But, this sector is increasingly important to our region: So, by 1998, "71 cruise ships (which can carry over 93,000 passengers) from 24 lines plied the Caribbean, some year-round and some seasonally," and of nearly 9 million cruise ship tourists worldwide in 1999, over 3.8 millions cruised in the Caribbean, which is close to North America and therefore fits in well with the short vacation cruise model favoured by this emerging mass market.
A measure of our market potential is the fact that, even with 6.5 – 7 million passengers per year in 1999 – 2000, "only 11% of North Americans have ever set sail and cruising [had attracted] only 2% of the entire leisure travel industry." In short, there is "an extraordinary growth potential for this industry."
Other Caribbean countries have been quick to take advantage of this opportunity. For instance, a recent report observes: "[w]hen banana farming fell off in the late 1990s, the government of St. Lucia began creating incentives to push its tourism and banking sectors. Today agriculture represents only 7.9 percent of the gross domestic product, while services account for 72.5 percent and industry 19.6 percent . . . . Close to 380 cruise ships make port calls each year and account for 60 percent of tourist arrivals [and though] cruise passengers tend to spend small amounts of time [< 1 day] and money [~US $ 50] during visits, statistics reveal that they are likely to return for a longer vacation."
This reflects a trend where up to the 1970’s, a 20,000 ton, 800 passenger boat was a big one; then in the early 1980’s this moved to 70,000 ton, 2,0000 passenger vessels, until now, the latest class of 138,000 ton ships launched by Royal Caribbean Lines exceeds 1,000 feet in length, and has space for 3,000+ passengers and nearly 2,000 crew.
These factors, coupled to Montserrat’s unique situation of having a live volcanic eruption "in progress," suggest:
C] A SIGNIFICANT MARKET OPPORTUNITY: While the volcano crisis has brought us much dislocation, it has also opened the door for a significant nature-in-action tourism opportunity. Obviously, with a 600 metre, "temporary" air strip, that opportunity has to focus on cruise shipping; so, we need to focus on the development proposals for Little Bay.
These proposals have raised several possibilities: a marina – we are roughly half way between the Virgin Islands and the Grenadines – as well as a Cricket complex, a Cultural Complex [currently under construction], a housing development, some handy shopping arcades, and a Container Port and a Cruise-ship-ready pier, with a facility for tour buses and taxis. It is projected that up to 100,000 visitors per year could be accommodated: ambitious but not impossible, given the numbers already achieved by St Lucia and the underlying market potential and trends.
What would such numbers mean?
100,000 visitors per year is 2,000 per week, what one large vessel or several smaller ones would carry. Thus, we might be looking at 2 – 3 cruise ships per week, and maybe up to 600 – 800 passengers [and it may be a good idea here to embed the price of a volcano island tour into the cruise package!]. That would reasonably require 20 to 30 or even 40 tour buses, depending on capacity. 30 such buses would in turn require 30 round trips on our main road (all at nearly the same time), and our visitors centres and points of interest would also need to be able to accommodate that many busloads of tourists at once. This also holds for HM Immigration and Customs.
These amount to a tall order, so now, let us consider:
D] OPPORTUNITIES, CHALLENGES & CONCERNS: Clearly, 100,000 cruise ship visitors per year constitutes a feasible but challenging target. But, to begin to access it, we will need to have a Cruise Ship pier capable of accommodating the ships that would carry the tourists. (I am informed that such a pier, too, could facilitate roll-on, roll-off container cargo – especially if there are designated cargo and cruise days; but, we should note that in many islands, such as Antigua, the two types of facilities are kept separate.)
Similarly, we would have to invest in developing and promoting the Volcano Park and other activity and interest sites that would be capable of absorbing the associated numbers – and at prices that are competitive, given the point that cruise ship visitors probably will not spend more than US$ 50 - 100 out of pocket in any one port. Further, the resulting market should have reasonably expected returns on the investment that will have to be attractive relative to their degree of risk.
But, given the trends in the world and region, we have to think seriously about them: for the foreseeable future, tourism is the Caribbean’s number one industry, and we need to be a credible player in it. And, Little Bay is plainly the key alternative to beat if we are to our be able to enter that market. So, let us conclude with some pointed questions:
If not now, then when will we begin to develop a credible tourism sector?
If it is not to be based in Little Bay, then where – and, why?
If not us, then who?
So, now, let’s talk . . .
END
The Montserrat Tour & Taxi Association:
The "logistics" of tourism
GEM 05:01:17a
Madam President, Members, etc.:
INTRO: I have been asked to briefly discuss the "logistics" of tourism in Montserrat, with a special view to potential opportunities facing tour and taxi operators. This of course comes in the context of (1) the opportunities presented by the ongoing volcano eruption, as the only live volcano in the premier cruise tourism destination, the Caribbean, and (2) the proposed Little Bay port and town development project. Thus, our discussion tonight naturally needs to engage: (a) the raw potential for a substantial cruise ship tourism market, (b) the required infrastructure developments to facilitate the market, (c) the promotion and affordability concerns, and (d) resulting opportunities and challenges for tour and taxi operators. So, now, let us proceed.
A] BACKGROUND: Tourism and travel, together, are the biggest export industry – and the fastest growing economic sector -- in the world. For instance, according to the World Tourism Organisation, in 2000, 698 million people visited a foreign country, spending US$ 478 billions, or US$ 685 per tourist, "making tourism the world's number one export earner, ahead of automotive products, chemicals, petroleum and food," while employing some 7% of the global workforce.
Here in the Caribbean, the World Travel and Tourism Council reports that "[I]n 1998,direct and indirect GDP [Gross Domestic Product, roughly speaking: how much was earned by all the people in a country in a given year] from travel and tourism was over US$28 billion, accounting for about 25 percent of the region’s total GDP . . . and is expected to reach over US$48 billion by 2005 (WTTC and WEFA 1999)." Consequently, "travel and tourism provided over 2.9 million jobs in 1998 (more than 25 percent of total employment); this number is expected to grow to over 3.3 million (27 percent of total) by 2005." For instance, in 1997, 18.8 million tourists visited us (mostly from North America and Europe), and spent US$ 861/visit, or ~ US$ 16 billions. (These trends continued into the early 2000’s, with a temporary dip due to the 9/11 attacks and the associated global recession. But now, growth is back on track and by 2006/7 the number of tourists visiting the region could climb to over 25 millions. 4.5% is a reasonable estimate for growth of the industry over the decade.)
In short, the region is roughly four times as dependent on tourism and travel than the "average" for the world, and creates about ¼ of its annual income from this industry. We are now a tourism region, not an agriculture region. No wonder, then, that the Caribbean Tourism organisation reports that "Most of the countries [in the region] with relatively high per
capita GDP have a high percentage (more than 30 percent) of GDP derived from [tourism]."
Cruise ship tourism is an increasingly important part of the region’s tourism product, so let us now turn to it.
B] CRUISE SHIP TOURISM: It can be argued that cruise ships are a significant competition to our region’s hotels, and significantly contribute to environmental challenges. But, this sector is increasingly important to our region: So, by 1998, "71 cruise ships (which can carry over 93,000 passengers) from 24 lines plied the Caribbean, some year-round and some seasonally," and of nearly 9 million cruise ship tourists worldwide in 1999, over 3.8 millions cruised in the Caribbean, which is close to North America and therefore fits in well with the short vacation cruise model favoured by this emerging mass market.
A measure of our market potential is the fact that, even with 6.5 – 7 million passengers per year in 1999 – 2000, "only 11% of North Americans have ever set sail and cruising [had attracted] only 2% of the entire leisure travel industry." In short, there is "an extraordinary growth potential for this industry."
Other Caribbean countries have been quick to take advantage of this opportunity. For instance, a recent report observes: "[w]hen banana farming fell off in the late 1990s, the government of St. Lucia began creating incentives to push its tourism and banking sectors. Today agriculture represents only 7.9 percent of the gross domestic product, while services account for 72.5 percent and industry 19.6 percent . . . . Close to 380 cruise ships make port calls each year and account for 60 percent of tourist arrivals [and though] cruise passengers tend to spend small amounts of time [< 1 day] and money [~US $ 50] during visits, statistics reveal that they are likely to return for a longer vacation."
This reflects a trend where up to the 1970’s, a 20,000 ton, 800 passenger boat was a big one; then in the early 1980’s this moved to 70,000 ton, 2,0000 passenger vessels, until now, the latest class of 138,000 ton ships launched by Royal Caribbean Lines exceeds 1,000 feet in length, and has space for 3,000+ passengers and nearly 2,000 crew.
These factors, coupled to Montserrat’s unique situation of having a live volcanic eruption "in progress," suggest:
C] A SIGNIFICANT MARKET OPPORTUNITY: While the volcano crisis has brought us much dislocation, it has also opened the door for a significant nature-in-action tourism opportunity. Obviously, with a 600 metre, "temporary" air strip, that opportunity has to focus on cruise shipping; so, we need to focus on the development proposals for Little Bay.
These proposals have raised several possibilities: a marina – we are roughly half way between the Virgin Islands and the Grenadines – as well as a Cricket complex, a Cultural Complex [currently under construction], a housing development, some handy shopping arcades, and a Container Port and a Cruise-ship-ready pier, with a facility for tour buses and taxis. It is projected that up to 100,000 visitors per year could be accommodated: ambitious but not impossible, given the numbers already achieved by St Lucia and the underlying market potential and trends.
What would such numbers mean?
100,000 visitors per year is 2,000 per week, what one large vessel or several smaller ones would carry. Thus, we might be looking at 2 – 3 cruise ships per week, and maybe up to 600 – 800 passengers [and it may be a good idea here to embed the price of a volcano island tour into the cruise package!]. That would reasonably require 20 to 30 or even 40 tour buses, depending on capacity. 30 such buses would in turn require 30 round trips on our main road (all at nearly the same time), and our visitors centres and points of interest would also need to be able to accommodate that many busloads of tourists at once. This also holds for HM Immigration and Customs.
These amount to a tall order, so now, let us consider:
D] OPPORTUNITIES, CHALLENGES & CONCERNS: Clearly, 100,000 cruise ship visitors per year constitutes a feasible but challenging target. But, to begin to access it, we will need to have a Cruise Ship pier capable of accommodating the ships that would carry the tourists. (I am informed that such a pier, too, could facilitate roll-on, roll-off container cargo – especially if there are designated cargo and cruise days; but, we should note that in many islands, such as Antigua, the two types of facilities are kept separate.)
Similarly, we would have to invest in developing and promoting the Volcano Park and other activity and interest sites that would be capable of absorbing the associated numbers – and at prices that are competitive, given the point that cruise ship visitors probably will not spend more than US$ 50 - 100 out of pocket in any one port. Further, the resulting market should have reasonably expected returns on the investment that will have to be attractive relative to their degree of risk.
But, given the trends in the world and region, we have to think seriously about them: for the foreseeable future, tourism is the Caribbean’s number one industry, and we need to be a credible player in it. And, Little Bay is plainly the key alternative to beat if we are to our be able to enter that market. So, let us conclude with some pointed questions:
If not now, then when will we begin to develop a credible tourism sector?
If it is not to be based in Little Bay, then where – and, why?
If not us, then who?
So, now, let’s talk . . .
END
Wednesday, January 19, 2005
The Rebuilding of Montserrat, 4:
Except the Lord Build the House . . .
GEM 05:01:17
The key lesson of the past decade – a nightmarish time in which we have struggled in the face of the ongoing volcanic crisis, the loss of much of our territory and infrastructure, de-population, fear and denial of painful reality, lack of consensus and vision, economic slowdown, and a devastating breakdown of morals and community spirit in high places as well as low – is that the time for "business as [nearly] usual" is over.
So, where can we turn, to find a truly sustainable development path?
Psalm 127:1 answers: "Except the LORD build the house, they labour in vain that build it . . ." For, our national rebuilding challenge is not only a matter of physical devastation and resulting dislocation, but it is also a spiritual crisis, one that reflects the wider moral disintegration and intellectual bankruptcy of Western culture; which has spurned the God of the Bible over the past hundred years, only to end up so confused that it is no longer confident that truth or right are anything more than mere rhetorical fantasies created by deceptive power elites.
Montserrat is not immune to this decay. That is the clear lesson of: (1) the recent revelation that 70% of our secondary school children are sexually active [in the age of the global HIV pandemic!], (2) the strong insistence in some quarters on the plainly immoral proposal to try to base our economic future on gambling, and (3) the looming tidal wave of scandals over reported mis-management of various rebuilding projects.
Paul is ever so relevant: "the Gentiles . . . are darkened in their understanding and separated from the life of God because of the ignorance that is in them due to the hardening of their hearts Having lost all [moral] sensitivity, they have given themselves over to sensuality so as to indulge in every kind of impurity, with a continual lust for more. You, however, did not come to know Christ that way . . . You were taught, with regard to your former way of life, to put off your old self, which is being corrupted by its deceitful desires; to be made new in the attitude of your minds; and to put on the new self, created to be like God in true righteousness and holiness." [Eph 4:17 – 24.]
How, then, can we find a way to rebuild Montserrat under God’s blessing?
Nehemiah -- God’s rebuilder -- provides a time-tested answer, through a classic management case study that teaches us how to restore a nation in the teeth of daunting challenges and determined, unscrupulous opposition:
1] Learning of the broken down walls of Jerusalem, he was concerned. So he penitently prayed then tactfully approached a key powerbroker, the king of Persia. Thus, Nehemiah obtained backing and necessary resources before opponents could block the effort. [Ch 1.]
2] In Jerusalem, he quietly surveyed the wall then called the people and their leaders together in a solemn assembly, giving them hope and a vision: let us arise and build! [Ch 2.]
He then organised the project, delegating manageable tasks to specific groups and their leaders. [Ch 3.]
3] As the project went on, challenges, opposition, threats, slanders and crises arose; but Nehemiah could safely stand on his strengths and so he handled the crises, and attacks firmly -- while making sure he was not distracted from the main task in hand. [Chs 4 - 6.]
When the wall-rebuilding project was finished -- in 52 days! -- time was set apart for celebration and worship, with the help of Ezra, a recognised and respected spiritual leader. Revival broke out. [Ch 6:15 - 7:5, 8:1- 11, & 8:13 - 9:38.]
4] The project and initial wave of revival then triggered waves of national renewal, empowerment, reformation, transformation and liberation that continued for centuries. [Chs 8 - 13.]
Here in Montserrat, we too need to pause and pray, repenting of our sins and seeking wisdom and opportunities for God-blessed rebuilding. So, let us come together as a people in times of prayer, solemn assembly and consultation before God. Then, we can host a forum on the future to identify a cluster of key projects that can serve as a beginning for rebuilding not only our infrastructure and institutions, but also our community. Then, we can create a broad, community-based NGO to coordinate the projects. And, as we undertake the initial wave of projects, we will build capacity, community and confidence that open the door to even greater successes to follow.
So, let us ask: "why not now, why not here, why not us?" AMEN
Except the Lord Build the House . . .
GEM 05:01:17
The key lesson of the past decade – a nightmarish time in which we have struggled in the face of the ongoing volcanic crisis, the loss of much of our territory and infrastructure, de-population, fear and denial of painful reality, lack of consensus and vision, economic slowdown, and a devastating breakdown of morals and community spirit in high places as well as low – is that the time for "business as [nearly] usual" is over.
So, where can we turn, to find a truly sustainable development path?
Psalm 127:1 answers: "Except the LORD build the house, they labour in vain that build it . . ." For, our national rebuilding challenge is not only a matter of physical devastation and resulting dislocation, but it is also a spiritual crisis, one that reflects the wider moral disintegration and intellectual bankruptcy of Western culture; which has spurned the God of the Bible over the past hundred years, only to end up so confused that it is no longer confident that truth or right are anything more than mere rhetorical fantasies created by deceptive power elites.
Montserrat is not immune to this decay. That is the clear lesson of: (1) the recent revelation that 70% of our secondary school children are sexually active [in the age of the global HIV pandemic!], (2) the strong insistence in some quarters on the plainly immoral proposal to try to base our economic future on gambling, and (3) the looming tidal wave of scandals over reported mis-management of various rebuilding projects.
Paul is ever so relevant: "the Gentiles . . . are darkened in their understanding and separated from the life of God because of the ignorance that is in them due to the hardening of their hearts Having lost all [moral] sensitivity, they have given themselves over to sensuality so as to indulge in every kind of impurity, with a continual lust for more. You, however, did not come to know Christ that way . . . You were taught, with regard to your former way of life, to put off your old self, which is being corrupted by its deceitful desires; to be made new in the attitude of your minds; and to put on the new self, created to be like God in true righteousness and holiness." [Eph 4:17 – 24.]
How, then, can we find a way to rebuild Montserrat under God’s blessing?
Nehemiah -- God’s rebuilder -- provides a time-tested answer, through a classic management case study that teaches us how to restore a nation in the teeth of daunting challenges and determined, unscrupulous opposition:
1] Learning of the broken down walls of Jerusalem, he was concerned. So he penitently prayed then tactfully approached a key powerbroker, the king of Persia. Thus, Nehemiah obtained backing and necessary resources before opponents could block the effort. [Ch 1.]
2] In Jerusalem, he quietly surveyed the wall then called the people and their leaders together in a solemn assembly, giving them hope and a vision: let us arise and build! [Ch 2.]
He then organised the project, delegating manageable tasks to specific groups and their leaders. [Ch 3.]
3] As the project went on, challenges, opposition, threats, slanders and crises arose; but Nehemiah could safely stand on his strengths and so he handled the crises, and attacks firmly -- while making sure he was not distracted from the main task in hand. [Chs 4 - 6.]
When the wall-rebuilding project was finished -- in 52 days! -- time was set apart for celebration and worship, with the help of Ezra, a recognised and respected spiritual leader. Revival broke out. [Ch 6:15 - 7:5, 8:1- 11, & 8:13 - 9:38.]
4] The project and initial wave of revival then triggered waves of national renewal, empowerment, reformation, transformation and liberation that continued for centuries. [Chs 8 - 13.]
Here in Montserrat, we too need to pause and pray, repenting of our sins and seeking wisdom and opportunities for God-blessed rebuilding. So, let us come together as a people in times of prayer, solemn assembly and consultation before God. Then, we can host a forum on the future to identify a cluster of key projects that can serve as a beginning for rebuilding not only our infrastructure and institutions, but also our community. Then, we can create a broad, community-based NGO to coordinate the projects. And, as we undertake the initial wave of projects, we will build capacity, community and confidence that open the door to even greater successes to follow.
So, let us ask: "why not now, why not here, why not us?" AMEN
Monday, January 03, 2005
A HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL!
Tragedy & Hope:
Responding to -- & learning from – The Boxing Day Tsunami
GEM 045:01:02
On Boxing Day, the world learned of a truly horrific natural disaster, due to a 9.0 Magnitude earthquake off Indonesia; which triggered tsunami [“tidal”] waves that moved across the Indian Ocean at speeds of up to 500 mph, inundating shorelines from Sumatra to Somalia, and leading to a death toll that has now mounted well in excess of 100,000 lives.
In the days since that event, a global response has been initiated, and a massive aid effort is under way. Here in Montserrat, it is currently proposed that an Account be set up at the Royal Bank in Brades, downstairs the Red Cross Building; so that we can join together to give generously to others in their need, even as we have been given to in our need over the past decade. Let us also remember the victims -- especially the traumatized children -- in our prayers.
We must also learn and heed a vital lesson: sadly, here was no warning for those on the shoreline, because no regional warning network was in place in one of the most seismically active regions of the world. Also, even in Thailand (which participates in the Pacific Tsunami network – the only fully functioning large-scale system in the world), there was not a quick response to the warning issued by that Hawaii-based network fifteen minutes after the earthquake (which was then thought to be Mag. 8.0 – i.e. 1/10 its actual scale, and had been evaluated as posing no tsunami threat to the PACIFIC – as opposed to Indian Ocean – basin). If warning had been given, except for Aceh province, where the lead time was very short indeed, millions of people could literally have walked away from the threatened coastal zone.
So, now, there are calls to set up a global tsunami network, now that over 100,000 people have paid with their lives.
Here in the Caribbean, CDERA, the regional disaster response agency, is again urgently calling for extending the existing Puerto-Rico and USVI tsunami warning net across the region; for, we too are living in a very seismically active region, but have not hitherto been able to prioritise and fund such a network. This is a significant concern, for, as much as a decade ago, a research paper was published that explored the scenario of a Krakatoa-scale explosion of Kick ‘em Jenny, the very active undersea volcano off NW Grenada: within five minutes, a 150 ft wall of water could hit northern Grenada. Over the next ninety minutes, the rest of the EC could see waves of up to 50 – 90 ft: two to three times as high as those that have just devastated the Indian Ocean’s coastlines.
Jamaica’s South coast would be perhaps three hours away for such a wave. Nor is its North Coast “safe”: that coast is vulnerable to earthquake-triggered waves from the highly seismically active Cayman Trench; which would also threaten the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Cuba, and Belize and its neighbouring Central American countries. Guyana, too, is vulnerable, with many low-lying, heavily populated coastal areas. Puerto Rico has suffered five significant tsunami events in recorded history and has off its North coast a deposit from a huge undersea landslip. The region is also exposed to the Atlantic Basin threat from a volcano in the Canary Islands that is threatening to collapse and trigger a massive landslide into the sea.
Why, then, has there been so little action to date?
First, because such a warning network would cost many millions of dollars to create (and even more to run from year to year for many decades – most of the time, with no obvious benefits!), and because tsunamis and similar events are relatively rare. So, given human frailties, many other urgent issues take priority and the tectonic hazards faced by the region are often simply forgotten. (Even in the case of hurricanes, which are far more frequent in our region, people rapidly forget the lessons from the last big strike and become careless.) Also, it is only over the past decade or so that the scientists have become confident that they can reliably predict the amplitude of tsunamis: there are notorious reports of official warnings being issued for waves that did in fact arrive when predicted – but they were only six inches or so high.
No wonder it has been so hard to create and sustain the long-term mass support and resulting political will to act -- until now that over 100,000 people have paid with their lives.
Unfortunately, this pattern is all too familiar. What are we in Montserrat doing about the long-term trends with our Soufriere Hills Volcano? What about the region’s vulnerability to extreme weather events, as was demonstrated by Hurricane Ivan just a few months ago? Have we really thought about the implications of the successful Uganda ABC model for fighting AIDS: Abstinence first of all; Being Faithful to one’s spouse; only then, Condoms? [What are the implications of the recently reported statistics that 70% of the students in the MSS are sexually active – in a country with well over 80% attachment to the various churches?] Are we investing in the education system, business incubators and transparent government and governance culture that are desperately needed for us to be competitive in the emerging global age? And, more . . .
So, now, we too plainly need to act: let’s talk, let’s pray . . . and let’s give generously. AMEN
Tragedy & Hope:
Responding to -- & learning from – The Boxing Day Tsunami
GEM 045:01:02
On Boxing Day, the world learned of a truly horrific natural disaster, due to a 9.0 Magnitude earthquake off Indonesia; which triggered tsunami [“tidal”] waves that moved across the Indian Ocean at speeds of up to 500 mph, inundating shorelines from Sumatra to Somalia, and leading to a death toll that has now mounted well in excess of 100,000 lives.
In the days since that event, a global response has been initiated, and a massive aid effort is under way. Here in Montserrat, it is currently proposed that an Account be set up at the Royal Bank in Brades, downstairs the Red Cross Building; so that we can join together to give generously to others in their need, even as we have been given to in our need over the past decade. Let us also remember the victims -- especially the traumatized children -- in our prayers.
We must also learn and heed a vital lesson: sadly, here was no warning for those on the shoreline, because no regional warning network was in place in one of the most seismically active regions of the world. Also, even in Thailand (which participates in the Pacific Tsunami network – the only fully functioning large-scale system in the world), there was not a quick response to the warning issued by that Hawaii-based network fifteen minutes after the earthquake (which was then thought to be Mag. 8.0 – i.e. 1/10 its actual scale, and had been evaluated as posing no tsunami threat to the PACIFIC – as opposed to Indian Ocean – basin). If warning had been given, except for Aceh province, where the lead time was very short indeed, millions of people could literally have walked away from the threatened coastal zone.
So, now, there are calls to set up a global tsunami network, now that over 100,000 people have paid with their lives.
Here in the Caribbean, CDERA, the regional disaster response agency, is again urgently calling for extending the existing Puerto-Rico and USVI tsunami warning net across the region; for, we too are living in a very seismically active region, but have not hitherto been able to prioritise and fund such a network. This is a significant concern, for, as much as a decade ago, a research paper was published that explored the scenario of a Krakatoa-scale explosion of Kick ‘em Jenny, the very active undersea volcano off NW Grenada: within five minutes, a 150 ft wall of water could hit northern Grenada. Over the next ninety minutes, the rest of the EC could see waves of up to 50 – 90 ft: two to three times as high as those that have just devastated the Indian Ocean’s coastlines.
Jamaica’s South coast would be perhaps three hours away for such a wave. Nor is its North Coast “safe”: that coast is vulnerable to earthquake-triggered waves from the highly seismically active Cayman Trench; which would also threaten the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Cuba, and Belize and its neighbouring Central American countries. Guyana, too, is vulnerable, with many low-lying, heavily populated coastal areas. Puerto Rico has suffered five significant tsunami events in recorded history and has off its North coast a deposit from a huge undersea landslip. The region is also exposed to the Atlantic Basin threat from a volcano in the Canary Islands that is threatening to collapse and trigger a massive landslide into the sea.
Why, then, has there been so little action to date?
First, because such a warning network would cost many millions of dollars to create (and even more to run from year to year for many decades – most of the time, with no obvious benefits!), and because tsunamis and similar events are relatively rare. So, given human frailties, many other urgent issues take priority and the tectonic hazards faced by the region are often simply forgotten. (Even in the case of hurricanes, which are far more frequent in our region, people rapidly forget the lessons from the last big strike and become careless.) Also, it is only over the past decade or so that the scientists have become confident that they can reliably predict the amplitude of tsunamis: there are notorious reports of official warnings being issued for waves that did in fact arrive when predicted – but they were only six inches or so high.
No wonder it has been so hard to create and sustain the long-term mass support and resulting political will to act -- until now that over 100,000 people have paid with their lives.
Unfortunately, this pattern is all too familiar. What are we in Montserrat doing about the long-term trends with our Soufriere Hills Volcano? What about the region’s vulnerability to extreme weather events, as was demonstrated by Hurricane Ivan just a few months ago? Have we really thought about the implications of the successful Uganda ABC model for fighting AIDS: Abstinence first of all; Being Faithful to one’s spouse; only then, Condoms? [What are the implications of the recently reported statistics that 70% of the students in the MSS are sexually active – in a country with well over 80% attachment to the various churches?] Are we investing in the education system, business incubators and transparent government and governance culture that are desperately needed for us to be competitive in the emerging global age? And, more . . .
So, now, we too plainly need to act: let’s talk, let’s pray . . . and let’s give generously. AMEN
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